Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips for Thursday’s racing from Kembla Grange, Australia.
Best Bet: NO IMPEDIMENT (Race 8)
Value Bet: COMMAND KING (Race 5)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
The day’s value bet, COMMAND KING has only had the five runs to date, posting two wins, two seconds and one third-place finish. His latest being one of those second spot finishes over 1300M, just a neck behind the winner when returning from a 27-week break. He finished well that day and from his handy draw three, he is likely to turn in another honest performance here.
NELSPRUIT has consistent formlines to his name and stayed on well when finishing second in his latest outing over six furlongs, two and a half lengths back from the victor. He has his peak run here after returning from a 24-week break and despite having a wideish draw nine, the gelding should be a factor in this line-up.
CRAZY TRAIN is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she showed good improvement to win her last start over 1300M by almost half a length when returning from a 16-week rest. She jumped awkwardly that day and found herself towards the rear of the field turning for home, but finished strongly when only seeing daylight at the 300M mark. On that effort, she should relish the extra ground on offer today.
There are now three unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected.
Of the raced runners, INSURGENCE may prove to be the best. He is a 2yr old colt taking on older horses, but he jumped awkwardly before finishing strongly when ending up in fourth place when making his debut over six furlongs, 2.7L behind the winner. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, he could be the one that they all have to beat, this notwithstanding his wide draw eleven. He also gets blinkers fitted for the first time today.
Two 3yr old fillies could chase him home, with the slight preference going to COMEBACK STAR who returns from a 22-week break but has had the benefit of a barrier trial, where she finished second. On the face of it, her last run over 1500M where she finished eleventh over 1500M, just over seven lengths adrift of the winner appears weak, but she came three-wide into the home straight that day and no less than five runners out of that contest have subsequently come out and won.
CONTRACT SIGNED has her first run since returning from a shorter 16-week rest and has put in two encouraging barrier trials. She was hampered shortly after the start and then held up at the 800M pole before ending up in fourth place last time out over a mile, 3.8L back from the winner. She was also reported to have pulled a near hind shoe in the running that day. She faces a wide gate twelve, but she should be doing her best work late.
BEAUCHAMP is seldom far off the action and finished second last time out over 1100M, 0.8L adrift of the winner. He stayed on well that day and the form of that race has been franked. He will have to negotiate draw twelve, but he seems likely to turn in another honest performance today.
EXPLOSIVE TRUTH is drawn one inside the top choice and had consistent form before being a tad disappointing last time out when stepping up to 1350m, finishing ninth over 1350M, 9.9L behind the winner. He had won over 1250M three runs back and should do better here now that he drops to what appears to be a more suitable distance.
EBERLEE is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she was hampered shortly after the start before ending up in third place last time out over six furlongs, six and a half lengths back from the winner when returning from a lengthy 50-week absence. She has pulled a wideish gate seven, but should still give the boys a good run for their money.
NO IMPEDIMENT goes for his hat-trick after two victories over five furlongs, the latest by 0.7L. He was hanging in over the closing stages of that race which was the first since returning from a 17-week break. He jumps from a handy draw two and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
BIGGER THAN THORN has solid formlines to his credit and came from some way back when ending up in second spot last time out over five furlongs, just 0.7L behind the winner. The gelding faces a wide draw thirteen out of fourteen, but he is likely to be dropped out of it early and start picking off the front runners over the latter stages.
Although SKYRAY is recorded as finishing eighth in his latest outing over six furlongs, he was just under two and a half lengths behind the winner and that was after being slow away and having to be eased off the heels of other runners. He faces a wide draw eleven and returns from a 23-week absence, but he has recorded an encouraging barrier trial and should be included in all bets.