Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Tuesday's racing coming your way from Grafton on 30 April 2024.
Best Bet: SWANSTON (Race 7)
Value Bet: TECTONIC PLATE (Race 10)
Jackpot (race 7 – 10)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
2 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
5 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 |
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| 10 |
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Cost: R90.00
Race 7
SWANSTON has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three starts, the latest when third over a mile, 0.7L behind the winner, but that was at a stronger centre. He tried to go from jump to wire that day and was only collared late. The form of that race has been franked and from a wide draw nine, he is likely to attempt similar frontrunning tactics today and could prove difficult to reel in over the closing stages. As such, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
KAPSALI won over 1500M three runs back, finished third in his penultimate start over a mile and then third in his latest outing over the same journey, just under three and a half lengths behind the winner, but he lost two lengths at the start that day and come the widest of them all into the home straight, so he had his excuses. The gelding gets a handy draw two and if breaking on terms, he could be the biggest threat to the top choice.
SHERRIFF CODY had his consistency rewarded with a victory last time out over six furlongs, albeit by just a neck, this despite overracing in the early and middle stages. That was also at a stronger centre and from his useful draw four, he should be involved in the finish.
Race 8
This looks to be an open race with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. ROCKY ROGUE is seldom far off the action, finishing fourth last time out over six furlongs, just over one and a half lengths back from the winner, but he did hang in all the way down the home straight. The gelding faces a wide draw ten, but he could be the one that they all have to beat.
UNDER TWENTY TWO followed up his penultimate run victory over this c&d with a tenth place finish next time out over six furlongs, 9.3L back from the winner, but that was at a stronger centre, and he was carried out wide from the 900M mark. He will have to negotiate a wide gate thirteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
PICUPSTIXX was unfancied in the betting but still won by a half-length when making his debut over five furlongs. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, he may well be good enough to chalk up a quick double, notwithstanding a wide draw nine.
Race 9
Two 3-year-old fillies could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but CHOICE WITNESS is taken to lead the field home. She has consistent formlines to her name and lost two lengths at the start, but finished strongly from some way back to end up in third place last time out over 1100M, 0.7L back from the winner. She will have to deal with a wide draw fifteen, but on the plus side, she will have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice. In addition, a set of blinkers will be re-fitted for today’s outing and if this move has the desired effect, she should be a big runner here.
BERTINELLI was hampered at the 800M pole, but delivered a powerful finish to end up in seventh spot in her latest outing over 1300M, 2.8L off the winner. The filly has her peak run after returning from an 18-week rest and jumping from a kinder gate five, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
SOLAR POWER won his penultimate start over five furlongs and then did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight, forcing him to weave his way through traffic before finishing second last time out over 1100M, just a length behind the winner. The gelding will have to deal with a wide draw twelve, but he should be doing his best work late.
Race 10
As with the previous race, two fillies could fight out the finish to this race, but in this case 4yr 4-year-old fillies, to secure the exacta, but the day’s value bet, TECTONIC PLATE could be the one to head the field home. She missed out on her hat-trick after victories over five furlongs and 1100M when finishing fifth last time out when stepping up to seven furlongs, two and a half lengths adrift of the winner. She was however held up on the home turn, before finishing off her race well. The filly jumps from a wide draw ten, but she seems likely to prefer dropping back to what appears to be a more suitable trip.
LADY WARDELL was returning from a 21-week break and raced just behind the leaders when finishing second in her latest outing over 1100M, just a head behind the winner. From her kinder draw five, she will be looking to go one better today.
CABSAV is another who missed out on a hat-trick after victories over 1100M and five furlongs when finishing third last time out over 1100M, a half-length behind the winner, but he raced three wide without cover in that event, before finishing well over the latter stages. The gelding will have to overcome a wide gate eleven, but he will be hoping to bounce back to winning ways today.
