Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Valspar Championship | Thursday 13 March – Sunday 16 March | Copperhead GC
If you’re scratching your head, wondering why this tournament sounds so unfamiliar, you can stop now. Previously known as the Tampa Bay Championship, this is the first installment of the tournament under its new moniker but apart from the name change, not much else will be different. Copperhead Golf Club is known to be one of the toughest courses around and with its tight fairways and small greens, this 7,340 yard course provides a challenge, as a premium is placed on length and accuracy. Interestingly, there are five par 3s to be played so keep an eye on the players who are accurate with their irons and who will be able to make birdies here. It’s one of those tournaments where the winner will need to be a player on top of his game and in control of all aspects of it. Who has the ability to be crowned the champion here this week? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Harris English 18/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Luke Donald 22/1
Jason Dufner 22/1
VALUE BETS
Webb Simpson (28/1 a win, 62/10 a place)
I tipped Webb Simpson last week and he proved to be a real disappointment, but I’m not letting that stop me and I’ll be sticking to my guns again here. He knows this course well and really enjoys it and he proved this last year when he finished a respectable T17. As good as that finish was, it was a pretty poor display by his standards as prior to that he managed a second and T13 in 2011 and 2010 respectively. He plays his irons really well and is one of the better players from tee to green, complemented by his sublime putting skills. With his solid iron play he should love the par 3s. I’m going each way on Simpson to try and recoup some of the losses last week.
Luke Donald (22/1 a win, 48/10 a place)
Despite the fact that his game doesn’t quite seem to be where it should be at the moment, it is tough to ignore Luke Donald on this track. He appears to love it here and his previous results prove this. A win in 2012 is backed by solid performances in 2010 and 2013 where he finished T6 and T4 respectively. His season of ups and downs has had a few highlights, which include a T8 at the Honda, and maybe a return to a course he loves will give him his first win of the season.
Gary Woodland (40/1 a win, 88/10 a place)
Gary Woodland isn’t known to be one of the most consistent players on the Tour but he can play some great golf at times. A T16 last week was the result of a lot of hard work and showed that he has the mental fortitude to overcome a poor round. His T10 at the Farmers was equally hard-fought. He seems to struggle to play consistently for four days but he has done it here and that saw him finish with a win in 2011. He’ll be eager to repeat that and if his game is on point, I reckon he can. Each way is the bet here for me.
TOP BET: Brandt Snedeker (50/1 a win, 11/1 a place)
It’s always tough for me to pick a top bet because whilst it may often be the case that I feel a player has a real opportunity to do well, the price is not always right. Every now and then some real value appears though and that is the case with Snedeker this week. There’s no denying that he isn’t at his best at the moment but with players of his calibre that can change in an instant and the key to making serious money in golf betting is predicting when that could happen. At his best, he will be able to handle this course as well as anyone and we saw that in 2011 and 2008 when he managed to finish fourth and second respectively. Those performances came a few years ago though and for me the real appeal derives from his unmatched ability on par 3s. With five of those for him to enjoy this week we could see a return to form from Snedeker and I’m certainly hoping that will be the case. Each way is the bet for me.
