Winning Form share their best bets and tips for Wednesday’s racing coming your way from Gosford on 30 November 2022.
Best Bet: CHANGE IS COMING (Race 8)
Value Bet: LOVERO (Race 5)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
6 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
4 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
8 | 9 | 2 |
|
| 12 | 12 |
|
| 10 | 1 |
|
Cost: R150.00
Race 5
LOVERO has cracked pole position and won her maiden race last time out over 1100M by putting two and a half lengths between herself and the opposition. She takes on stronger here, but she may well be up to the task at hand and as such, she is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
LAROUPE missed out on her hat-trick after victories over five furlongs and 1100M when finishing eighth last time out over six furlongs, just under six and a half lengths behind the winner. She on the other hand, is drawn the widest of them all in gate nine, but she will be looking to bounce back to winning ways today.
QUILTING won over five furlongs on debut and then came from some way back to dead-heating next time out over 1100m when returning from a 21-week break. She gets gate six and the trio is very much on the cards.
Race 6
There are five unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connections believe that they can win first-time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners FAST RESPONSE may well prove to be the best. He finished fourth first time out over five furlongs, two and a half lengths back from the winner, but he did come three wide into the home straight that day, before staying on well over the closing stages. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected and from a handy draw four, he could be the one that they all have to beat and give jockey Tom Sherry the first two legs of the day’s Jackpot.
SHIGERU finished seventh on debut over 1100M and then showed the expected improvement to finish third next time out when stepping up to 1100M, three lengths adrift of the victor, notwithstanding jumping awkwardly and returning from a 23-week absence. He would have come on further with that run under his belt and is sure to put his pole position to good use.
CONSENZA is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she was bumped at the start before battling all the way down to the wire to end up in third place last time out over 1100M, just over two and a half lengths off the winner. She has pulled gate seven and should be included in all bets.
Race 7
As with the previous race, there are a number of unraced runners in this contest, so the same comment in respect of keeping an eye on the betting moves applies here as well. KISSING SUPIDO was slow away, but struck the front at the 200M pole, before being run out of it late to finish fifth on debut over five furlongs, three and a half lengths behind the winner. The gelding would have gained much from that experience and whilst returning from a 26-week spell, he has had the benefit of three barrier trials, winning the first two and finishing third in the latest to showcase his well-being. From gate six, he could be the one to side with today.
OAKFIELD PAPERBARK is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she put her disappointing penultimate run over six furlongs behind her when finishing third next time out over 1100M, 1.2L behind the winner. She was returning from a 35-week break that day and was bumped at the start, before making good late progress over the latter stages. In addition, her jockey put up 0.5kgs overweight. From a cosy draw four, she should keep the top pick honest.
CALAMITY FOX jumped awkwardly and found himself towards the back of the field, before finding a strong finish to end up in eighth place last time out over five furlongs, six lengths back from the winner, when returning from a longer 30-week absence. He has to overcome a wide draw thirteen, but he will have ex-SA jockey Glyn Schofield in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.
Race 8
With the late scratching of one of his main rivals, the door may have opened for today’s best bet, CHANGE IS COMING to chalk up his second career victory. He was slow away, but quickly went forward to race just behind the leaders and then quicken accelerated smartly to win his latest outing over 1100M by one and a half lengths and the form of that race has been franked. He has his first run after a 17-week rest, but his two barrier trials have yielded a second and a win in the latest. He has pulled gate five and could give jockey Kerrin McEvoy the last two legs of the day’s Jackpot.
I’LL TELL YOU NOW had his consistency rewarded with a 0.8L victory last time out over five furlongs. He jumped awkwardly in that contest and came three wide into the home straight, so that effort was commendable. He is drawn the widest of them all in gate twelve, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much gas and he could rank as the biggest threat to the top pick.
ASPEN CHASE, on the other hand is drawn in pole position. He jumped awkwardly and hung in down the home stretch last time out when finishing sixth over five furlongs, just under three and a half lengths behind the winner and with him having his peak run since returning from a 20 week absence, he should be involved in the finish.
