Written by Matt Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Web.com Tour Championship | 01 October – 04 October | TPC Sawgrass, Dye’s Valley |
There aren’t any PGA Tour events on this week so in a desperate attempt to find some value we’re turning our attention to the Web.com Tour which hosts its final event of the season this week. For the past three years this has been hosted at TPC Sawgrass although don’t be fooled, this is not the Stadium Course, which hosted the Players Championship, but rather the lesser known and less challenging Dye’s Valley.
Named after its designer, the course plays a lot easier than its more famous namesake. It was designed with weekend golfers in mind and as such scores are generally low here. That means that the first stat to keep an eye on is birdie making ability, an absolute must if players are going to go all the way this week. Although the course plays easier than its more famous counterpart, there are a few challenges thrown into the mix and knowing how to handle these will be vital. A number of water hazards can be found just off the lush fairways so accuracy with the driver is a huge plus, as is GIR% considering that getting it close to the pin and making birdies will mean the difference between winning and losing. As this is the final event of the season everyone will be keen to walk away with one more win and a number of well-known golfers are participating. These include the likes of Jamie Lovemark and Andres Romero, who have to be respected in this company. Throw into the mix a host of young up-and-comers looking to make a name for themselves and you have what looks to be an interesting affair. Let’s hope we find a winner here, there’s some great golf to look forward to next week and a bit of float will make that even more enjoyable.
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To Win Outright
Jamie Lovemark 20/1
Emiliano Grillo 22/1
Chez Reavie 25/1
Roberto Castro 25/1
Andres Romero 28/1
VALUE BETS
Dawie van Der Walt (33/1 a win, 66/10 a place)
The big hitting South African Dawie van der Walt has been making waves on the Web.com Tour over the past few weeks and he seems to be peaking at just the right time. Two Top 10s in his last two starts were the result of ultra-consistent golf and this week it looks like the course will suit his “go for broke” brand of golf. He should be able to muscle his way around here with ease. I’m going to be patriotic and back him each way, don’t miss out on what looks to be a great value bet this week.
Andres Romero (28/1 a win, 56/10 a place)
A complete meltdown a few weeks ago saw Romero do the unthinkable and tee off with a putter (seriously). I’m not letting that put me off however, and I will be keeping a close eye on him this week. He’s certainly bounced back from that shocking display and has managed a few Top 10s in recent weeks, making him one of the form players in the field. Romero hits more greens in regulation than most of this week’s field. He will want to ensure he converts these opportunities into birdies, especially considering the low scoring nature of the course. Let’s hope he arrives with a level head and doesn’t start punching tee signs again (yes, he did that too).
Brad Fritsch (50/1 a win, 10/1 a place)
In these events, it’s always worth looking out for a big price or two to back each way. Brad Fritsch is the man who ticks that box this week. A second place finish earlier in the year proved he’s capable of putting in solid performances and although he’s yet to win in 2015, I’m holding thumbs that changes this week. He also loves the course and finished in a respectable tenth place in 2012 and was the runner-up at the event in 2013. At this price an each way bet is certainly worth the risk, here’s hoping he comes out firing.
TOP BET: Jamie Lovemark (20/1 a win, 4/1 a place)
Lovemark looks to be the form player in the field this week. A host of great performances in the past few weeks culminated in a well-deserved second-place last time out. Lovemark is one of the most consistent golfers on the Tour and when he’s in form it’s tough to find a fault in his game. One area he could struggle with is his putting game, but I’m hoping his iron play is good enough to ensure that it isn’t an issue this week. I reckon Lovemark has this field pretty much beat already and for that reason he’s my top bet.
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