Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The John Deere Classic | Thursday 10 July – Sunday 13 July | TPC Deere Run
The John Deere Classic tees off this week at the aptly named TPC Deere Run and compared to the past few events on the Tour, the field looks weak this time around. Despite that, there are still a number of big names participating and the event should still prove to be an entertaining one. The course measures in at 7,100 yards and is a par 71, built on the site of what was previously a horse farm. The result is a scenic course which features a number of small ponds, with the fairways lined with picturesque oak trees and set amidst rolling hills. Typically, this one has been a birdie fest and some really low scores have been posted. As a result, accurate iron play and solid putting are the name of the game, as to win players will need to make birdies. In no year was this more evident than 2010, when the winner Steve Stricker shot an impressive -26 to claim victory.
Accuracy off the tee is for once not really a factor as wayward drives are not punished as severely as in other tournaments, so keep a close eye on the big hitters who can take advantage of those booming drives and make eagles. This year, champion Jordan Spieth will aim to defend his title and with the form he is in at the moment finds himself as the favourite. Will he be able to claim victory once again or are his days numbered? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Steve Stricker 11/1
Zach Johnson 12/1
Harris English 20/1
Ryan Moore 20/1
VALUE BETS
Kyle Stanley (140/1 a win, 30/1 a place)
It’s not often that a player above the 100/1 mark catches my eye but after reading about how Kyle Stanley was narrowly edged out by Steve Stricker in 2011, the 140/1 available on Stanley looks a decent bet this week. So far this season he hasn’t done all that much to warrant backing him but a glimmer of hope came last week where he managed to finish inside the Top 40. That finish could have been a lot better had he not shot 71 twice, along with his 66 and 68, but nevertheless he played some great golf and against this field, on a course he seems to enjoy, he could be one to watch. If he can translate some of those straight drives and accurate approaches into birdies this week then there’s no reason he won’t find himself in the Top 10 at least. Each way on Stanley looks like a good bet to me this week, get on.
Harris English (20/1 a win, 44/10 a place)
The fact that Harris English is fourth favourite this week says a lot about the quality of the field here but it’s in tournaments like this that we often see the young guns step up to the plate. Let’s hope the 24-year-old does just that this week. A talented young golfer who’s slowly starting to make a name for himself on the Tour, English did well here on his first outing when he managed a 15th place finish. Since then his game has improved immensely and although his putting lets him down on occasion, he ranks eighth on Tour in GIR% so should make a lot of birdies. If that is the case, there’s no reason he won’t be competing come Sunday. Each way on English is the bet for me here.
Bill Hurley (50/1 a win, 11/1 a place)
Bill Hurley has yet to taste victory on the Tour and to be honest, I don’t think that this will be his week as there are a number of players here who, quite simply, are more consistent than he is. Nowhere was this more apparent than at the Honda Classic, where he managed to shoot three low rounds and frustratingly let himself down with a single poor one. Whilst his form since then has been good this trend has continued and although he has managed two Top 10s in his last two starts, he’s never really looked like winning. However, one bad round doesn’t mean that he will not finish inside the Top 5 and at 11/1 a place this week, I feel Hurley represents a lot of value. An accurate driver of the ball who hits his irons well, he may not have the game to win but he certainly has a good chance of finishing in the places.
TOP BET: Zach Johnson (12/1 a win, 26/10 a place)
If there is anyone who wants to win this one, it is Zach Johnson. This is a tournament that he holds close to his heart and he currently sits on the board of directors so knows the workings of the event inside and out. The fact that he is so comfortable here has shown in his past results too. In the past five years he’s been in the Top 5 four times and in 2012 he won, after coming agonizingly close in 2009 and 2011. That performance was nearly repeated last year when he finished in second place and if tournament form is any indication of how he will do this year, then 12/1 looks a great bet. With that in mind, Johnson just looks too good to ignore. Each way is the bet for me.
