UK Racing Best Bets – Saturday 12 October 2019

Neil Morrice walks you through the front runners for Saturday’s York, Chepstow and Newmarket, including the Heritage Handicap and the Race Darley Dewhurst Stakes. 

Emirates Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap)

NOT for the first time Irish trainers look to hold the key to the second leg of the Autumn Double and Willie Mullins fields notable strength in depth with Hollywoodbets ante post favourite at 5-1 BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP set to be partnered by Frankie Dettori.

The Italian has teamed up with Mullins on seven occasions in Britain and Ireland and plundered the Irish St Leger in 2016 on Wicklow Brave and the Lonsdale Cup the previous year on Max Dynamite. Dettori and Max Dynamite then went within an ace of following-up in the Melbourne Cup.

Mullins, who is also represented by GREAT WHITE SHARK and STRATUM, and won the ‘Ces’ with Low Sun last year, said of Buildmeupbuttercu: “On her latest start she almost succeeded in giving Katasa a stone at Leopardstown which was a big run, as the winner went on to win a Group 3 race. She’s been flying at home since then, and I’m delighted with her.”

Buildmeupbuttercu has just a single maiden win to her name on the Flat but was second at Royal Ascot before her excellent effort at Leopardstown.

Of his other hopefuls, the champion NH trainer added: “As we found with Low Sun who was our second string last year stamina is the name of the game in the Cesarewitch. This time we have a good, strong staying team going over there. They appeal as ideal types for the race.

“Great White Shark won a handicap at Galway in July and she is unexposed over staying trips. Stratum was beaten in a hurdle race at Listowel but is in good form.”

Trainer Tony Martin won the race in 2007 with Leg Spinner and this time field the unexposed MR EVEREST, for whom John Egan is in the plate. Mr Everest was unlucky when third to Great White Shark in his latest Flat race and has since shown decent form over hurdles.

Martin said: “John won the November Handicap at Naas on this horse last year, and I think Newmarket will suit him. There’s only one bend and he’s a big horse who will potter away and enjoy himself. He had a good run over hurdles at Listowel and the soft ground at Newmarket should be perfect for him.”

The Cesarewitch remains one of the few major handicaps to elude Sir Mark Prescott, but the master of Heath House has a powerful twin spearhead consisting of TIMOSHENKO and LAND OF OZ.
Timoshenko is chasing a magnificent seven timer while Land Of Oz has notched a mere six victories and gets into the race right at the base of the handicap as number 31 on the card. The last-named horse’s price shortened significantly after his success in the Cesarewitch Trial and he is now an 8-1 chance with Hollywoodbets.

Against him is the statistic that no three-year-old has triumphed since Darley Sun in 2009 but the question remains is Land Of Oz a ‘Prescott Special’ ? He started his winning sequence from a mark of 58 and gets in off a feather weight.

Prescott has saddled 23 runners in the race since 2000 and came closest to winning when Sea Of Heaven finished third in 2016.

DUBAWI FIFTY finished fourth to Withhold in this race two years ago and deserves to land a big staying prize. His big race record reads very well – fourth in last year’s Chester Cup, second in the Ascot Stakes and beaten just a head in the Northumberland Plate.

Although disappointing on his last two starts he’s been freshened up and now is operating from a mark 1lb lower than when he ran at Newcastle. Furthermore he’s won on both the occasions he encountered cut in the ground and if anything the more testing it is, the better it will be for him.

A springer in the market this week has been RANCH HAND. The Andrew Balding-trained three-year-old is a lightly-raced winner of three of his five career starts and after being put up 5lb for his recent Haydock win will compete off a rating of 99. Balding said: “He’s hopefully still improving and he has good form – his only two blips have been in Stakes races. It’s a big step up in trip for him but both his partners stayed well.”

Prediction

1st LAND OF OZ


2nd Dubawi Fifty


3rd Timoshenko


4th Buildmeupbuttercup


5th Ranch Hand

6th Mr Everest


Race Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)

SUCH has been the dominance of PINATUBO in the top juvenile races this summer that the Godolphin-owned colt is going to start at prohibitive odds for a race that traditionally has cast a large bearing on the following year’s 2,000 Guineas.

Run over the final seven furlongs of the Guineas Mile, it’s past winners include suck Titans as Nijinsky, Mill Reef, El Gran Senor and Frankel. It is the most significant British Group 1 for two-year-olds.

PINATUBO, trainer by Charlie Appleby, is a 2-5 shot with Hollywoodbets and rightly so. Since opening his account on his Wolverhampton debut he is unbeaten in five starts and the history book tells us you need to have experience on your side to win a Dewhurst. And furthermore, six of the last nine market leaders have obliged.

What stamped Pinatubo as something out of the ordinary was the way he pulverised his foes in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. The form was held up when the runner-up Armory finished third in a Longchamp Group 1 behind Victor Ludorum.

While it would be stretching things to say the manner of that Curragh triumph reminded one of Frankel, it was the best performance by a juvenile we’ve seen in years.

Coolmore often fields it’s best youngster in this and their decision to supplement WICHITA into the race was wholly predictable. He looked a different horse when spread eagling his field in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over this course and distance and on that evidence is the clear danger to the favourite.

Aidan O’Brien first won the Dewhurst with Rock Of Gibraltar who went on to win the 2,000 Guineas, as did Churchill in 2016.

But adage that when you throw mud at a wall some of it will stick can certainly be aimed at Aidan O’Brien’s fielding of three more of the nine-strong contingent, with YEAR OF THE TIGER hopelessly outclassed.

ARIZONA cannot be written off as easily as he landed the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, but there’s a small matter of him having to find over nine lengths with Pinatubo from the National Stakes.
O’Brien speaks highly of MONARCH OF EGYPT but after being a springer in the market this colt finished last of 8 to Earthlight in the Middle Park Stakes and makes a very quick return to the track.

POSITIVE has been aimed at this since scraping home in Sandown’s Solario Stakes and although no match for Pinatubo at Glorious Goodwood makes some appeal as a value outsider who possibly can finish in the first four.

Prediction

1st PINATUBO


2nd Monarch Of Egypt


3rd Wichita


4th Positive


5th Arizona


Newmarket Undercard Best Bets

Race 1: MILLTOWN STAR (4)
Trainer: Mick Channon  
Jockey: Ronnie Whelan

All weather scorer MILLTOWN STAR has acquitted himself well in much bette4 company, latterly when placing in a similar race to this Class 2 nursery at 5he Cambridgeshire meeting two weeks ago. He was too keen for his own good that day, and did well to finish as close as he did. Given a stronger gallop and with a top Irish jockey booked, he can get into the argument.

Race 2: TRITONIC (6)
Trainer: Alan King 
Jockey: James Doyle 

Hat-trick seeker TRITONIC should love the stiff uphill finish on the Rowley course in this staying test for juveniles. He was purchased to run in juvenile hurdle races but has really made his mark on the level, staying on like a lion to score in a traditionally good race at Newbury last time. He tackles this Group 3 in favour of the Autumn Stakes, but it’s my belief that he could have won either.