PREVIEW: UFC 301

Main Event

Alexandre Pantoja 46/100 | Steve Erceg 31/20 (Flyweight Championship)

UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is set to defend his title against the formidable challenger Steve Erceg. While Pantoja holds the favour of odds-makers, Erceg’s potential makes him an enticing bet.

Hailing from Brazil, Alexandre Pantoja boasts an impressive MMA career record of 27 wins and 5 losses. Currently riding a five-fight winning streak, Pantoja enters the octagon for his third title defence following a hard-fought split decision victory against Brandon Moreno at UFC 290, and a commanding unanimous decision win over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 last December.

Pantoja’s fighting style is versatile, with ten of his victories secured via submission, eight by knockout, and nine by decision, showcasing his prowess across different fighting styles. Notably, all five of his defeats have come by way of decision, illustrating his resilience and ability to avoid being finished.

On the opposing side, Steve Erceg, a 28-year-old Australian, boasts an impressive record of 12 wins and 1 loss in his MMA career. Despite being relatively new to the UFC, with this title fight marking only his fourth appearance in the promotion, Erceg’s swift rise to contention speaks volumes about his potential.

While it might come as a surprise for him to be vying for a belt so early in his UFC tenure, it underscores the promotion’s confidence in his abilities and his potential to become a marquee attraction. Erceg’s fight history demonstrates his versatility as a fighter, with six of his wins secured by submission, four by decision, and two by knockout. His lone defeat came via decision, highlighting his resilience even in defeat.

Verdict: Pantoja by submission win 13/5

The reigning champion is renowned for his clean striking, yet his true prowess lies in his exceptional grappling skills and remarkable cardio endurance. Employing a strategic approach, he typically utilises his striking to wear down adversaries before swiftly transitioning to his dominant ground game.

Once on the canvas, Pantoja emerges as a formidable force, showcasing his proficiency in submissions and control—a strategy he is expected to employ against Erceg with near certainty.

By contrast, Steve Erceg shares Pantoja’s proficiency in grappling techniques. While he demonstrates a willingness to engage in takedowns, there remains a lingering question regarding his proficiency on the mat compared to his Brazilian counterpart.

Top Treble for UFC 301:

Pantoja Win 46/100
Gomis Win 94/100
Kareckaite Win 17/10

Treble to win at 6/1

Full card predictions

Main Card: 04:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May

• Flyweight Championship Alexandre Pantoja (46/100) vs Steve Erceg (31/20): Pantoja
• Bantamweight: Jonathan Martinez (66/100) vs José Aldo (11/10): Martinez
• Light Heavyweight: Anthony Smith (17/5) vs Vitor Petrino (17/100): Petrino
• Middleweight: Michel Pereira (14/100) vs Ihor Potieria (39/10): Pereira
• Middleweight: Paul Craig (35/10) vs Caio Borralho (17/100): Borralho

Prelims: 02:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May

• Featherweight: Jack Shore (13/10) vs Joanderson Brito (11/20): Brito
• Strawweight (W): Karolina Kowalkiewicz (27/10) vs Iasmin Lucindo (24/100): Lucindo
• Lightweight: Elves Brener (19/10) vs Myktybek Orolbai (36/100): Orolbai
• Featherweight: Jean Silva (77/100) vs William Gomis (94/100): Gomis

Early Prelims: 00:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May

• Lightweight: Joaquim Silva (14/10) vs Drakkar Klose (51/100): Klose
• Lightweight: Mauricio Ruffy (48/100) vs Jamie Mullarkey (3/2): Ruffy
• Women’s Flyweight: Dione Barbosa (4/10) vs Ernesta Kareckaite (17/10): Kareckaite
• Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim (18/100) vs Vinc Pichel (16/5): Bonfim
• Flyweight: Alessandro Costa (69/100) vs Kevin Borjas (21/20): Borjas