The 2019 Super Rugby season is just around the corner, which is music to rugby fans and punters ears. Darry Worthington thinks he’s found some decent value bets for you to get on.
The Super Rugby season is just a fortnight away and punters around the globe will be looking to get their final pre-tournament outright bets on over the coming days. Our scribe runs the rule over where he thinks the smart money should go.
To Win Tournament Outright
- Crusaders 11/4
- Hurricanes 4/1
- Chiefs 6/1
- Highlanders 8/1
- Lions 9/1
- Waratahs 25/2
- Brumbies 25/1
- Blues 30/1
- Jaguares 33/1
- Sharks 35/1
- Stormers 50/1
- Bulls 50/1
- Rebels 50/1
- Reds 100/1
- Sunwolves 500/1
To Win New Zealand Conference Outright
- Crusaders 11/10
- Hurricanes 22/10
- Chiefs 6/1
- Highlanders 7/1
- Blues 20/1
To Win Australian Conference Outright
- Waratahs 17/10
- Brumbies 2/1
- Rebels 11/4
- Reds 17/2
- Sunwolves 33/1
To Win South African Conference Outright
- Lions 5/10
- Stormers 13/2
- Bulls 7/1
- Jaguares 9/1
- Sharks 12/1
Outright Winner Contenders
Crusaders
The defending champions come into this one as red-hot favourites with the bookmakers to make it three Super Rugby titles on the trot. The men from New Zealand’s South Island were in a class of their own last year only losing two games on their way to claiming the title.
2018 may well prove a tougher prospect for the Scott Robertson’s all-conquering side as they will have to deal with the absence of their All Blacks stars for huge swathes of the season due to mandated rest periods. They do have the depth to counteract this, however, with a number of young guns stepping up to the plate during the 2018 Mitre 10 Cup.
Hurricanes
The Hurricanes will be slightly disappointed with their 2018 showing which saw them lose five of their Conference phase fixtures and bow out of the tournament at the semi-final stage.
There is no doubting that the men from Wellington have the talent to wrestle the title back from their domestic rivals, the Crusaders, but they need to put in a better effort defensively, as well as at the set-piece, this year if they are to reclaim the title they won back in 2016.
The appointment of John Plumtree as head coach will go a long way to rectifying the Hurricanes defensive frailties, while the return of All Black hooker Dane Coles will improve their lineout which was shaky at times in 2018.
Lions
South Africa’s shining Super Rugby team will be hard tasked to advance to their fourth successive final this year as they have lost a host of players to the lure of the Pound.
With the likes of Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Franco Mostert and Ruan Dreyer having all moved to new pastures, the Lions will need their young guns to step up to the plate this year. And while they have some young backs who are capable of making it at Super Rugby level, they don’t have the same potential amongst their young forwards.
Waratahs
The Australian side were solid entertainment value last year racking up a staggering 557 points during the Conference phase, which was the most by any team in the tournament. Their downfall, however, was their inability to defend.
It’s unlikely that the Waratahs will improve their defensive game that much this season as they just don’t have the personnel to do so. As such, their only hope of winning the title will be to outscore their opponents, which may be harder for them to do this season as they have lost try-scoring machine Taqele Naiyaravoro, who is now plying his trade in Europe.
Dark Horse
Jaguares
The Argentines have made steady progress since they joined the tournament back in 2016, with their best finish seeing them make the quarter-final stage last season.
2019 is likely to be a lot harder for the men from Argentina who have lost inspirational head coach Mario Ledesma to the national side. They will also be without their Argentine internationals for periods of the season due to rest periods.
The Jaguares still do have a major advantage over the rest of the teams in the tournament as their opponents have to cover huge air miles to reach Argentina. The travel factor, as well as the hostile support in Argentina, makes taking the Jaguares on at home an absolute nightmare.
Verdict: Crusaders 3/1
They may be without their All Blacks at stages this season but the reigning ‘champs have a very deep squad that is capable of coping with the absence of their big guns. They offer decent value at the moment as they are trading at 3/1.
Conference Winners
Australia
The Australian Conference looks the most clear cut of them all with the Waratahs possessing a squad that is on another level to the rest of the sides in the conference. They may actually have a surprise challenger for top spot in the conference this year with the Sunwolves looking good on paper.
The Rebels are also capable of giving the ‘Tahs a run, and if Quade Cooper, who signed for the franchise during the offseason, can recapture some form then the Melbourne side may well be able to push the ‘Tahs close.
Verdict: Waratahs 17/10
The men from New South Wales don’t offer the greatest value at 17/10 to top the Australian Conference, but is there another side in the conference that can challenge them? I don’t really think so.
New Zealand
This could be a rather interesting conference with all the sides in it carrying handy squads. The Crusaders are rightly favourites to take the honours as they look the most well rounded of the sides.
Like the Sunwolves in Australian Conference, I think we could see a surprise challenge from New Zealand minnows the Blues. They head into the tournament with the majority of their squad having tasted success in the Mitre 10 Cup, with their Premiership title run likely to give the plying squad a massive confidence boost. The Aucklanders have also bolstered their front row and backline with some shrewd offseason acquisitions.
You also cannot discount the Hurricanes chances as they have the most mercurial rugby player in the world on their books in the form of Beauden Barrett.
In my opinion, the Chiefs and Highlanders will battle it out for last place in the conference this year. Their squads look a little too shallow for my liking.
Verdict: Crusaders 11/10
Scott Robertson’s side are very short at 11/10 to top the conference and I wouldn’t recommend having a strike on them this early as their price could drift with an early season loss – something they have often experienced as they have generally been slow starters. You’ll possibly be able to catch them at around the 18/10 mark if they do suffer an early season loss, and that’s when I recommend getting your money on.
South Africa
Undoubtedly, the most open of all the conferences, the South African Conference should offer a thrill a minute this season with the Lions likely to drop off the boil due to a number of their stalwarts moving overseas.
It’s not only the exodus up in Johannesburg that has made the conference a much tougher one to call. The Bulls look a whole lot better on paper this year due to the Pretoria-based franchise signing Springboks Duane Vermeulen and Schalk Britz.
The Stormers also look a solid side on paper, although, with all the turmoil floating around Western Province rugby at the moment one can’t help but feel it will have it’s toll on the players, especially during the opening few rounds of the season.
On the other side of the South African coastline lies a very talented bunch of blokes in the form of the Sharks. The Natalians were unceremoniously dumped out of the tournament by the Crusaders last year but looked decent at times during the round-robin phase.
Finally, we have the Jaguares who proved to be a real handful last year. The Argentine side will yet again be a formidable force, particularly at home where they claimed some big scalps in 2018. They are also a seasoned side who have played a hell of a lot of rugby together.
Verdict: Jaguares 9/1
There’s just too much value here to overlook. Yes, they will be without their internationals for a few weeks but this Jaguares side has built up a bit more depth of the last two seasons. If they can maintain their solid home form then they may well end up topping the South African.
Written by Darry Worthington for Hollywoodbets
