Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
ISPS Handa Wales Open | Thursday 18 September – Sunday 21 September | Celtic Manor Resort
Golf fans will find it difficult to think about anything but the Ryder Cup and no-one can be blamed. It’s looking like next week could be one for the history books. Most golf fans aren’t punters though, so whilst keeping one eye on Gleneagles, the focus for now is on Celtic Manor. This was the scene of Europe’s last home Ryder Cup victory in 2010 and will be a great warm up for the likes of Westwood, Bjorn and Gallacher, all of whom will be competing next week. The course itself is a par 71 links layout and measures in at 7,352 yards. Like most links courses, a premium will be placed on accuracy as the fairways are lined with thick rough ready to swallow any skew tee shots. Wayward approach shots will be treated just as harshly, so be sure to keep an eye on players who can hit it straight. As usual, GIR% will be a key stat but in a field that consists of some great short iron players, the ability to make birdies will reign. With that in mind, putting on these quick greens will probably be the difference between finishing in the Top 5 and lifting the trophy. There is no rain predicted for the tournament but the wind is expected to blow.
To Win Outright
Joost Luiten 12/1
Jamie Donaldson 14/1
Lee Westwood 16/1
Paul Casey 16/1
Simon Dyson 20/1
VALUE BETS
Johan Carlsson (160/1 a win, 35/1 a place)
It’s time to take advantage of one of the newer markets that Hollywood have introduced and back the talented but inconsistent Johan Carlsson at 14/1 for a Top 10 finish this week in Wales. He’s had a relatively quiet year and until last week really hadn’t done much to warrant having a bet, but a final round 63 on Sunday catapulted him to a T5 finish in the KLM Open and into my value bets for this week. A lot has been made of the fact that this seems to be his favourite time of year to play as he won this week last year on the Challenge Tour and also won the Nordea Masters at the same time the year before. At 160/1 you can’t get hurt having a strike on Carlsson but don’t forget to include the Top 10 bet.
Peter Uihlein (45/1 a win, 4/1 a place)
A few months ago, Peter Uihlein’s name was on everyone’s lips after a string of impressive finishes had most enthusiasts wondering if he could be golf’s next big thing. Fast forward nine months or so and it looks like the hype may have been slightly unjustified as Uihlein has gone off the boil and faded into relative obscurity. I’m hoping that he changes that this week when he returns to Celtic Manor, a course that seemed to suit his game last year when he managed an impressive second place finish. 45/1 is about the right price for the talented American, here’s hoping he manages to turn some of that poor form around this week.
Edoardo Molinari (35/1 a win, 77/10 a place)
Edoardo Molinari looks like he may have a real chance this week as he arrives to play on a links course that should suit his game to a tee. So far in his career he has been at his best on links layouts and the reason for that has to be his devastating accuracy with his irons. He’s won twice on the tour and on both occasions those victories came on links layouts. He also seems to enjoy this course and has a best finish here of T4 which he managed in 2010. If he comes out this week and plays his irons as well as we have seen in the past there is no reason he won’t finish inside the Top 5 this week at least. Each way looks the way to go on Molinari.
TOP BET: Danny Willett (28/1 a win, 62/10 a place)
Danny Willett is another player who excels on links courses and at 28/1 looks a great bet this week. He hits the ball as well as anyone off the tee and rarely misses fairways and his accuracy with his irons and ability to shape his approaches ensure that his GIR stats are right up there. He’s been playing some decent golf of late but has been struggling to string together four rounds, a fact that can be blamed mainly on his ability to retain control of his putter for extended periods of time. However if he manages to play his irons as well as he has done in the past he should be competing come Sunday. Each way on Willet is my best bet for the week, get on.
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