Josh Gaillard previews what promises to be a thrilling UFC 302 card, set to take place at the Prudential Centre in New Jersey.
Main Event
Islam Makhachev 3/20 | Dustin Poirier 37/10 (Lightweight Championship)
As the highly anticipated showdown between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier approaches, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both fighters.
Makhachev, riding an impressive 13-fight winning streak, continues to refine his dominant grappling and striking skills. Meanwhile, the seasoned Poirier, possibly facing his last bout, brings his technical prowess and resilience into the octagon, hoping to defy the odds one last time as the stars align.
It’s no secret that the 32-year-old Makhachev is a big favourite here, and it’s not hard to see why. Riding a 13-fight winning streak, Makhachev continues to improve with every bout. His biggest advantage lies on the mat, where he dominates as a wrestler, seamlessly chaining his takedown attempts and maintaining strong top control.
Makhachev doesn’t just lay and pray; he actively seeks out ground-and-pound opportunities and frequently looks for submissions with his exceptional grappling skills. These talents alone would have taken him far, but he has also honed his striking over the years. His precision and timing with punches and kicks against top-tier opponents like Volkanovski and Charles Oliveira have been nothing short of impressive.
At 35, Poirier has hinted that win or lose, this fight could be his last, a decision understandable given his long tenure at the top of the UFC and his financial security thanks to his late-career star status.
However, talk of retirement seldom boosts confidence, especially in a bout of this magnitude. Yet, Poirier remains the consummate professional, always well-prepared and ready to push himself to the limit. On the feet, he’s a technically adept, volume-based striker with notable power and footwork, sharp shot selection, and a keen eye for countering opportunities.
While he’s no slouch on the mat, capable of scrambling and boasting several submission finishes, he tends to go for guillotine chokes that often don’t pay off. His takedown defense isn’t the strongest, and skilled grapplers have exposed weaknesses in his submission defence.
Verdict: Islam Makhachev win 3/20
Leveraging his defensive striking skills and elusive footwork, Poirier showcased resilience in his last bout against BSD, proving it’s unwise to count him out when the odds are against him.
However, this fight also underscored that he’s past his prime. Even at his peak, this matchup presents a significant challenge as Makhachev excels both on the feet and on the mat.
Poirier struggled to fend off Khabib Nurmagomedov’s submission attempts in his first title challenge five years ago, and while Makhachev employs a slightly different approach, a similar outcome seems likely. Expect Makhachev to outwrestle Poirier and secure a rear-naked choke finish in the third round.
Top Treble for UFC 301:
Costa Win 37/20
Fighter Brown 11/20
Rowe Win 12/10
Treble to win at 8/1
Full card predictions
Main Card: 04:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May
- Lightweight Championship Islam Makhachev (3/20) vs Dustin Poirier (37/10): Makhachev
- Middleweight Sean Strickland (7/20) vs Paulo Costa (37/20): Costa
- Middleweight Kevin Holland (1/3) vs Michał Oleksiejczuk (21/10): Holland
- Welterweight Niko Price (19/10) vs Alex Morono (7/20): Morono
- Welterweight Randy Brown (11/20) vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (27/20): Brown
Prelims: 02:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May
- Middleweight César Almeida (3/4) vs Roman Kopylov (19/20): Kopylov
- Heavyweight Jailton Almeida (1/3) vs Alexander Romanov (22/10): Almeida
- Lightweight Grant Dawson (2/11) vs Joe Solecki (34/10): Dawson
Welterweight Philip Rowe (12/10) vs Jake Matthews (6/10): Rowe
Early Prelims: 00:00 CAT, Sunday 5 May
- Welterweight Mickey Gall (27/10) vs Bassil Hafez (1/4): Hafez
- Bantamweight (W) Ailín Pérez (5/10) vs Joselyne Edwards (29/20): Pérez
- Flyweight Mitch Raposo (39/20) vs André Lima (7/20): Lima
