We preview the AT&T Pebble Beach National set to take place at the Pebble Beach Golf Course from 8 February – 11 February.
The US PGA Tour season really swings into gear with perhaps the most famous pro-am in America. This could make for tedious viewing over the course of the first three days, as the coverage is likely to focus on businessmen and celebrities hacking their way around the three courses.
Sunday at Pebble Beach will provide the best action as an excellent field lines up for one of the most iconic challenges in American golf. Originally named the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur and staged in 1937, this will be the 77th edition of an event that has been sponsored by AT&T since 1986.
The AT&T Pebble Beach National | 87 February – 11 February | Pebble Beach, California
The wind will clearly always be the key factor on these exposed courses, with Saturday expected to be the most blustery. Spyglass is generally considered the toughest test, with a tree-lined layout as opposed to the generous fairways of Monterey and Pebble Beach. Monterey is generally considered the easiest course. The three courses will be alternated over the first three days before Pebble Beach will provide the stunning vistas for the final round. All the greens are poa annua, which is the same as Torrey Pines.
World Number One Dustin Johnson tees it up this week with the likes of Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth breathing down his neck. Rory McIlroy had two close calls in the Middle East while Jason Day just recently returned to the winner’s circle. Gary Woodland was exceptional last week while the likes of Brandt Snedeker and Jimmy Walker have tasted success here before. Generally the shortest course on the PGA Tour, this could also open the event up for a surprise winner- see Vaughan Taylor.
Past Winners
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016: Vaughan Taylor (-17)
2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014: Jimmy Walker (-11)
2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19)
To Win Outright
Dustin Johnson 11/2 | Jon Rahm 9/1 | Rory McIlroy 10/1 | Jason Day 10/1 | Jordan Spieth 12/1
Value Bets
Brandt Snedeker- To Win 35/1, To Place 15/2
I really cannot believe that Snedeker is priced in the 30’s this week. A two-time champion here- in 2013 and 2015- Snedeker also had a highly creditable fourth place finish last year. On his day he is one of the best putters in the world, his ability on the poa annua surface is really what separates him on these relatively tiny greens. He seemed to have turned the corner with a workmanlike 23rd place finish at the Phoenix Open, which should set him up well for one of his best events.
Chesson Headley- To Win 55/1, To Place 12/1
Headley had a remarkable start to the season proper, with finishes of T3, 2nd and T4th at the Safeway Open, Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriner’s event respectively. He had some injury concerns but picked up a top 30 finish at the CareerBuilder. He was brilliant in Phoenix, ultimately finishing in a tie for fifth. Furthermore, he had back-to-back top 10 finishes here in his initial PGA Tour run. That sweet concoction of course form and personal form makes him very appealing at 55/1.
Jason Kokrak- To Win 80/1, To Place 17/1
The Canadian-born Kokrak is perhaps one of the best players yet to win on the entire tour, and he has an inexplicably great record in California. He had a ninth place finish in 2012 on the back of three missed cuts. It would take him till the Frys.com in California that same year for his next top 10 finish- a brilliant runner-up finish. Last season he managed to climb to 23rd following an opening round 77. He is coming off yet another top 10 California finish in the CareerBuilder Challenge and could be a decent outside bet at 80/1.
The Man to Beat- Jason Day- To Win 10/1, To Place 22/10
While I would prefer Day to be sitting in the teens this week, you can’t ignore the man who just won at Torrey Pines. He finished fourth here in 2015 after claiming the Farmers Insurance Open. So there is definitely a corollary with Torrey Pines. And while he has missed the cut in the last two editions at Torrey Pines, he has managed finishes of 11th and fifth here in the last two editions. He seems to have recaptured his swing following a year of fitness issues and the cancer diagnosis of his mother.
