The US Open continues. Aryna Sabalenka faces Emma Navarro, while Jessica Pegula faces Karolina Muchova in the semi-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour
US Open
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Selected SF Matches
6 September 2024
Aryna Sabalenka 2/9 | Emma Navarro 32/10
This promises to be a fascinating clash of styles, with Belarusian powerhouse Aryna Sabalenka looking to win her 3rd Grand Slam title against nuggety American Emma Navarro.
Aryna Sabalenka reached her 4th consecutive US Open semifinal with a comprehensive straight-sets win over Qinwen Zheng. The two-time Aussie Open champ finished runner-up in New York last year, and victory here would secure a 4th consecutive hardcourt Grand Slam final.
And I have been really impressed with her control during this tournament. She once again kept her serve in check against Zheng, committing just three double-faults while winning 73% of her first-serve points. She has played within herself this fortnight (which may be a direct result of the excruciatingly humid conditions).
But she knew when to apply the pressure against Zheng, winning 67% of her 2nd serve return points. She knows that she can pretty much outgun anyone from the back of the court (Swiatek included). But she really seems to be choosing the right moments to unleash her most ferocious tennis.
New York-born Emma Navarro has taken these championships by storm, reaching her maiden Grand Slam semifinal with a gritty victory over Spanish comeback queen Paula Badosa. The victory perfectly encapsulated Navarro’s game.
The billionaire heiress isn’t going to blast her opponent away from the back of the court (though she has power and will use it on occasion). But her chief weapons are variety and determination.
She barely gives her opponent the same ball twice and she runs for everything. In many ways, Navarro reminds me of your typical clay court specialist (with a little more raw power). Badosa fought back valiantly after losing the first set, leading 5-1 in the 2nd.
But Navarro stormed back in typically combative fashion, winning the last six games (breaking the Spaniard three times in the process). Navarro has negotiated a really tricky draw, beating the likes of Kostyuk and Gauff in three-set thrillers. She will need to utilise all her variety against Sabalenka, throwing in plenty of backhand slices and drop-shots to test the Belarusian’s mobility.
She served efficiently against Badosa, winning 71% of her first-serve points despite not serving an ace.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 63/100
These two currently share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece. Both meetings came this year, with Navarro winning in three at Indian Wells before Sabalenka returned the favour, winning in straight sets at Roland Garros. This really could be a wonderful semifinal clash.
Zheng made the mistake of trying to go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka from the back of the court. Navarro is a far craftier operator whose eclectic blend of off-speed shots could destabilize the Belarusian. Still, Sabalenka has looked more measured this year and she should be able to withstand Navarro’s idiosyncratic gameplan.
Jessica Pegula 57/100 | Karolina Muchova 27/20
This is turning out to be an absolutely incredible tournament for American tennis, with Jessica Pegula’s upset win over Iga Swiatek making it four American semifinalists out of a possible eight.
Pegula’s victory over the World No.1 feels like a watershed moment in her career. She was previously 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals and another defeat could have been disastrous for her confidence (just look at Andrey Rublev).
But she managed to see off an off-colour Swiatek quite comfortably, grinding down the Pole with the relentless depth of her groundstrokes. She actually broke Swiatek in the Pole’s first service game (the first time Swiatek had been broken in 26 games).
I had a feeling that Pegula was going to shine in this event. She looked hyper-motivated during the North American hardcourt precursors, winning in Toronto before finishing runner-up to Sabalenka in Cincinnati. In fact, the quarterfinal win over Swiatek takes her 14-1 in her last 15 competitive matches.
You have to admire the gumption of 28-year-old Karolina Muchova. The Czech has been plagued by injuries since her junior days (imagine what she could have accomplished had she remained injury-free).
Regardless, Muchova has now moved into her 4th Grand Slam semifinal (and a 2nd consecutive New York semifinal berth). She badly injured her wrist here last season and would go on to miss ten months following surgery. For her to progress to the semifinals again- without dropping a set- is a testament to her quality and determination.
And she was once again battling health issues during her quarterfinal clash with Haddad Maia, with a stomach bug forcing her to seek some off-court solace in the 2nd set.
But she was utterly professional out there, taking control of proceedings and avoiding the type of arduous rallies that the Brazilian lefty enjoys. She hit more winners than unforced errors and won 78% of her first-serve points.
Arguably the most naturally skilled player on tour, the multi-faceted Muchova will provide a stern test to the somewhat more robotic hitting power of Jessica Pegula.
The Verdict: Muchova to win in three 46/10
Pegula won their only previous head-to-head meeting, beating the Czech in three sets at the recent Cincinnati Open. I have wavered back and forth on this one. Pegula- playing in front of fanatical fans and in amazing form- will certainly go into this match as the favourite.
But Muchova is a unique talent who doesn’t conform to expectations. Lest we forget, this will be the Czech’s 4th Grand Slam semifinal and only Pegula’s 1st. Muchova has been playing some incredible tennis this fortnight and her variety could be exactly what is needed to break Pegula’s metronomic baseline play.
