The China Open continues this week as Aryna Sabalenka faces Madison Keys while Qinwen Zheng goes up against Amanda Anisimova in the round of 16. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
China Open
China National Tennis Centre
Selected RO 16 matches – 2 October
Aryna Sabalenka 1/5 | Madison Keys 34/10
World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka extended her current winning streak to 14 matches with a comprehensive straight-sets win over American Ashlynn Krueger. Sabalenka was brutal on Krueger’s second delivery, winning a staggering 86% of her second serve return points.
Sabalenka has only dropped nine games thus far as she looks to close the rankings gap on current World No.1 Iga Swiatek. This season, Sabalenka has truly underlined her status as the leading hardcourt player in the world. She won both hardcourt slams this year (her 2nd Aussie Open title and a maiden US Open title).
She also won the Cincinnati Open (which was where her current 14-match winning streak started). Sabalenka has an excellent overall record in China, with that victory over Krueger taking her to a record of 39-9 record in the country. It’s hard to envision anyone stopping the Belarusian in this kind of form.
This has been an extremely frustrating campaign for hard-hitting American Madison Keys. She was forced to miss the first part of the season due to a shoulder injury, only returning to action at the Indian Wells Masters.
She then came to life during the clay-court swing, reaching the semifinals in Madrid before a quarterfinal run in Rome. She put a lovely exclamation point on her clay-court form by winning an 8th career title in Strasbourg.
She then suffered yet more injury heartbreak, forced to withdraw from her Wimbledon round of 16 clash with Jasmine Paolini (this time with a minor hamstring strain).
She was forced to leave the court in tears and the injury severely affected her North American hardcourt campaign. But she has looked back to her best in Beijing, losing just nine games against the pair of Sorribes Tormo and Haddad Maia (the same amount of games lost by Sabalenka).
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 56/100
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 3-1. She won their most recent encounter in three sets at last year’s US Open. Keys is one of the few players out there who can match Sabalenka’s power from the baseline.
She lacks the accuracy of Sabalenka and can turn into a real unforced error machine when the tide goes against her. Keys had a solid 71% first-serve percentage against Haddad Maia and she will need that weapon to be in tiptop shape once again. I just think this encounter will be a step too far for the American.
Qinwen Zheng 36/100 | Amanda Anisimova 2/1
Spurred on by a packed Diamond Court, Qinwen Zheng continued her triumphant homecoming with a comfortable 6-3, 6-2 victory over Nadia Podoroska. She never had it all her own way in the match, having to save five break points in the 3rd game of the match.
But the Olympic champion and Aussie Open runner-up rallied in brilliant fashion, going on to dominate on serve and ease into the final 16. Zheng won a stunning 87% of her first-serve points against Podoroska, serving five aces along the way.
Zheng’s gold medal triumph in Paris has elevated her to icon status in her home country and she will be desperate to give the fans more of what they want. She will next face 34th seed Amanda Anisimova in a rematch of their recent US Open first-round match (won by Zheng in three).
Amanda Anisimova once again flaunted her dominance over Daria Kasatkina, extending her head-to-head advantage over the Russian to 5-0 following an excellent display of hardcourt tennis.
Anisimova struggled somewhat in her opening encounter against Osorio but looked back to her best against Kasatkina. This has been a real roller-coaster of a campaign for the American.
She returned to action at the start of the year after taking some time away to focus on her mental health. And she never missed a beat, reaching the final 16 at the Aussie Open.
She missed the first four WTA 1000 events of the season and would lose her first-round matches in Madrid and Rome. But the hugely talented American then produced the performance of her career, beating four top-ten players en route to a runner-up finish in Toronto.
She withdrew from the Korean Open due to injury but her body appears to be holding up quite nicely on these hard Beijing surfaces.
The Verdict: Anisimova to win in three 58/10
Zheng leads the head-to-head 1-0, obviously winning that blockbuster first-round tie at this year’s US Open. Could Zheng succumb to the pressure of playing in front of such an expectant home crowd?
Anisimova was excellent against Kasatkina, dominating with powerful groundstrokes off both wings. Zheng’s serve will help her dictate the tempo of the match but don’t underestimate Anisimova’s ability to redirect power. Anisimova is a pure ball striker and she seems to be timing the ball magnificently. I have a feeling that we could be in for a surprise here.
