Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The McGladrey Classic | Thursday 23 October- Sunday 26 October | Seaside Course, Sea Island
This week the PGA Tour heads to Georgia and the picturesque Seaside Course at Sea Island, a wind battered par 70 that measures just over 7,050 yards. The course is well known for being incredibly difficult when the wind is up, which it will inevitably be at some stage during the tournament, and although the fairways are wide players often find themselves off the beaten path on account of the blustery conditions. The trouble comes in the form of thick rough and fairway bunkers and as most of the field will find themselves having to deal with both at some stage, the first key stat to look at is scrambling. Clearly, accuracy is also to be favoured over length but GIR% will be of even more importance as wayward approaches will be punished severely.
There’s also a lot of marshland that needs to be avoided at all costs and there’s little room for error around the greens. Putting is also going to be of importance as the slick greens pose a challenge for even the most confident of putters. All of this makes the course seem almost unplayable but there have been some low scores recorded here and this week should be the same. Whoever manages to pull that off will have to have nerves of steel though; this is definitely one of the more intimidating courses out there. So who has the game to win here?
To Win Outright
Webb Simpson 11/1
Matt Kuchar 12/1
Chris Kirk 14/1
Bill Haas 16/1
Zach Johnson 20/1
VALUE BETS
Scott Brown (40/1 a win, 88/10 a place)
Scott Brown looks like he may be one to keep an eye on this season and if he carries on the way he’s been playing, a victory could be well within his sights soon. He’s got the 2014/2015 season off to a bang with two Top 15s in his last two events and improved on his twelfth place finish at the Frys.com with a T10 last week. He also seems to enjoy this course and finished T4 here last year. Against a weaker field he could have a real chance of finishing inside the Top 5 so I’m backing Scott Brown for places here.
Bill Haas (16/1 a win, 7/2 a place)
Bill Haas finished last season off with a bang and a quick look at his stats over the past few months shows that he ticks a lot of boxes here this week. He’s ranked inside the Top 20 for GIR% and more importantly on a short course like this, sixth in GIR% from 150 yards out. He’ll find himself in that range a lot this week and against a weak field should be a serious contender. Each way on Haas looks like a good bet, get on.
Brian Harman (55/1 a win, 12/1 a place)
Brian Harman will be hoping that he can follow in Chris Kirk’s footsteps and be the second local player in as many years to win the McGladrey Classic. This is Harman’s home course and he’s taken a bit of a break over the past few weeks so one would assume that he’s played more than a few rounds here during that time to get himself ready for this one. When he won the John Deere Classic he didn’t put a foot wrong and showed that he has the all-round game to handle tricky courses and this week he certainly looks to offer a lot of value at 55/1. Each way on Harman is my tip here.
TOP BET: Webb Simpson (11/1 a win, 24/10 a place)
Webb Simpson will arrive in Georgia as the favourite and for good reason. Based on his current form, his game looks to be in far better shape than anyone else’s and added to that is the fact that he has a great record in this tournament. He ended last season with a string of great finishes and picked up where he left off with a T4 at the Shriners Open. He also finished T7 here last year. 11/1 is a bit short for my liking but Simpson looks like he’s going to be the best of the lot and worth an each way bet.
