Damien Kayat preview this week’s Honda Classic which takes place at Palm Beach Gardens in Florida.
Honda Classic | 28 Feb – 3 Mar | PGA National Champion Course, Palm Beach Gardens
Last week’s WGC event in Mexico marked the limbo period between the West Coast Swing and this trip east. The Florida Swing begins this week with the Honda Classic. The switch from Poa Annua to Bermuda should suit some of the resident Floridians. Originally known as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic, this event dates back to the 40’s. Honda became affiliated with the event back in 1982 and PGA National has played host to the event for the last 12 years. The original dominance of Americans in this event has been challenged in recent years, with international players claiming seven of the last titles.
The Champion Course at PGA National is not a challenge to be sneezed at. Not overly long, this exposed course is susceptible to those sudden gusts of wind activity that pervade the Florida coastline. This year’s weather predictions seem fairly benign, meaning that we may just see a double-digit winning score for only the fourth time at PGA National. The Tom and George Fazio design was heavily reworked by Jack Nicklaus in 1990. It is heavily bunkered and has favoured the bigger hitters over the last few years. The holes 15 through 17 are infamously known as the ‘Bear Trap’ for their fiendish difficulty. The 17th was ranked the most difficult par 3 on the PGA Tour last season.
Defending Champion Justin Thomas has flirted with victory over the past few weeks and will feel extremely confident as the market favourite. Ricky Fowler will be looking to emulate his success at TPC Scottsdale here while Brooks Koepka aims to really get his season underway. Sergio Garcia has been a model of consistency while the Aussie pair of Adam Scott and Cameron Smith have threatened the winner’s circle this season.
Past Winners
2018: Justin Thomas (-8)*playoff
2017: Ricky Fowler (-12)
2016: Adam Scott (-9)
2015: Padraig Harrington (-6)*playoff
2014: Russell Henley (-8)*playoff
To Win Outright:
Justin Thomas 5/1 | Ricky Fowler 10/1 | Brooks Koepka 12/1 | Adam Scott 14/1 | Sergio Garcia 16/1
Value Bets
Billy Horschel- To Win 35/1, To Place 15/2
As I noted earlier, it’s usually fairly wise to opt for at least one Florida native in your selections. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has been remarkably consistent at PGA National in recent years. He finished eighth last year and eighth again in 2016. Wedged in between those performances was an even better fourth place finish in 2017. Horschel is coming off a fairly tame tie for 45th in Mexico. But that was really attributable to poor second round. He has some form this season, with a top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Luke List- To Win 40/1, To Place 17/2
Luke List is a guy who just suits this golf course like a glove. Prodigious off the tee, List lost in a playoff here last season. He comes into this event in decent form, with a tie for 15th in his last event: the Genesis Open. He started the season in decent fashion, with a pair of top five’s in his first three starts. List should be able to draw some positive juju from last season. His stats also read impressive coming into this week: he sits third in shots gained from tee; he lies in 10th in shots gained tee to green; he also sits fifth in driving distance. His stats and recent course form make him an appealing bet at 40/1.
The Man to Beat- Webb Simpson- To Win 25/1, To Place 11/2
It took some time for Webb Simpson to deal with the added pressure of becoming a Major Champion. His game seemed to suffer under the weight of added expectation. But over the past few years his remarkable consistency seems to suggest that Simpson is back. He won last year’s Players in spectacular fashion: there is often a strong correlation between the Honda and Players. He finished fifth here last season and has looked brilliant on similar courses. Though slightly counterintuitive to the big-hitting angle I specified earlier, Simpson is a relatively small hitter who utilizes pinpoint iron-play. He seems to thrive in these wind-exposed, coastal courses: he finished third at the RSM Classic and fifth at the Heritage.
