Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Thursday’s racing coming your way from Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs.
Gulfstream Park Best Bets
Race 4 (Maiden Claiming): No12 – VICTORY CRUSADE
Trainer: Mike Maker – Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
The fillies again take centre stage here with VICTORY CRUSADE narrowly preferred to Nenita. The selection needs to improve from one start over five furlongs here last month when beating less than beat her, but nevertheless, she’s closely related to a filly that won eight times over the sprint distances and figures to take a fairly big step forward here. Nenita has in contrast been busy here through the spring, and with better form, since she cut back to shorter trips is going to be hard to beat. The action may be concentrated on the outer, with Auburn also getting involved from the 11th post.
Prediction: 12-13-11
Race 5 (Maiden Special Weight): No11 – BASELINE DRIVE
Trainer: Chad Brown – Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Ortiz has his usual plum book of rides on the card and BASELINE DRIVE looks a notable jewel. The Point Of Entry filly has given every indication in her work that Brown has her popping her corks for this. Mo of the West has the points on the board already having troubled the judge behind Key Biscayne here on May Day. Her connections will hope this is in fact D-Day for the daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo. Independent Miss has the outside post but if breaking well can also earn.
Prediction: 11-5-13
Race 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming): No2 – MIDTOWN ROSE
Trainer: Saffie Joseph – Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
MIDTOWN ROSE is working back to the form level that saw her produce an 88 Beyer figure against Florida-breds on her final start of 2019. Having said that, she’s only a smidgeon away from getting there, as her two seconds and a third in recent starts close to that level bear out. Her main foe is undoubtedly Sky Chaser who is looking to complete a hat-trick. She took out an optional claimer when the race was transferred to the main track from turf at the end of last month after previously landing a non-winners of three. Archumybaby is part of the Joseph entry and can boast an impressive tally of a dozen career wins, most recently at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. However, this is her first run here, and off a lengthy break.
Prediction: 2-4-7
Race 9 (Maiden Claiming): No8 – NO NO NINA
Trainer: Christophe Clement – Jockey: Samy Camacho
NO NO NINA brings the best credentials to the table and should deliver for her top connections. The More Than Ready filly chased home Shell Beach Party over track and trip three weeks ago to indicate she’s close to a breakthrough. While not as well-drawn here, she can have the measure of Morning Line favourite Shez Stuck Up, a daughter of Graydar who has shown promise with a couple of near-misses from just three outings, but has to contend with the 15 post. Princess Avril can also get into it, with these three dominating.
Prediction: 8-15-5
Churchill Downs Best Bets
Race 2 (Maiden Special Weight): No3 – BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES
Trainer: Mark Casse – Jockey: Jose Ortiz
With a bunch of roughies around her on the inner, BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES can make an immediate impact for a trainer who is well versed in getting them ready. The daughter of Hard Spun has done everything right in her workouts and can trump an equally well-regarded rival in Bossy Moment, a Street Boss filly from the Steve Asmussen barn. One to shake up the exotics could be Great Jazz, who is also the subject of favourable reports.
Prediction: 3-11-5
Race 5 (Starter Optional Claiming): No1 – HEAVENS WHISPER
Trainer: Paul Holthus – Jockey: Jo Talamo
HEAVENS WHISPER has a couple of tortoises outside her and looks booked for a saloon passage to victory along the rail. The daughter of Japanese stallion Hat Trick proved a hugely competitive mare in better races than this last year when rarely failing to light up the board. She needed her first start back in an AOC last month and that run should have put sufficient cutting edge on her to take this in her stride. Crazy Sexy Munny threatens to continue a bountiful year that’s yielded three straight wins at Golden Gate and a second to the useful Mulberry at Will Rogers. She is something of a winning machine but this is tougher.
Prediction: 1-12-6
Race 9 (Allowance): No2 – MORTICIAN
Trainer: George Arnold II – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
With her Giants Causeway triumph here still relatively fresh in the memory, MORTICIAN can make a victorious return after connections thought twice about retirement for the Twirling Candy filly. She signed off for 2019 with a splendid runner-up finish in a Grade 3 at Keeneland, after which her trainer opted to train her for a race at the Breeders’ Cup, taking stock of how well older distaffers fared at that event last fall. The six-year-old is in the right part of the gate (2) and can thwart Captiva Island Stakes scorer Girls Know Best, who aside from that, placed in two other stakes races at the Championship Meet here. Play On also deserves consideration from the rail, courtesy of her very smart form at the Fair Grounds.
Prediction: 2-8-1
