Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Scottish Open | Thursday 10 July – Sunday 13 July | Royal Aberdeen
The European Tour heads to Scotland this week for what promises to be a tightly contested affair, as a number of big names have chosen to head to Royal Aberdeen Golf Club to participate in the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open. The course is one of the oldest in the world and runs along the North Sea, so wind is always going to be a factor players have to contend with on this links layout. On the front nine every hole runs parallel to the coastline and although the first nine holes are protected by rolling sand dunes, scoring here will still be difficult. The real test however comes on the back nine. Here the course moves out of the dunes and onto exposed higher ground. When the wind is up, which it is sure to be for most of the tournament, scoring is incredibly tough and pars will not be easy to come by.
Nowhere is this more true than on the tight 18th which is known to be one of the least forgiving holes in golf. A tight fairway is lined with bunkers, so accuracy off the tee and nerves of steel are important, however, even once on the fairway, players are faced with the difficult task of avoiding the numerous bunkers surrounding the tight 18th green. Overall, the ability to play in the wind and course management will be key, as will a knowledge of the layout and prevailing weather conditions. So who has it in them to dominate on this difficult links course?
To Win Outright
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Jamie Donaldson 22/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
Luke Donald 25/1
VALUE BETS
Luke Donald (25/1 a win, 11/2 a place)
Luke Donald has had an up-and-down season but when he’s been good, he’s looked to be almost back to his best. I’m hoping that this week he comes out firing. At one stage of the season he was playing some of the worst golf seen from him in a long time but he overcame that and managed a run of five Top 25 places in six events, which is no easy task in what has been a tightly contested year. He also arrives at the Scottish Open having won the event three years ago and whilst this installment is being hosted on a different course, he has been known to play some great golf on links courses. 25/1 looks about right, here’s hoping he shows some of the form witnessed during the RBC Heritage.
Thomas Bjorn (40/1 a win, 87/10 a place)
Thomas Bjorn is another player who hasn’t been at his best this year and nowhere was that more evident than in France last week. He missed the cut there, which does little to inspire any confidence in his game at the moment, but prior to that he had a serious run of form which included two Top 10s and a T15 at the Nordea Masters. The best of those finishes was an impressive T3 at Wentworth against stiff competition and if he can replicate some of that form, 88/10 a place looks a great bet. It’s always tough to write the great Dane off entirely so a small each way bet looks good to me here.
Robert Karlsson (40/1 a win, 87/10 a place)
Another player who looks a lot of value at 40/1 this week is Robert Karlsson. He’s played some great golf this year and has come close to victory on a few occasions, most notably in the Nordea Masters where some great ball striking saw him manage a respectable T6. Last week he was even more impressive when he finished fourth in France so he’ll come here brimming with confidence, especially considering that he knows how to play links courses as well as anyone. Each way looks the bet on Karlsson, get on.
TOP BET: Justin Rose (14/1 a win, 31/10 a place)
Justin Rose will be coming here with one eye on the Open Championship and he’ll know that a good tournament in these trying conditions will set him up perfectly for that Major. He’s got arguably the best form of anyone in this field and a win a few weeks ago at the Quicken Loans National was the culmination of some great golf, which had seen him finish inside the Top 10 in four of six starts. A serious contender in any tournament, he’s a well-known links player and has the ability to manage tough layouts like this one, which is incredibly rare. 14/1 may seem a bit skinny but in my opinion he far outranks McIlroy and deserves to be favourite. Get on while you can, this price won’t be around for much longer.
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