An action-packed card of 10 races awaits us this Sunday at Sha Tin, and punters will have to do their homework as it looks peppered with tricky races to analyse. We will have to wait until the last race on the card, for our Best Bet. That is in the form of HAPPY FUN, a speedy/progressive sort who should make light work of his opposition.
Our Value Bet on the night card arrives in the eighth race, in the form of RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE. He has plummeted in the ratings and he should give punters a decent run for their money and present some good value late on.
Best Bet: HAPPY FUN (Race 10)
Value Bet: RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE (Race 8)
Race 1 – 07:00
Selections: 3 – 7 – 4 – 6 – 2
The first of 10 races on the card looks relatively straight forward and we have sided with the consistent performing CROWN AVENUE to get us off to a good start. With the tempo likely to be slow, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Zac Purton take the son of Hard Spun up to handy position this time. He brings some consistent form with him, having not missed the first three places in his last four starts. He has notched up three of his four career wins over this trip, although he does have a slight affinity for the All-Weather track. That said, he really isn’t up against any world-beaters here and if continuing on his current trajectory, should be good enough to win this. For second we have gone with BULLISH GLORY. The Irish bred gelding has been dropping in the ratings and he lands a much-improved draw today. The 1400m looked far too short for him last time and he was clearly outpaced from the off. On his penultimate start over the course and distance, he was forced wide from gate 12 and managed to rally late under Karis Teetan, who takes the mount again today. FAMILY LEADER is still getting going in his career and he showed his best form to date, in his last start in this class. That was over this trip, when being fitted with the blinkers and they stay on today. He jumps from gate 6 and will be looking for a mid-field position to launch his challenge from and must be respected. GORGEOUS AGAIN appears to have lost form in his last two starts. Prior to that, he went close when finishing second over 2000m in this class and considering he has won 3 times over this course and distance, he has the ability to threaten here. The in-form Moreira takes this mount this time and the five-time winning son of Fastnet Rock will be looking for big improvement here.
Race 2 – 07:30
Selections: 3 – 1 – 5 – 2 – 9
ENFOLDING is yet to win in Hong Kong after 13 attempts but has found some useful form in his last few starts and he may have finished a bit closer to the winner last time out, had he jumped on terms. He is clearly in a good place since changing stables back in May this year and incidentally, Purton regains the ride after taking the mount on stable debut. He has gone close a few times in this class, over this trip and things appear to be in his favour today. It should just take a well-judged ride and he should have the class to prevail. GOOD FIT is an interesting contender here. He is clearly a preferred candidate on the All-Weather surface and he has an affinity for this trip. His challenge was impeded by traffic, at a crucial stage of his last start and he’ll be hoping for better luck this time. He has been dropping in the ratings for some time now and with the in-form Teetan retaining the ride, he should be involved in the finish. RAZOR QUEST has experienced an accelerated drop in ratings, since reverting to this class, four starts back. In addition, he finally lands a draw after having no such luck in his last three. Blinkers off today, the 7-time winner will have to go in. KHAKI steps up in trip for his return to the course, after his last start back in April this year. The son of Commands has finished just off them in recent times and if taking to the trip, should feature in this moderate field.
Race 3 – 08:00
Selections: 2 – 6 – 1 – 9 – 8
LE PANACHE improved well in his last start when returning to his favoured course. He has been dropping in the ratings for a while now and his return to Class 5 company was a good one, despite being shifted out for a run. He jumps from pole today and with the 2-pound weight turnaround with REGENCY GEM, he’ll be a challenge to beat – Sanna retains. The latter is yet to find the winners box, but he was an unlucky loser last time out. Fitted with the blinkers on that occasion, Moreira was hampered at the 250m mark and that incident probably cost them. They’ll find it much tougher from gate 10 this time around, but he does have a good turn of foot and he’ll be relying on a clear passage late. MISTER MONTE is improving with the fall in ratings in his last few starts and he put in a sound effort last time out when dropping to this class for the first time. He jumps from an improved draw this time and with the slight drop in trip, he’ll be looking to repeat those front-running tactics he employed in his last start. He must be included with the claimer retaining the ride. WICKER still has a bit of scope to surprise in a race like this, having only had 9 starts to his name. He is getting closer and closer, as his rating drops further and that was evident in his last start when overcoming a wide draw. He jumps from gate 4 this time and will be worth including.
