Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Wyong, Australia on Tuesday 21 September 2021.
Best Bet: SHIHONKA (Race 5)
Value Bet: EYEWITNESS (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
With the late scratching of one of her main rivals, the door may have opened for today’s best bet SHIHONKA to chalk up her maiden career victory. She has only had the two runs to date, finishing second on debut and then a just over two lengths third last time out, both over today’s trip. She came four-wide into the home straight that day and was then bumped at the 200M mark, before staying on well over the closing stages and the form of that race has been franked. She returns from an 18-week break, but she has had the benefit of a barrier trial, which she won. With the four late scratching at the time of writing, she will come into gate seven and could prove difficult to topple.
STUNNING TO WIN put her disappointing penultimate run behind her when finishing fourth last time out over five furlongs, just under two and a half lengths back from the winner when returning from a 25-week break. That effort was made more encouraging by the fact that she was slow away and then overraced in the early and middle stages, then only saw daylight at the 200M mark and finally having her jockey drop his crop at the 100M pole. Now jumping from gate five, she could be the biggest danger to the top choice.
DRUMMIN is drawn one inside the latter and was slow away and bumped shortly after the start when ending up in eighth place in her latest outing over five furlongs, 8.2L adrift of the victor. She was returning from a 19 week rest that day and did finish second over this trip three runs back. If recapturing that form, she should be involved in the finish. There are two unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected.
CONGLOMERATE has consistent formlines to his name having finished second twice prior to ending up in third spot last time out over five furlongs, one and a half lengths back from the winner, this despite him being reported to be lame in his near-hind. He has pulled gate five and will be having his peak run after returning from a 37-week break.
RAHNI FACTOR is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three outings, the latest when third over five furlongs, one and a half lengths behind the winner. She tried to go from jump to wire that day and from pole position, she seems likely to attempt similar tactics today.
KISS SUM had his consistency rewarded with a two and a half-length win last time out over 1100M and was immediately rested for 17 weeks. He returns here having finished fourth in his only barrier trial, but he finished strongly to win that last start and is sure to put his handy draw three to good use.
Two 4yr old fillies and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race, but the day’s value bet, EYEWITNESS is taken to lead the way home. She has won two of her last three runs, the latest when going from gun to tape to claim victory over 1100M by 0.8L. She will have to negotiate gate ten, but she should use her natural gate speed to move across with expending too much energy.
UNDENIABLE on the other hand has cracked pole position and followed up her penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a fourth-place finish next time out over the same c&d, 0.7L behind the winner. She raced wide that day which would not have helped her cause, but she will have 3kgs removed from her allocated weight today courtesy of her claiming apprentice.
CASSY’S SISTER had solid form before finishing third in her latest start over six furlongs, four and a half lengths off the winner. It should however be noted that she put her head in the adjoining stall just before the field was sent on their way, losing eight lengths as a result. If behaving here, she should be considered a big runner in this line-up.
DIFFERENT STROKES has only had the four runs to date, winning one, finishing second in two and third on the other occasion. He won his penultimate start over 1300M and then finished third last time out when stepping up to 1500M, 0.8L behind the winner. He raced just behind the leaders that day and then only just failed to collar the winner in the dash down to the wire. He jumps from a cosy gate three and should turn in another honest performance today.
INVINCIBLE VISION showed plenty of toe to win by one and a half lengths when making his debut over six furlongs and could be just about anything. He would have learnt from that experience and notwithstanding his wide-ish draw nine, he should be right up there in the firing line.
FALSE STEP is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she was slow away, hampered shortly after the start and then only got a clear passage at the 350M mark before finishing her race off well. She was returning from a 19-week absence that day and the form of that race has been franked. From her kinder draw two, she should be included in all bets.