Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday’s racing at Warracknabeal and Randwick, including day two of the Championships (with video analysis).
Other international racing tips for Saturday:
Ascot
Morphettville
Race 6 THE STAR AUSTRALIAN OAKS
(Group 1) 2400m
No1 PROBABEEL
Trainer: Jamie Richards – Jockey: Opie Bosson
The Waterhouse stable provides the only obvious pace in the contest with DOROTHEA OF OZ and Vinery Stakes heroine SHOUT THE BAR. In the likely event of this pair doing the donkey work, PROBABEEL will surely opt for a slot that enables her not to get too far adrift of the leaders under Opie Bosson. Connections of that latter will be cheered by the fact that three of the last six Oaks winners have been trained in New Zealand, and following Quick Thinker’s Australian Derby triumph last weekend the Kiwis are looking for a Classic clean sweep. Three wins and two seconds from her five runs this season paints an alluring picture and taking out the prestigious Surround three back before near misses in the Phar Lap and the Vinery is arguably the best form on the table, though she has to show she stays this far. True, Shout The Bar beat her in the Vinery but there was little in it with Funstar, who cuts back in trip in Race 9 today, also right in the mix. In order for Shout The Bar to last over 2400, she will, however, need to be left alone in front. The Godolphin-owned COLETTE has Glen Boss in the plate as she bids to follow-up a commanding performance in the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes last time in which she produced a dazzling turn of foot to put the race to bed. It was her third win in succession from just five career starts, but for me, the daughter of Hallowed Crown is a false favourite. She had enjoyed spaces of a month before her previous two triumphs but now steps up to the top table off a far shorter break. NUDGE is all about consistency and has little to find from the Vinery placings, but whether she can do that at this distance is questionable.
Prediction: 1-4-2-3
Race 7 THE SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP
(Group 1) 3200m
No2 YOUNG RASCAL
Trainer: William Haggas – Jockey: Tom Marquand
Market rivals YOUNG RASCAL and MUSTAJEER will look to sit on the pace injected by Newcastle Cup and St Leger winner HUSH WRITER in the early stages of a fascinating contest with both their pilots content in the knowledge they should get every yard of the trip. Young Rascal put up a fine staying performance to win the Manion Cup on his first run Down Under and with a slight drop in the weight (3kg) should be better for it. He loves a soft track and his jockey Tom Marquand is riding like a man possessed. He displayed fighting qualities to get the job done that day. Enormous winner Mustajeer finished less than two lengths off the winner in the Caulfield Cup on his first start in Australia. He then bagged the Parramatta Cup three back and last time chased the shadow of the impressive Verry Elleegant in the Tancred. The Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott-trained Hush Writer needs to leave his last three efforts behind on a return to his favoured Sydney as well as the ground to dry out while GALLIC CHIEFTAIN looms as a lively roughie after three runs back from a break and should improve to get into the money. RAHEEN HOUSE represents the same connections as Mustajeer on the back of a fine win in the Chairman’s Quality. He delighted Hugh Bowman in some work last week, will stay all day and is going to be even more of a threat should the going get any softer than it already is.
Prediction: 2-4-1-5
Race 8 LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES
(Group 1) 2000m
No2 ADDEYBB (Nap)
Trainer: William Haggas – Jockey: Tom Marquand
This $2 million contest, won for the last three years by the mighty Winx, threatens to prove a tremendous edition and the highlight of the day as British raider ADDEYBB attempts to supplement his taking triumph at Rosehill. His trainer William Haggas pinpointed New South Wales as the overseas destination he was most likely to find the cut in the ground that his emerging star greatly benefits from, and so it transpired as the 6yo impressively landed the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes from VERRY ELLEEGANT. His well being was clear for all to see on the VT after he worked with stablemate Young Rascal at the Canterbury Park training centre earlier in the week. On the face of it, it will take an optimist to envisage subsequent impressive Tancred Stakes victor Verry Elleegant turning the tables on Haggas’s runner, despite very encouraging messages from her stable and the fact that Nash Rawiller can execute his navigation from a soft draw. On the back of his Ranvet win, Addeybb has shared favouritism for the Queen Elizabeth with Japanese star DANON PREMIUM. ADDEYBB is expected to go forward on Saturday from his perfect slot on the rail, as he did a fortnight ago, with Danon Premium getting smothered up by his pilot James McDonald and riding his luck rounding the home bend and early in the home straight. Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner Danon Premium has only ever raced on good ground in his ten-race career whereas his rival has won seven times and been placed three times on wet tracks. That said, the Japanese raider has beaten Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and finished close behind that country’s star horse Almond Eye. There is a dual Kiwi challenge for the prize from barn mates TE AKAU SHARK and MELODY BELLE representing Jamie Richards. Chipping Norton Stakes winner Te Akau Shark is generally third-best in the book and his effort to claim third in the Cox Plate reads especially well. However, he will need plenty of luck in running the way this promises to map out. Melody Belle was not far off Magic Wand in the Mackinnon and between them, the pair have netted 12 Group 1s, with no fewer than 10 won by Melody Belle. Te Akau Shark was compromised by a wide trip and a track that didn’t suit in the George Ryder Stakes, while Melody Belle picked up a minor cheque in the Doncaster Mile.
Prediction: 2-1-12-4
Race 9 THE COOLMORE LEGACY
(Group 1) 1600m
No17 FUNSTAR
Trainer: Chris Waller – Jockey: James McDonald
Chris Waller’s decision to point FUNSTAR at this shorter contest in favour of a bid for Oaks glory was in no way surprising and under James McDonald the bottom weight resonates as the one to be on, because as the only filly taking on the mares she gets all the allowances. She went off favourite for the Vinery last time but found the 2000m well wide of her comfort zone, but her victory in the Flight Stakes over course and distance in the Spring and Phar Lap triumph two runs back are impressive credentials in anyone’s book. She loves Randwick, and is one from one over the trip. NETTOYER was the complete deal breaker when swooping to conquer in the Doncaster last week and although some may claim it was a fluke she is not going to be inconvenienced now back against distaffers. But ALIZEE makes more sense as a threat to the favourite in that the Apollo Stakes winner wasn’t beaten far in the George Ryder last time and importantly takes on her own sex for the first time since going down by just over a length when topping the market for this same race 12 months ago. DANZDANZDANZ can set things up for Funstar by dictating the fractions under Opie Bosson and may hang on for a minor cheque.
Prediction: 17-1-7-2
