Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Grafton, Australia on 19 October 2021.
Best Bet: TARA JASMINE (Race 6)
Value Bet: MANAGUA (Race 5)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
5 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
2 | 2 | 5 | |
11 | |||
12 |
Cost: R90.00
Race 4.
This looks to be a tricky race with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. Matters are further complicated by the fact that there is an unraced runner in the field, so a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for the gelding should be respected. OUR CASTAWAY has only had the two runs to date, finishing close up to the winner on both occasions, the latest when third over six furlongs, just over one and a half lengths behind the winner. He has first run for his new trainer and returns from a 111 week absence, but he has had the benefit of five barrier trials. The fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them and despite facing a wideish gate eight, he could be the one to side with here.
Although MILES AHEAD is recorded as finishing fifth in his last start over 1300M, he was only just over a length and a half back from the winner. He only saw daylight at the 200M mark in that contest, so did well to finish as close to the winner as he did. He has cracked pole position and could be the one to pick up the pieces should the top choice fluff his lines.
DOSS’S EXPRESS ran on Sunday where he finished fourth over 1410M, just under four lengths behind the winner, but he hung out the whole way down the home straight that day and was hampered at the 150M pole. He is drawn one outside the latter and should give a good account of himself in this line-up.
Race 5.
With the late scratching of one of his main rivals, the door may have opened for today’s value bet, MANAGUA to chalk up his second career victory. He has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, culminating with a half length victory last time out over six furlongs at this track, despite being bumped at the start and carried wide into the home stretch. He returns from a lengthy 59 week break, but has had two barrier trials and could prove good enough to complete his double, jumping from draw five.
WINE O’CLOCK followed up his penultimate run victory over this c&d with a second place finish when stepping up to seven furlongs, just under a half length adrift of the winner. He stayed in well that day and although having to overcome a wide gate eleven, he should be right up there when they hit the line.
ROSE BOUQUET is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has consistent formlines to her name, finishing second in her latest outing over 1300m, one and a half lengths behind the winner and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners from that contest subsequently winning. From her kinder draw two, she should give the males a good run for their money.
Race 6.
TARA JASMINE is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she has won two of her last three runs, the latest when putting two lengths between herself and the opposition. She was slow away that day and found herself second last turning into the home straight, but she finished her race off strongly to win easing down approaching the line. She will have to negotiate draw eight, but she should once again be doing her best work late and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
SEE IT THRU is seldom far off the action having finished second once and third three times in his last four outings. He ended up in one of those third spots last time out over 1300M, one length back from the winner after being hampered down at the start and then again at the 200M pole. From his handy draw two and with better luck in running today, he could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
BEL ACADEMY has won three of his last four runs and went from jump to wire before being victorious by 2.3L in his last start over five furlongs. He faces a wide draw twelve out of thirteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy and should be involved in the finish.
Race 7.
As with the previous race, the winner of this contest could be a filly, but in this case, the 3yr old PROPHETESS who sat just behind the leader before hitting the front at the 150M mark and then going on to record a 2.3L victory over five furlongs to post her maiden win. She takes on stronger here, but she has pulled pole position and has her peak run after returning from a 19 week break.
MARKWELL DREAMER won his penultimate start over five furlongs and then finished fourth next time out when stepping up to six furlongs, just under four lengths back from the winner, notwithstanding racing four wide approaching the home turn. He gets a cozy gate two and should turn in another solid performance here.
HEY WAYNE is a speedy sort who won his maiden race last time out over 1100M by 2.3L. He takes on stronger today and has a wideish draw eight, but on the plus side, he will have 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice and should be included in all bets.
