Written by Maverick White for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
England vs Sri Lanka | Thursday 27 March | Chittagong | 15:30
The World T20 returns from its midweek break with a crucial Group 1 encounter. England’s current T20 form is worse than any other Test playing nation with the exception of Bangladesh, while in contrast, Sri Lanka look deadly and must certainly be considered strong contenders for the trophy. The permutations of this fixture reach far further than the immediate concerns of these two countries; New Zealand and South Africa will both be taking notice of this result. A win for Sri Lanka all but sees them through to the semi-finals due to the run-rate boost acquired from their record-breaking victory over the Netherlands. An upset in favour of the English will see them level with the Proteas and Black Caps, a loss finds them eliminated unless the Netherlands make T20 World Cup history. If Sri Lanka lose, they will be forced to beat New Zealand to qualify, while much is likely to depend on the result between old rivals South Africa and England. The World T20 is a cruel tournament, one loss could spell the end of a campaign.
To Win
England 29/20
Tie 35/1
Sri Lanka 11/20
England
Having lost seventeen of the past 21 matches across all formats, expectations are low when it comes to the English side. They hit rock bottom on the aptly named Ashes tour, but no phoenix has risen. In fact, having three of their most promising players from the group of youngsters to emerge from their horrendous trip to Australia sidelined is making the task all the more difficult. Luke Wright has been ruled out with a side strain and Kieswetter was drafted into the side to replace him. However, Moeen Ali batted at three in England’s excruciating loss to the Black Caps and top scored with 36. He looks to be developing competency at international level and for once, a hunch among the England selectors seems to have paid off. Joe Root will play no part after fracturing his thumb against the West Indies prior to the tournament, while Ben Stokes has also been ruled out; he broke a bone in his wrist punching a locker on the same tour.
England’s defeat to New Zealand was the type that comes about when a side is down on their luck. After scoring 172/6 in their twenty overs, which was the highest total at Chittagong, the Black Caps had a tough chase on their hands. A storm appeared from the ether, bringing with it thunder, lightning and the dreaded Duckworth/Lewis. Five overs is considered enough of an innings to constitute a match, New Zealand made it two balls past this mark before the rain came down. However, with lightning streaking the sky in the previous over, the umpires could and possibly should have dragged the players off before the completion of the fifth over, a point Stuart Broad made unashamedly post-match. The England captain was fined 15% of his match fee for those critical comments and one can only shake their head at the logic of the ICC. Although, had the roles been reversed, I have no doubt Broad would’ve been perfectly happy to play through a hurricane.
Sri Lanka
The number one T20 side in the world have won two from two and don’t look to be slowing down. Although they will undergo a restructure at the conclusion of the tournament, at present they have a side packed with match-winning talent. Their victory over the Proteas underlined the importance of Lasith Malinga in the T20 game. When a side, realistically, can only expect to take 25 runs from four of their overs, a chase becomes all the more difficult. Indeed, Sri Lanka have only lost twice when defending a total of 160-plus. Apart from Malinga, Senanayake is also tough to get away, while Kulasekara manages to find swing with the new ball. Opening batsman Kusal Perera is in good form, his uncanny resemblance in style to Jayasuriya a boost for a Sri Lankan team on the brink of losing Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara from the T20 setup. The senior players, including Dilshan, failed to fire against South Africa and England will be wary that Sri Lanka have yet to reach their full potential with the bat in this tournament. They dismissed the Netherlands for a record low 39 in their second match, knocking off the runs required in five overs. While they will gladly take the points and the perky net run rate, they will be disappointed to not have batted first and had more time at the crease.
Venue
The wicket in Chittagong seems to be becoming slightly more benign, the fast bowlers finding less and less assistance from the pitch. The side batting first will be aiming for 170 on this wicket, anything around this mark has proved defendable. As the tournament wears on there should be more in the wicket for the spinners, so expect to see Senanayake and Mendis making an impact here.
VERDICT: Sri Lanka 11/20
The Sri Lankan juggernaut rolls on. I don’t expect England to have enough quality to compete with the Sri Lankan side, their sights set on glory in Bangladesh. The spinners should come to the fore here and although Tahir was able to trouble the Sri Lankans, England don’t possess anyone with that type of variation. Back the subcontinent side to lay down a very ominous marker.
