The China Open continues this week as Daniil Medvedev faces Gael Monfils while Andrey Rublev goes up against Pablo Carreno Busta in the round of 32. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 250
China Open
China National Tennis Centre
Selected RO 32 matches – 26 September
Daniil Medvedev 21/100 | Gael Monfils 33/10
This promises to be a blockbuster first-round clash. Daniil Medvedev has enjoyed a rather curious campaign. The consistent Russian comes into this year’s China Open with a highly creditable 39-16 record.
Having said that, he is yet to win a title this year and lost both of his recent Laver Cup ties. Medvedev has still managed some strong results this season, finishing runner-up at the Aussie Open and Indian Wells Masters.
His form surprisingly tapered off at the start of the North American hardcourt series (which is usually his wheelhouse). He was handed 2nd round exits in Montreal and Cincinnati before being thoroughly dismantled by Sinner in the US Open quarterfinal.
Medvedev will be hoping for a pick-me-up in an event where he finished runner-up last year. These hardcourts aren’t especially quick, allowing Medvedev the space to hang back miles behind the baseline. He is currently rocking a three-match losing streak and he could do with an improved outing this week.
38-year-old Frenchman Gael Monfils has enjoyed a decent campaign (especially for a man at his point in his career). The beloved Frenchman brings a positive 21-19 record into this event.
He has reached two semifinals this season (in Qatar and Mallorca). He has always flirted with contention in some big tournaments, reaching the 4th round at Indian Wells and the third round at Wimbledon.
He wasn’t exceptional during the North American hardcourt, culminating in a hard-fought second round defeat to Casper Rudd at the US Open. But the mercurial Frenchman gave us a taste of his brilliance in Cincinnati, picking up one of the biggest wins of his career against Carlos Alcaraz.
Monfils still has that inalienable ability to deliver on the big stage and he won’t be overawed by this draw. In fact, I think he will relish it.
The Verdict: Medvedev to win in straight sets 64/100
These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Medvedev won their most recent encounter at this year’s Monte Carlo Masters. Interestingly, Monfils leads their hardcourt rivalry 2-1.
This should prove to be a fascinating contest. Monfils has simplified his game this season, conserving his energy by looking to play more first-strike tennis. That has led to some inconsistency and plenty of unforced errors.
I don’t think Medvedev will mind Monfils taking the initiative and will just hang back in the pocket and look to counter. This match – especially on these surfaces – is just tailormade for the counterpunching stylistics of Medvedev.
Andrey Rublev 21/100 | Pablo Carreno Busta 33/10
This has been another typically infuriating season for the uber-talented Andrey Rublev. The Russian brings a solid 37-18 record into this event, winning titles in Hong Kong and Madrid.
He was impressive during the North American hardcourt swing, finishing runner-up in Montreal and picking up quarterfinals in Washington and Cincinnati. But his season has really been defined by more Grand Slam disappointment (and embarrassment).
He threw tantrums during early exits at the French Open and Wimbledon Championships. But his petulance went to a whole new level during his US Open 4th round defeat to Grigor Dimitrov.
He required a medical timeout after injuring himself in a rather cringe display of frustration. This will be his first outing since that US Open exit and it will be interesting to see his frame of mind.
Former two-time US Open semifinalist Pablo Carreno Busta returned to action in May, having spent upwards of six months on the sidelines due to elbow surgery.
The 33-year-old Spaniard took some time to readjust to life on tour, only registering his first tour-level win of the season in Montreal. But the hardcourt specialist soon hit his stride, reaching the final 16 in Cincinnati before a brilliant semifinal run in Winston-Salem.
He was forced to withdraw from his semifinal due to injury and I think that affected his US Open preparations (he lost to Arthur Cazaux in straight sets in his first-round match).
He did feature for Spain at in recent Davis Cup matches, taking down Jordan Thompson in his sole singles outing. Carreno Busta is a dangerous dark horse presence in any draw.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in three 26/10
Rublev leads Carreno Busta 2-0 in their head-to-head rivalry. Having said that, their last meeting came all the way back at the 2019 Hamburg European Open. Carreno Busta has been steadily improving of late and his net-play seems to have improved during his brief sabbatical.
You can expect plenty of long rallies and I think this could go the distance. Still, Rublev’s superior physical conditioning should see him over the line.
