Australian racing tips – Monday 12 August 2024 – Muswellbrook

Race 4

HERE COMES HOGAN has finished second in his last two runs since returning from a 25-week rest, the latest over 1000M, beaten just a short-head, this despite jumping awkwardly and bumping another runner, as well as having to switch out at the 200M mark to get a clear run, before just failing to snare the winner in the shadow of the post. He gets gate five and will be hoping to go one better here and is made the best bet on the day’s card.

VIACONI has cracked pole position and although recorded as finishing ninth last time out over 1100M, he was just three lengths behind the winner, but it should be noted that he had to be eased off the heels of another runner at the 500M pole and was also reported to have been cut into on his off-hind leg. That was also at a stronger centre and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. The gelding could prove to be the biggest danger to the top pick.

SHERIFF’S STAR finished third on debut over 1200M, 2.7L behind the winner. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected and jumping from a handy draw three, the colt should be involved in the finish. There are two unraced runners in the field, so keep an eye on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether either of the connection believes that they can win first time out. Any betting support for either, or both, should be respected.

Race 5

CHRISTA has won two of his first four starts and finished third last time out over 1400M, 2.8L back from the winner, when returning from a 21-week rest. She raced four wide throughout in that event, but stayed on well over the closing stages and the form of that race has been franked. She is drawn the widest of them all in gate eleven, but she should be doing her best work late.

OAKFIELD MAMSELLE in turn has won two of her last three outings and finished second in the other, the latest victory coming last time out over 1600M by a length. She returns from a 31-week break, but has had the benefit of two barrier trials and from her useful draw two, she should be right up there when they hit the line.

HULU followed up her penultimate run victory over 1410M with a second-place finish next time out over 1280M, one and a half lengths back from the winner, when having her first run for her new trainer. She battled all the way down to the wire that day and from a cosy draw four, she should be included in all bets.

Race 6

A 3-year-old and a 4-year-old filly could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but the day’s value bet, DRAVID is taken to lead the field home. She has only had two runs to date, finishing fifth on debut over 900M and then showing the expected improvement to win next time out over 1000M by a half-length. She showed plenty of toe that day and whilst taking on stronger here, she will have 1.5kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and from gate seven, she could prove hard to reel in over the latter stages.

NOT WRITTEN OFF had solid form prior to finishing a disappointing eighth last time out over 1000M, 6.2L off the victor. She tried to go from jump to wire that day, but was hampered at the 100M mark and was found to be lame after that race, so that effort is best ignored. She returns from a 33-week spell and now has her first run for her new trainer, but has had two barrier trials, winning the first and finishing third in the latest. If fully settled into her new surroundings, she should give a good account of herself here.

YOU HAVE TO GO won over 1000M three runs back, finished fourth in his penultimate start over 1200M and then sixth in his latest outing over 1200M, 2.2L behind the winner and has had two subsequent barrier trials, finished second in the first and third in the latest. The gelding faces a wide draw twelve, but he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners over the latter part of the race.

Race 7

LAST FRONTIER goes for his hat-trick after two victories over 1200M, albeit the latest by just a short-head. He lost a length at the start that day, but finished strongly to win going away. The gelding does return from a 22-week rest, but has had two barrier trials, finishing third in the latest to showcase his well-being. He has pulled a useful draw three and the trio is very much on the cards.

OUTISHKA is a 5-year-old mare taking on males, but she had her consistency rewarded with a 0.8L victory last time out over 900M. She hit the front at the 150M mark and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. The mare jumps from one gate outside the top pick and will be having her peak run after returning from a 14-week rest. In addition, she will have 2kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice.

CUSTO was having his first run for his new trainer and returning from a 21-week break when finishing second last time out over 1020M, just under a half-length behind the winner. He tried to go from gun to tape that day and from his wide draw fourteen, he is likely to attempt similar frontrunning tactics today and should not be easily overlooked.