Wells Fargo Championship | Thursday 5 May – Sunday 8 May | Quail Hollow Club
Defending champion Rory McIlroy is back to defend his title this week. He leads a very solid looking field that includes 14 of the world’s top-25 golfers. This top notch field will face a tough task at the lengthy par-72 Quail Hollow which usually offers a challenging test.
The final three holes, dubbed the “Green Mile”, are among the toughest finishing holes in golf. Players will need plenty of length to tackle the Par 4 16th which measures over 500 yards. The 17th is a Par 3 featuring plenty of water that players will have to cross to land on a peninsula green over 220 yards away. The closer is a great finishing hole featuring a creek on the left, a bunker on the right, and not many birdies are expected here.
I’m going to keep this as simple as possible. We’re going to be backing the big hitters who can score on the Par 5s and have a decent touch around the green. Let’s get to it.
To Win Outright
Rory McIlroy 9/2 | Dustin Johnson 14/1 | Rickie Fowler 16/1 Adam Scott 16/1
Value Bets
Daniel Berger (45/1 Win & 10/1 Place)
Berger has been consistent if not spectacular on tour recently, recording four straight T20s, including a Top 5 finish at the Shell Houston and a Top 10 at the Masters. He possesses the ideal combination of distance and approach play from a bit further out to warrant a bit of a punt. He finished T28 on his debut at Quail Hollow last year, but returns a more rounded player capable of breaking through.
Jason Kokrak (80/1 Win & 17/1 Place)
With some unfancied winners coming on tour this season, Kokrak could well be the next on that list. His game is well-suited to Quail Hollow, where his booming drive and ability to tame the Par 5s have to be considered. He’s a bit of a hit-or-miss player, but his T6 at the Valero Texas Open and T2 at the Northern Trust Open show he can hold it together over four rounds. If he does this week, we could be looking at a handsome payout.
Lucas Glover (150/1 Win & 27/1 Place)
As the odds suggest, this one is a bit of a long shot. Glover has had a tough time of late and has slumped to No. 278 in the world rankings. However, Quail Hollow was the site of his last win on tour back in 2011 and his recent results suggest there may be cause for optimism. He’s made his last four cuts and boasts seven top 30 finishes at the Wells Fargo in addition to his win, including a tie for second in 2009. He may not go on to win the thing, but 27/1 a place could be worth a small punt.
Best Bet
Adam Scott (18/1 Win & 4/1 Place)
I had every intention of backing Rory McIlroy here, but at 9/2 he’s just too short for my liking. I’ll look instead to Scott, who has already won twice on tour this season and leads the FedEx Cup rankings. The Australian ranks high in the necessary categories – (13) Driving Distance, (2) Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, (1) Approaches from 200-225 Yards and (1) Par 5 Scoring Average. He’s coming off a couple week break following the Masters and will be fresh and ready to fire. I’m going to have a decent sized punt on him and I suggest you do the same.
Written by Commodore Vegas for @Hollywoodbets.
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