US PGA Championship: FedEx Cup Playoffs

 Damien Kayat had his A-game last weekend, picking Sam Horsfield to win in Europe while Kevin Kisner trundled into the places in Texas. Let’s hope that he can carry that positive juju into the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Clearly, this year has been compromised by the Coronavirus Pandemic. But that hasn’t really been reflected in the FedEx Cup rankings. The usual suspects abound in what is building up to be a magnificent climax to the event (sans fans). The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup rankings will be whittled down to 70 prior to next weeks event at Olympia Fields. The final 30 will then duke it out at East Lake in what is always a fittingly epic conclusion to the FedEx Cup. 

Image Copyright – Steve Haag Sports

The US PGA Tour
The Northern Trust Open
TPC Boston, Norton, Massachusetts
20th – 23rd August

I had his A-game last weekend, picking Sam Horsfield to win in Europe while Kevin Kisner trundled into the places in Texas. Let’s hope that I can carry that positive juju into the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Clearly, this year has been compromised by the Coronavirus Pandemic. But that hasn’t really been reflected in the FedEx Cup rankings. The usual suspects abound in what is building up to be a magnificent climax to the event (sans fans). The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup rankings will be whittled down to 70 prior to next weeks event at Olympia Fields. The final 30 will then duke it out at East Lake in what is always a fittingly epic conclusion to the FedEx Cup.

This is an event that has had as many incarnations as James Bond. The event was first staged in 1967 and known as the Westchester Classic. Jack Nicklaus won the inaugural edition, starting a tradition of excellent champions. This event has kicked off the FedEx Cup Playoff Series since its inception in 2007 (though it was formerly known as the Barclays). The event is a nomadic affair that will take place at TPC Boston this year. Luckily for us, TPC Boston was the home of the recently defunct Dell Technologies, giving us some statistical content to work with.

TPC Boston is a par 71 measuring a tad under 7350 yards. The Arnold Palmer design was opened in 2002 and was home to the now-defunct Dell Technologies Championship. It has undergone a variety of tweaks since its inception as a FedEx Cup Playoff course. Gil Hanse stirred some controversy with changes that attempted to lessen the hegemony of the bigger hitters. It worked to some extent, though the last three champions here read DeChambeau, Thomas and McIlroy. Length off the tee seems to be making a real comeback at TPC Boston.

Jim Herman’s victory last week highlights the perils of attempting to predict a US PGA tour event.  Herman now owns the same amount of PGA Tour titles as Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay put together. But I don’t think that the pugnacious Herman will be much of a factor this week. FedEx Cup leader Justin Thomas leads the markets alongside Bryson DeChambeau. Rory McIlroy will be hoping for his perennial late-season turbo boost after some poor post-lockdown form. Tiger Woods will be looking to really push his body in the upcoming weeks (perhaps an indication of why he took so long to come out of hibernation).

Past Winners 
2019: Patrick Reed (-16)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
2017: Dustin Johnson (-13) *playoff 
2016: Patrick Reed (-9)
2015: Jason Day (-19)

Past Five Winners at this Course 
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-16)
2017: Justin Thomas (-17)
2016: Rory McIlroy (-15)
2015: Rickie Fowler (-15)
2014: Chris Kirk (-15)

Value Bets

Patrick Reed
To Win (28/1), To Place (6/1)
Reed is someone who has an eye for the big occasion. The former Masters Champion has two FedEx Cup Playoff titles and two WGC titles to his name.  He won this very event for the 2nd time at Liberty National last year. Reed’s game seems to be showing some encouraging signs. He finished 10th at Memorial prior to a 13th place at the US PGA Championship. Another top 10 at the Wyndham last week augers well for the rambunctious American. Finishes here of 4-5-6 suggests that he has it in him to succeed at TPC Boston, even without the boisterous crowd (which typically fosters the Ryder Cup-style atmosphere that he loves).

Billy Horschel
To Win (60/1), To Place (13/1)
I have got to give a shout-out to my man Billy Horschel this week. The affable American is a former FedEx Cup Champion who thrives in these ‘post-season’ spectacles (though with the US Open and Masters still to come this year, this feels more like a pre-season tune-up). He won here in 2014 and is coming off a heart-breaking one-shot defeat at the Wyndham. He narrowly missed a ten-footer that would have sent the match into a playoff. He struck the ball beautifully in North Carolina and looks a great price to place at 13/1.

The Man to Beat

Jason Day
To Win (25/1), To Place (11/2)
There was a time there where I seriously doubted the former World Number One’s ability to return to the upper echelons of men’s golf. He failed to register a single top-five finish in 14 starts following last year’s Masters. This was anathema for a man who was indisputably the world’s best player four years ago. But finishes of 4-6-4-7 in his last four starts point to a serious uptick in form. Day was in real contention to win his 2nd Major at TPC Harding Park.  He has done everything except win at TPC Boston. He has eight top 25’s in 11 starts, including a 2nd and 3rd place.