UFC 291’s main event is a long-awaited sequel to one of the best fights to grace mixed martial arts. Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje go toe-to-toe, knuckle-to-knuckle, yet again for the “BMF” title.
Main Event
Dustin Poirier 62/100 | Justin Gaethje 23/20
(Lightweight BMF)
The second edition of this barn burner fight between two electrifying technicians Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will determine the new BMF in the UFC.
Dustin Poirier (29-7, 1NC) has proven how durable and gritty he can be, alongside an unassuming power that lies well hidden in his technique. The 34-year-old perennial title contender possess some of the finest boxing in the division.
His jab has sting, and his left-hand packs a heavy load, but most of “The Diamond’s” best work is done “in the phone booth”. 14 finishes (tied 5th all-time), 10 KO/TKO wins (tied 6th all-time), 6.18 strikes landed per minute (5th all-time among LW) and all against champions and former champions including a few of the biggest names the UFC has to offer.
🚨 DUSTIN POIRIER 🆚 JUSTIN GAETHJE 2
— ARENA (@MMArena_) July 28, 2023
LE FACE À FACE 👀
SAMEDI C'EST LA GUERRE 🩸 #UFC291 pic.twitter.com/Lrx5KxXPkB
If you’re looking for a fighter to get you off your seat, win or lose, Justin Gaethje (24-4) is your guy. The 34-year-old seasoned veteran is not nicknamed “The Highlight” for nothing, bringing all action, all the time.
He unsuccessfully battled legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight strap, alongside another falling short when he shared the octagon with Charles Oliviera. When calm and collected, Gaethje’s strong jab and consistent pace outdoes the best of fighters, but often a brawl ensues, where his violent left hook and unusually accurate rear uppercut finds a home.
With 60.2% significant strike accuracy (1st all-time among LW) and 11 total fight night bonuses (tied 5th all-time among LW), Gaethje is sure to produce fireworks again.
Verdict: Dustin Poirier Win 62/100
This five-round matchup for the BMF belt is a fire fight in the making. While re-matches hardly ever have emotional value attached, these two don’t know how maintain a conservative fight approach.
At some point this will turn ugly, and whoever weathers the storm will find success. Last time, Poirier found himself victorious, and I believe he will do so again.
Co-main Event
Jan Blachowicz 81/100 | Alex Pereira 9/10
(Flyweight Championship)
In the lead up to the main event, MMA fans can appreciate a move up in weight from former middleweight championship contender Alex Pereira against the legendary Polish power of former division champion Jan Blachowicz.
Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1) is a specimen of power that is measured in an approach. Now, at the ripe old age of 40, the former champion has hopes of becoming a two-time division king with a win over a former foe’s foe.
After winning the vacant light heavyweight belt in 2020, a victorious title defense against Israel Adesanya was short lived after losing the belt seven months later and failing to regain it in a draw against Magomed Ankalaev.
Jan Blachowicz welcomes Alex Pereira to the light heavyweight division 🤝 #UFC291 pic.twitter.com/AHfly7zbf7
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) July 28, 2023
After doing exactly what he said he would do, knockout Israel Adesanya, Alex Pereira (7-2) failed to retain the middleweight title and now sets his sites on becoming a two-division champion. Only eight fighters have achieved such a feat before, and the big 36-year-old Brazilian could etch his name in history once more.
Verdict: Jan Blachowicz Win 81/100
The former light heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz is a smart with his from the outside, and often finds clean hooks off the break from the clinch.
But most importantly I’m this math chip, Błachowicz is a strong grappler, with an eye for submissions while also maintaining heavy top control – his path to victory over Adesanya. If Alex Pereira has not sharpened up his ground game, this will be a rather quick night.
Top Treble for UFC 291:
Blachowicz Win 81/100
Holland Win 63/100
Lewis Win 17/10
Treble to win at 6/1
Full card predictions
Main Card: 04:00 CAT, Sunday 30 July
- Lightweight Dustin Poirier (23/100) vs Justin Gaethje (23/20): Poirier
- Light Heavyweight (C) Jan Blachowicz (81/100) vs Alex Pereira (89/100): Blachowicz
- Welterweight Stephen Thompson (62/100) vs Michel Pereira (23/20): Thompson
- Lightweight Tony Ferguson (11/4) vs Bobby Green (23/100): Ferguson
- Welterweight Michael Chiesa (11/10) vs Kevin Holland (63/100): Holland
Prelims: 02:00 CAT, Sunday 30 July
- Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim (2/7) vs Trevin Giles (23/10): Bonfim
- Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (17/10) vs Marcos Rogelio de Lima (41/100): Lewis
- Middleweight Roman Kopylov (44/100) vs Claudio Ribeiro (16/10): Kopylov
- Welterweight Jake Matthews (36/100) vs Darrius Flowers (19/10): Matthew
Early Prelims: 00:30 CAT, Sunday 30 July
- Flyweight CJ Vergara (61/100) vs Vinicius Salvador (23/20): Vergara
- Welterweight Matthew Semelsberger (43/100) vs Uroa Medic (16/10): Semelsberger
- (W) Flyweight Maverick Miranda (31/100) vs Priscila Chachoeira (43/20): Miranda
