Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Valero Texas Open | Thursday 27 March – Sunday 30 March | TPC San Antonio
This week golf fans will be in for a treat, as the Tour heads to Texas for what is arguably one of the toughest tournaments of the year, the Valero Texas Open. The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a 7,435 yard par 72 and is notoriously difficult to make birdies on. The reasons for this are numerous and include the fact that the tree-lined fairways are incredibly narrow and are lined with deep bunkers which even the finest players struggle to get out of. Added to this is the fact that even when players manage to hit the fairway, they are faced with a real challenge as the numerous ups and downs mean that it is nearly always difficult to get a decent lie, the result being a lot of frustration and wayward approaches. When looking to find someone who can win this you need to look for players who have a great all round game. Accuracy off the tee is important but this needs to be complemented by good GIR stats and solid bunker play. So who will win this one? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Zach Johnson 16/1
Matt Kuchar 16/1
Phil Mickelson 16/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Jim Furyk 22/1
VALUE BETS
Charley Hoffman (25/1 a win, 11/2 a place)
When it comes to course form, there are few players who have better claims here than Charley Hoffman. A veteran of this tournament, he has always done well in these tough conditions and he has come close to taking the top spot on more than one occasion. In 2011 he was narrowly edged out by an on-fire Brendan Steele and last year he came close again, finishing third. His current form shows that he has what it takes to string together four solid rounds and two Top 10 finishes so far this year will stand him in good stead coming into this. Each way here is the bet for me.
Brendan Steele (35/1 a win, 77/10 a place)
Brendan Steele looks like a really appealing bet this week and the 35/1 on offer is just too good to ignore. He was the one who narrowly edged Hoffman out in 2011 and he nearly won again in 2012 but was unfortunately relegated to a respectable fourth. A 20th at Bay Hill last week was one of his better finishes this season but he has managed two in the Top 10 and will be eager to make that three in a tournament he loves. Each way here looks a good bet to me.
Freddie Jacobson (28/1 a win, 62/10 a place)
Freddie Jacobson is yet another player who has fared well in Texas in the past and could just upset the field this week. He’s playing some great golf at the moment and a T10 at Bay Hill came on the back of two Top 20’s in the two weeks prior to that. His record here since 2010 reads second, fifth, eighteenth and fifteenth so expect him to be in the mix again. 28/1 looks a bit too generous, get on while you can.
TOP BET: Billy Horschel (40/1 a win, 88/10 a place)
To me, Billy Horschel has as good a chance as anyone else this week and at 40/1 he looks the best value of the lot. An up and down season thus far has seen him pull off a few good finishes, his best being a T6 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions against some really stiff competition, the likes of which he will be not be facing this week. He enjoys the course and fared well here last year and with his current stats, which include 35th in GIR and 4th in Total Driving, he could have what it takes to tame this beast of a course. Each way on Horschel looks a great bet to me, get on.
