Neil Morrice walks you through the front runners for Saturday’s racing at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton, including the feature race analysis for the Badger Beer Silver Trophy Handicap Chase.
Wincanton Feature Race Analysis
Badger Beer Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed)
The talk has been all about PRESENT MAN who bids to complete a historic third triumph in in succession this under Bryony Frost. No horse has achieved it but trainer Paul Nicholls reports his charge to be flying at home, and his supporters will conjure with the fact that for each of his previous wins the gelding had gone into battle with plenty to prove, as seems the case here.
SOUPY SOUPS scored at Perth in September and found the two and threequarter miles an insufficient test when chasing home Mellow Ben at Fontwell. Although operating off a career-high mark, that can be countered by this longer trip. His trainer Neil Mulholland can also look to THE YOUNG MASTER and CAROLE’S DESTRIER to carry the flag and neither can be safely ruled out.
Colin Tizzard looks to have a fine chance of taking the prize back to his local yard with either WHITE MOON or WEST APPROACH. White Moon is the equivalent of a winner without a penalty following his dramatic last fence exit last time, but for which he would have won. It’s galling for connections that he’s gone up 5lb for that, but the rise does not appear insurmountable. Against West Approach is his poor strike-rate but the way he shaped when second at Cheltenham last time suggests he’s been primed for a big run.
The big West Country stables dominate the race and Harry Fry has a strong protagonist in JUST A STING. His forte seems his ability to go well fresh, as he is here, on a right-handed track on decent ground. He had to by-pass the Kim Muir owing to soft ground before being pulled up in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown. However his trainer reports him to have come back stronger both physically and mentally, and if there’s a blot on the handicap he is the one.
The Jonjo O’Neill-trained CLOTH CAP comes here after being balloted out of the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot. Last season he ran a cracker for a raw novice when fourth in the Scottish National, while on his Chepstow return he travelled well for a long way only to blow up. The problem with this horse is his requirement for better ground, and with record rainfall in parts of the country that’s a scenario that seems increasingly unlikely.
LIL ROCKERFELLER finished second in that same Chepstow contest and should be better suited by the easier Wincanton circuit while the giant GIVE ME A COPPER is interesting for Paul Nicholls on his first outing since finishing fourth in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.
Prediction
1st JUST A STING
2nd White Moon
3rd West Approach
4th Give Me A Copper
5th The Young Master
Wincanton Undercard Best Bets
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power
This a hot novices’ hurdle but FIDDLERONTHEROOF jumps off the page as a horse to follow after an eye catching first run back when second to Thyme Hill at Chepstow. He looked all over the winner until gunned down on the run in, making his trainer’s decision to bring him back to the minimum distance a logical step.
Race 4: COMMANCHE RED (1)
Trainer: Chris Gordon
Jockey: Tom Cannon
While not possessing the same hyped status as Reserve Tank and If You Say Run, COMMANCHE RED is the type of under the radar novice that could pull off a shock in this red hot contest. He jumped with aplomb on his debut over fences at Warwick where at the end of the back stretch he briefly seemed in control, only for the smart Nube Negra to take his measure in the straight. The latter has scored subsequently and with improvement on the cards Commanche Red is worth backing.
Aintree Undercard Best Bets
Race 2: MOSSY FEN (1)
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Rated one of the best novices in the yard, MOSSY FEN can preserve his status of being unbeaten every time he’s completed the course, and land a hat-trick. The 4yo could hardly have been more impressive when making a winning return at Worcester where he came home unchallenged and it will take something smart to lower his colours.
Race 6: TOP NOTCH (4)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville
In a campaign restricted to just four outings TOP NOTCH went off the boil when last seen over this course and distance at the Grand National meeting. The 8yo has mixed and matched his races with hurdles and chases and finds this Class 2 hurdle having cut up in his favour. He is a clean winded individual who doesn’t take much getting ready and is revved up for this, with his stable in fine form.
Kelso Best Bets
Race 5: CHARLIE SNOW ANGEL (8)
Trainer: Miss S Forster
Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
The consistent CHARLIE SNOW ANGEL gained his only success last season over today’s course and distance and went on to post a series of near misses, including when proving a costly favourite at Perth on his final start. Although 1lb wrong in the weights he nevertheless looks a well handicapped horse and should not lack for fitness on his first outing since May.
