It is still taking me some time to get used to this new Major schedule. Brooks Koepka will look to match the exploits of one Willie Anderson by capturing his 3rd consecutive US Open title.
That is quite the feat when you consider the brutish reputation acquired by the United States Golf Association for their fiendishly difficult set-ups. This will be the 119th edition of America’s national open and returns to one of golf’s most iconic venues: Pebble Beach.
2019 US PGA Tour | US Open
Pebble Beach Golf Links, California, United States
Thursday 13 June – Sunday 16 June 2019
This will be the 6th US Open hosted by this idyllic Californian course. Many of the most cherished US Open memories have been made on this hallowed turf. Tom Watson’s ‘shot heard around the world’ in 1982 saw him overcome great rival Jack Nicklaus by two strokes. And who could forget the most perfect distillation of Tiger Woods’ dominance of the sport? He romped home to a 15 stroke victory in the centenary edition of the Open in 2000. So here’s to hoping for another battle that reverberates throughout the annals of history.
This course plays host to two rounds of the tour’s annual Pro-Am and is thus quite familiar to most players. However, the conditions in February are much softer and the course is also set up comparatively shorter. So it’s hard to draw direct parallels between the events. Phil Mickelson won this year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is still chasing the elusive US Open title that will see him complete the illustrious career Grand Slam. The six-time US Open runner-up would never admit it, but this may represent his last feasible chance of joining that elite pantheon of stars.
Pebble Beach is a coastal links-style course that was actually designed by two players without any design experience. Jack Neville and Douglas Grant were both California State Amateur Champions and set out to make a dream course that hugged the Pacific coastline. Pebble Beach is only a smidge over 7,000 yards, making it a dwarf by US Open standards. But what is lacks in size it makes up for in personality. The punitive rough is typical of US Open set-ups. But it is the minuscule greens that really set this test apart. They are actually the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour. Clearly, scrambling will be key while avoiding the rough is always crucial. The iconic par 3 7th rivals the 17th at Sawgrass for atmosphere. This is a course that will test every facet of a player’s game. But I still believe that what is done on those poa annua greens will prove decisive. Links specialists are often a factor around a course this exposed.
Brooks Koepka heads into this event attempting to win his 5th Major in nine starts. It’s an unbelievable statistic given the general competitiveness in men’s golf. Perhaps Pebble doesn’t play into his strengths as much as Erin Hills or Bethpage. It’s clearly not a bombers paradise and will favour skilful manipulation of the ball. Dustin Johnson is a two-time winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has finished runner-up in his last two Major Championships. Rory McIlroy is coming off a tearaway victory in Canada while Tiger Woods lurks ominously after a surprised missed-cut at Bethpage.
Past Winners
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2016: Dustin Johnson (-4)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-5)
2014: Martin Kaymer (-9)
Outright Betting (To Win)
Rory McIlroy (8/1)
Brooks Koepka (9/1)
Dustin Johnson (10/1)
Tiger Woods (12/1)
Jordan Spieth (22/1)
Value Bets
Shane Lowry
To Win (60/1), To Place (12/1)
The somewhat erratic Irishman has run into form at exactly the right time ahead of this US Open. Lowry finished in a tie for 2nd in Canada last week and also had a top 10 finish at Bethpage. Lowry has already won in illustrious company this year, bagging the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship earlier this year. Lowry has US Open credentials, finishing in a tie for 9th at Chamber’s Bay and a tie for 2nd at Oakmont. He is gifted with a sensational short game that was evident at Hamilton. He should thrive in what is the ultimate test of short game efficiency: he currently sits 14th in scrambling on tour and 3rd in shots gained putting.
Graeme McDowell
To Win (70/1), To Place (14/1)
What a year it has been for the Norther Irish stalwart. He has been on a barren run for some time now and seemed to be nowhere with his game. But this season has seen him rediscover some magic. He won the Corales event and picked up top 10’s in Texas and Canada. Crucially, that tie for 8th in Hamilton last week ensured his participation at this year’s Open Championship. He is a native of Portrush and was desperate to qualify for what is sure to be a sentimentally overwhelming week for McDowell. And let’s not forget that McDowell won at Pebble back in 2010! He will be free-rolling this week and looks great value in the place markets.
Branden Grace
To Win (160/1), To Place (30/1)
There always has to be one complete Nostradamus move in Major week. Branden Grace just ticks a lot of boxes outside of current form: though his runner-up in Phoenix earlier this year came on a testy Sunday set-up. Grace loves these coastal set-ups and possesses two top 5 finishes in US Open. He has that lower ball flight that can cut through the wind when it starts to wreak havoc. He was only one of three players to break 70 in both rounds at Pebble Beach during last year’s Pro-Am. Grace has five top 6 finishes in Major Championships and should relish these links conditions.
The Man to Beat
Patrick Cantlay
To Win (22/1), To Place (44/10)
Considering the fact that this week will likely test every facet of a players’ game, look no further than Patrick Cantlay. He currently sits inside the top 30 for the following categories: shots gained off tee, shots gained approach, shots gained around the green and shots gained on the green. He is extremely consistent and as a California native was weaned on poa annua greens. Cantlay recorded top 10’s at both the Masters and US PGA Championship. But it was his resounding two-shot victory at the Memorial that gives me the confidence to back the metronomic Cantlay this week.
