Australian Racing Tips – 18 November 2021 – Hawkesbury

Best Bet: THIS’LLBETHEONE (Race 7)

Value Bet: DON ARCANGELO (Race 5)

Jackpot (race 5 – 8).

Cost: R54.00

Race 5.

DON ARCANGELO was bumped at the start and overraced in the early stages, but still managed to make good late progress when finishing up in ninth place last time out over a mile, three and a half lengths behind the winner when returning from a 17-week break. He won by 3.3L over 2300M three runs back and should appreciate the step up in distance. From his handy draw four, he is made the value bet on the day’s card. Two 6yr old mares could chase him home with the slight preference going to MERLINITE, who had finished second in her last two runs over staying distances prior to ending up in third place last time out over twelve furlongs, just over five lengths adrift of the victor. She was however hampered shortly after the start and then did not get the clearest of passages over the closing stages of the contest. She has cracked pole position and should turn in another honest performance today. ETHERIDGE has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three outings, the latest when a staying on third over 2100M, two lengths back from the winner. She is drawn one outside the latter and has her peak run after returning from a 25-week break.

Race 6.

There are six unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners RUSSIAN RUBLE may prove to be the best. The gelding has only had the three runs to date and has not been too far off the action in all three outings, finishing fifth last time out, but just 2.7L behind the winner. He was returning from a 20-week rest that day and did jump awkwardly and then only saw daylight at the 150M mark before finishing off his race well. The form of that race has been franked and from gate five, he looks to be the one to side with here. WIZARD OF OZ showed marked improvement when finishing strongly to be placed fourth in his latest outing over seven furlongs, just under one and a half lengths behind the winner when returning from a longer 30-week absence. He will have to overcome a wide draw fourteen, but given his style of racing, he should be doing his best work late. MIDNIGHT OASIS is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she overraced in the early stages before coming four wide into the home stretch to end up in third spot last time out over six furlongs, one and a half lengths off the winner. She has a far kinder gate four and will have 3kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice.

Race 7.

The day’s best bet, THIS’LLBETHEONE won a short-head on debut over seven furlongs after four barrier trials, the latest of which he won and could be just about anything. He raced up with the pace that day and then battled all the way down to the wire and the form of that race has been franked. He did take a bump at the 100M mark that day and on that effort, he may prove to be difficult to topple here. SPALTET also won first time out, but in his case, over 1300m and was immediately rested for 54 weeks. He returned to finish third next time out when stepping up to 1300M, 3.3L behind the winner, despite coming four wide into the home straight. He will have to negotiate draw nine, but the fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them. KING OF SPADES is drawn one inside the latter and is another who won on debut, but over six furlongs and then followed that up with a second spot finish last time out over seven furlongs, 1.8L back from the winner when returning from a 14-week rest. The gelding is the stable companion to the top pick and was slow away on that occasion, before getting going far too late. With better luck in running today, he should be involved in the finish.

Race 8.

YUMI is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she goes for her hat-trick after two victories over this trip, the latest by one length. She stayed on well that day and the form of the race has been franked. She gets a cozy draw two and she should give the boys a good run for their money. DEFICIT finished fifth last time out over seven furlongs, 4.3L back from the winner when returning from a 19 week absence, but he jumped awkwardly that day and was also reported to be lame in his near-fore, so that effort is best ignored. He faces a wide draw ten, but nevertheless, he should not be lightly dismissed in this line-up. SALLY POPS is another 4yr old filly in the race. She showed plenty of toe before ending up in sixth place last time out over 1300M, two and a half lengths adrift of the victor. She has her peak run after returning from a 23-week break and is drawn the widest of them all in gate fourteen, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy and should be included in all bets.