Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Newcastle, Australia on Friday.
Best Bet: EYES TO EYE (Race 5)
Value Bet: HARPO MARX (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8).
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
8 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
9 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
3 | 3 | 13 | |
5 | |||
8 |
Cost: R90.00
Race 5.
EYES TO EYE has had just the two runs to date, but he made the expected improvement to win by just over half a length over the 1500M at the second time of asking, this despite shifting out at the 200M mark. He went from jump to wire that day and from draw six, he is likely to adopt similar tactics here. He is sure to have made further improvement and as such, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
AMORE is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she had her consistency rewarded with a short-head victory last time out over a mile. She was crowded shortly after the start that day and was then forced to check at the 250M pole, but recovered well to finish off her race well. She has a wide draw twelve, but on the plus side, she will have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and will have her peak run after returning from a 25 week break.
DHAKURI finished fifth in his last outing over seven furlongs, 8.4L behind the winner, but he was returning from an 18 week absence and that distance seems short of his best. From a handy draw two, he returns to what appears to be a more suitable trip today.
Race 6.
GREAT NEWS boasts a record of five wins, five second places and two third place finishes from her twelve runs to date. She finished in one of those third places last time out over 1350M, 0.7L behind the winner, but she did come three wide into the home straight that day. She hit the front at the 200M mark and was only run out of very late. She will have to negotiate draw nine, bur she does have her peak outing after returning from a 20 week rest.
MORE PROPHETS renews her rivalry with the top choice, having won the race referred to above, but as she is now 2kgs worse off at today’s weights, she may battle to confirm that last result. Having said that, she does go for her hat-trick here and has a slightly better draw six. In addition, it should be noted that her jockey put up 1kg overweight in that last contest.
BRING THE RANSOM is drawn in gate eight and finished second in the same race as the top two selections, 0.2L behind the winner. She is also 2kgs better off with the latter, but she does not seem to be as consistent as the top two picks. She did however battle all the way down to the wire in that last contest and when all is said and done, there probably won’t be much separating the trio when the reach the finishing post.
Race 7.
Today’s value bet, HARPO MARX goes for his hat-trick after victories over twelve furlongs and the latest over ten furlongs by a head. He only saw daylight at the 300M mark in that race, but then chased down the leaders over the closing stages. He jumps from a cozy draw two and the trio of wins is very much on the cards.
CRIMINAL CODE is seldom far off the action and had to be held up early in the home straight before finishing well to end up in second spot last time out over 2100M, just over a length and a half off the winner. He faces a wide gate fourteen out of fifteen, but given his style of racing, he is likely to be dropped out of it early and then start to pick off the frontrunners over the latter stages of the race.
BERDIBEK also goes for his hat-trick after winning his last outing over 2100M by 1.8L, notwithstanding him coming the widest of them all into the home stretch. He stayed on well that day and from his wide gate eleven, he should be doing his best work late.
Race 8.
This looks to be a tricky race to end off the day’s Jackpot with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. ROCK was switched at the 150M mark and then had to checked at the 75M mark, so under the circumstances, he did well to end up in fourth place last time out over seven furlongs, just over four lengths adrift of the victor. He will have to overcome a wide gate eleven, but he has his peak run after returning from a 19 week break.
ITZ LILY is a 6yr old mare taking on males, but she followed up her penultimate run victory over a mile with a second place finish in her next outing over 1500m, just a half length back from the winner. She was making good late progress in that contest and may not be too trouble by the wideish draw nine as she is likely to be finishing off her race well.
ASHMAN, on the other hand, has cracked pole position and has consistent formlines to his name. Although recorded as finishing seventh last time out over 1500M, he was only 1.7L behind the winner. He overraced in the early stages and found himself at the head of affair, but still found extra to stay on well over the latter stages of the race. He should be included in all bets.