Race 4 – 08:30
Selection: 7 – 5 – 2 – 8 – 3
LIVERBRID STAR gave his followers a decent run for their money, in his third run after a long rest recently. That was just his ninth career start and his third in Class 5 company, where he is yet to be unplaced. He has plenty of scope for an improved run, with Teetan retaining from an improved draw and we make him the one to beat. JOY MASTER found plenty of trouble in his last start, his first in this class over the course and distance. He had difficulty obtaining a clear run, in the early part of the straight. That was after initially being shifted towards the inside of a runner, after the 400m. He then shifted out approaching the 300m. Held up for a clear run thereafter, he faced more traffic issues toward the finish and it is fair to say the 8.50 length beating was more than flattering. If Purton has better luck in running, he’ll be very competitive. KWAI CHUNG ELITE was flashing home late in his last start, when dropping into this class. His reduced rating would’ve certainly helped. He jumps from a better draw this time around and the 4-year-old son of Poet’s Choice will have plenty more scope for improvement, with this being just his 8th career start. The fact that he has gone within 3.75 lengths over this trip in stronger company, his followers will be expecting a big run. BIG BULLY is still a maiden after 15 starts, but he has been knocking on the door in his last four starts since having the blinkers fitted. He finished just behind the top selection in his penultimate start, when overcoming a tricky draw. Having found traffic at the 350m in that run, he could’ve gone closer and from gate 2 today, he should have a good each-way shout.
Race 5 – 09:00
Selections: 3 – 6 – 8 – 9 – 1
SOLOMON’S BAY is back for his third run after a rest here and he has dropped a further 4 points in the ratings since his last start. He took a heavy bump at the start last time out and as such, became unbalanced shortly thereafter and a smoother start this time will certainly help. The 10-pound claiming Chan rode him in both of those comeback runs over the course and distance and with Purton up today, one gets the impression that he is here to claim top honours. From just off the pace, he will be running on and looks the one to beat. NEW ASIA SUNRISE has also been dropping in the ratings in his last few starts. He may have gone closer last time out when being inconvenienced 100m out and from a useful draw, the course and distance specialist will be looking for another big run. He has been competitive in this class and will be looking to capitalise on his reduced rating. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO returns to Class 3 company today after a nice win last time out, when drawn much wider over the course and distance. He has quite a speedy profile, so will be expected to be up handy with the early speed and from gate 5 he should get there with ease. Moreira takes the ride today and he must be respected. DECISIVE ACTION finished just behind the top selection last time out and he drops a further 4 points in the ratings, for that 5.5 length defeat. He meets the 3 on seven-pound better weight terms here and from a much better draw, looks a threat.
Race 6 – 09:35
Selections: 5 – 7 – 6 – 1 – 12
LUCKY GUY had a tough trip last time out, when finding it difficult to obtain a clear run at the top of the straight. Nevertheless, he was only beaten by a length and a half and the run confirmed his decent vein of form. He is starting to look competitive off this rating and with that decent course and distance record, looks to have a great opportunity to add another win to his career record. COLORADO HIGH showed good improvement in just his second start, when switching to the Turf. He finished just behind the 6 in that outing and returns today on 8-pound better weight terms. He still has plenty of scope for a big run and the son of Star Witness must be included. MONKEY JEWELLERY duly obliged when finding favouritism last time out, over this course and distance to land his first career victory at the fifth time of asking. Moreira retains the ride and from another good draw, he’ll be looking to make a big impression. BINGO was well beaten last time out and the wide draw may have been a contributing factor to that disappointing run. He did however, finish just behind the 6 in his penultimate start and they meet on much better weight terms today. It will be tough from that wide draw, but should he find a relatively smooth passage through, he will be finishing on top of them.
Race 7 – 10:05
Selections: 1 – 12 – 6 – 11 – 2
KING’S RACE put in a surprisingly good effort on debut when finding little support in the betting markets. The son of Foxwedge ran on strongly from a good draw, over the course and distance and he should have plenty of scope to improve on that 2.5 length beating. He has a slightly wider draw to overcome this time, but with a bit of luck in running, he looks progressive enough to win. HURRICAN HUNTER found little luck in running from a wide draw last time out and he will be looking to make up for that disappointment, with a big run today. In his penultimate start over the course and distance, Moreira took the mount and he showed them a clean pair of heels to dash home impressively. He regains the ride here and if repeating that effort, albeit in slightly stronger company, he should be very competitive. VICTORY POWER has been in consistent recent form and he confirmed that with a good effort from a tough draw last time. He debuts for his in-form trainer who has hit the ground running since taking out his license and with a set of blinkers from a good draw, must be considered. SPRINT FORWARD has dropped in the ratings since his debut run, three starts back and he showed a fair amount of improvement in that last start. That was when stepping back onto the Turf and he will be looking to go much closer over the extra furlong today. He lands a slightly improved draw and with Purton up, must be a threat.
