The US Open continues as Aryna Sabalenka faces Qinwen Zheng while Beatriz Haddad Maia goes up against Karolina Muchova in the quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour
US Open
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Selected QF Matches
4 September 2024
Aryna Sabalenka 27/100 | Qinwen Zheng 26/10
This looks set to be an enthralling rematch of this year’s Aussie Open final. Aryna Sabalenka eased into her 4th consecutive US Open quarterfinal after a comfortable straight-sets win against the industrious Elise Mertens. The Belarusian simply had too much firepower for the Belgian, hitting a stunning 41 winners to win her 9th consecutive match.
She is winning matches comfortably despite playing within herself. Sabalenka won in Cincinnati, and she has only dropped one set during the last nine matches.
This has been a strange old season for Sabalenka. She won her 2nd Grand Slam title in Melbourne, but off-court tragedy severely affected the middle part of her season. But one thing is for sure: Sabalenka has turned into a Grand Slam behemoth over the past few years. Victory in this match would take her to her 9th Grand Slam semifinal in twelve appearances.
Sabalenka finished runner-up to Gauff here last season and seems laser-focused on securing a maiden New York crown. Also, the Belarusian has only served seven double faults all tournament (which is often a bugbear in her game).
Things have not been quite so serene for Chinese superstar Qinwen Zheng, who has required three sets in four of her matches this fortnight. Her serve has been truly exceptional thus far, bailing her out of trouble when her general play has been a bit error-strewn.
She has served 48 aces in the tournament thus far (more than double that of any of the remaining players). She won 81% of her first-serve points in her round of 16 win against Donna Vekic (in a rematch of their Olympic final).
Zheng obviously rose to prominence with her fabulous runner-up finish at this year’s Aussie Open final. But she did reach the quarterfinals here last season (where she lost to a certain Belarusian brute).
She lost focus following her Aussie Open run but has turned things around in recent months, winning in Palermo prior to that outstanding Olympic victory. Zheng will need to shake off some significant scar tissue if she wishes to take down the formidable Sabalenka.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three sets 29/10
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning both of their matches in straight-sets canters. Sabalenka only dropped five games in each of those matches and will obviously go into this match as a massive favourite (especially considering last year’s quarterfinal win).
But I think the Chinese star is probably better poised to trouble Sabalenka this time around. That monumental Olympic victory will give her massive self-belief.
She has won 80% of her first-serve points in the tournament and Sabalenka is probably due a wobbly serving match. However, Sabalenka will be wily enough to win in three.
Beatriz Haddad Maia 7/4 | Karolina Muchova 43/100
Brazilian lefty Beatriz Haddad Maia has been a bit of a surprise this fortnight (despite being seeded 22nd in the draw). The Brazilian has picked up some big results in recent years. She finished runner-up to Halep at the 2022 WTA 1000 event in Toronto.
She then produced a heroic showing in Paris last season, reaching the semifinals of a Grand Slam for the first time in her career. But things have been a bit humdrum this year. She had only reached one semifinal going into the North American hardcourt campaign (in Abu Dhabi).
But she did show some life right on the eve of this event, finishing runner-up in Cleveland (where she was seeded 1st). Still, I don’t think that many expected her to go deep this fortnight. But she really hasn’t looked back since dropping her first set against Avanesyan.
She was particularly impressive in a rollicking 6-3, 6-1 win over 15th seed Kalinskaya (though that match was tainted by some Hawkeye controversy). And she just ended two-time runner-up Caroline Wozniacki’s bid to finally win in New York, hitting 40 winners to 39 unforced errors in a marathon three-set match.
She exposed Wozniacki’s backhand wing with that lefty serve out wide. But she was particularly impressive at the net, winning an incredible 89% of her points venturing forward (which makes sense when you look at her doubles pedigree).
Karolina Muchova is back to her formidable best. The 28-year-old Czech enjoyed a terrific 2023 campaign, finishing runner-up at the French Open before a fantastic semifinal run in these championships (she also finished runner-up in Cincinnati).
But she injured her wrist during that deep US Open run and she would ultimately require surgery and miss ten months of top-level action. She eased herself back into proceedings this season, picking up a solid runner-up finish in Palermo.
She is yet to drop a set this week, upsetting 2024 surprise package Jasmine Paolini in their round of 16 match. The Italian just couldn’t live with Muchova’s variety, struggling to reply to her array of slices and drop-shots.
The Czech started slowly, trailing 3-1 in the opener. But she settled into the match and would only drop five points on serve from that point on, winning 11 out of 14 points at the net. Muchova – who will be participating in her 6th and Slam quarterfinal- is playing wonderfully balanced tennis, controlling the fundamentals while adding some sublime touches on the way.
The Verdict: Muchova to win in straight sets 99/100
Muchova leads the head-to-head 3-0, winning their previous encounter in three sets at last year’s Cincinnati Open. I think that Muchova is starting to look like the player who took the Grand Slam stage by storm last season.
She has won 60 out of 79 points at the net during this tournament and I think her all-round game is just superior to Haddad Maia’s. She is serving efficiently and playing with some real pizzaz (reminiscent of Alcaraz’s 2022 US Open run).