Race 8 – 10:35
Selections: 9 – 1 – 10 – 3 – 6
The 8th race on the card is a Class 3 event, where we see our value bet on the card lining up at the start. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE has been falling in the ratings in his last few starts and he showed good resolve to finish just over 3 lengths behind the top weight over this course and distance, last time out. His 2-pound claiming apprentice retains the ride from a slightly improved draw and he will go to post a full 11 pounds better off with the 1, on that last run. He is starting to look very competitive off this rating and looks to be worth following. BUDDIES, had an event filled finish last time out and he’ll be looking for a more incident-free run this time. On that occasion he was baulked for room coming through the 250m mark and approaching the 200m he raced tight when shifting around. He was then bumped a 100m from home and finished 3 lengths back. One could say it was a fairly luckless run and he will be looking for things to go his way from gate 2. Purton regains the ride, having won on him in his penultimate start over the course and distance. As mentioned above, he is worse off at the weights with all of the 2,5 and 9 on that last run and that will make things tougher this time. RULETHEROOST has been just off them in both of those last two starts, when stepping up into this class. He drops back to a trip where he has tasted success in the past and with this being his 11th career start, he still has scope for more. This will be his first start on the Poly and if taking to the change in surface, he should be very competitive. VOLPINO is yet to find the winners box in Hong Kong, but he does know how to win, having found the winners box on two occasion before arriving on the island. He is starting to look competitive in the ratings, having dropped 6 points in his last six starts. He is back on the Poly today, where he finds a much-improved draw and with Moreira up, he must have a chance.
Race 9 – 11:10
Selections: 7 – 6 – 3 – 12 – 2
The highlight on the evenings card is here in the penultimate race of the meeting. It’s a Class 2 event over 1200m and there are some good up and coming sprinter – milers on show. What is sure to unfold is mad scramble for the early lead, as there are leaders wherever you look. We have sided with FAT TURTLE to pull it off, with a prominent forward run from Grant van Niekerk. He has been competitive since stepping up to this class two starts back and he has a good chance of grabbing a win in this class today. He has had a few tricky draws to negotiate in his last few starts and that won’t be the case today. He should find a handy position with relative ease from gate 4 and will be hard to peg back in the closing stages. We make him the one to beat. LUCKY HERO has been knocking on the door for in his last two starts and it is clear that his third win in Hong Kong is just around the corner. He has stepped into this Class with relative ease and if overcoming barrier 9, he will be right on top of them at the business end. RAGING STORM finished just in front of the latter last time out, when showing an eye-catching turn of foot over the last 250m. He is 2-pounds worse off at the weights on that run, but he loves this course and especially this trip and with Moreira retaining the ride looks an obvious inclusion. TEAM SPIRIT has taken a while to get going since stepping into this class two starts back, but he did seem to over-race on both occasions. He has the gate speed to get over from that draw and if settling well early on, he will be in with a shout here. He still has scope to progress further and clearly enjoys this course and distance.
Race 10 – 11:45
Selections: 3 – 11 – 8 – 1 – 7
The last race on the carded appears to be a competitive Class 3 event over the 1400. HAPPY FUN looks the obvious pace in the race and he will be looking to make good use of that barrier 1 draw to get there easily. He has plenty of scope to progress through this division and looks useful over this trip. With Purton up today, we make him the one to follow and the best bet on the card. CIRCUIT HASSLER has shown some good improvement in his last three starts and that may be down to the recent drop in ratings. He is starting to look rather competitive under these conditions and a prominent finish can be expected by the son of Shocking. Moreira takes the ride this time and he should be right there as they cross the line. LOOKING GOOD has also been in good consistent form of late, having not missed the first three places in his last 4 starts. Three of those runs have come in this company and two from wide draws. He jumps from gate 4 today and van Niekerk sticks with him. It is hard to imagine him not fighting out the finish, so he deserves plenty of respect. ASSIMILATE has been finishing just off them in recent times and he will be expected to finish closer and closer as he edges further down in the ratings. That may have been the case in his last start, had he not experienced difficulty obtaining a clear run in the closing stages. Thereafter, he shifted in and bumped another horse resulting in a cut on the off-fore canon. Considering that he was only beaten by just over a length from a wide draw, he should be a huge contender here.
