Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Thursday’s racing coming your way from Newcastle on 11 August.
Best Bet: DIAMOND DIESEL (Race 8)
Value Bet: ROCKBARTON RUBY (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8).
A 5yr old mare and a 4yr old filly could fight out the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but JUST LIKE LISA gets the nod to lead the pack home. Her four runs prior to winning her maiden race last time out over 1100M by 1.3L had yielded two second and two third place finishes, so the victory was well deserved. She sat just behind the leaders that day and then kicked clear at the 350M mark to win going away. She is drawn wide in gate twelve, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
PHAROAH’S REIGN had her consistency rewarded with a one length victory last time out over 1700M. She raced up with the leaders that day and then powered home to claim her maiden win. She gets a wideish gate seven and takes on stronger here, but she is likely to turn in another honest performance today.
GLOBAL ENCOUNTER followed up his penultimate run victory over seven furlongs with a second place finish next time out over the same journey, 2.3L behind the winner. He is drawn one outside the latter, but on the plus side, he will get 1.5kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice and will be having his peak outing after returning from a 15 week rest.
ROCKBARTON RUBY won his maiden race last time out over 1300M by one and a half lengths despite being hampered at the 400M mark and the form of that race has been franked. The gelding has pulled a wideish draw eight, but could give trainer David Atkins the first two legs of the day’s Jackpot and as such, is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
Although ENJOLRAS is recorded as finishing seventh last time out over 1300M, he was just four lengths off the winner, this after coming four wide into the home stretch. He is drawn one outside the top choice and has his peak run after returning from a 28 week absence. In addition, he gets a set of blinkers re-fitted and if this move has the desired effect, he should be a big runner here.
HIGHLY AMBITIOUS on the other hand has cracked pole position. She is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys and had to be steadied at the 100M mark when finishing a 2.8L eighth last time out over six furlongs and should have finished closer to the winner as a result. She should give the males a good run for their money.
There are six unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners THRILL OF BRAZIL may prove to be the best. She is a 4yr old filly taking on boys, but she finished third on debut over six furlongs and then second last time out over 1100M, four lengths back from the winner. It should however be noted that she jumped awkwardly that day and then came four wide into the home straight which did not help her cause. From draw five, she looks to be the one to side with here.
SHALATIN was a little disappointing in finishing sixth last time out when stepping up to seven furlongs, eight lengths adrift off the winner, but he overraced in the middle stages that day and had nothing to come over the closing stages. He returns from an 18 week rest, but has had two barrier trials and should do better here returning to what appears to be a more suitable distance.
SEIRYU is a 3yr old filly who has only had the two runs to date, finishing tenth in the latest over six furlongs, 11.2L behind the winner, but she had nothing go her way that day, being slow away, hanging out in the home straight, before being hampered at the 150M mark, so that effort is best ignored. She returns from a longer 18 week rest, but has had two barrier trials, winning both. She will have to overcome a wide draw fifteen, but she should be doing her best work late.
The day’s best bet DIAMOND DIESEL finished seventh over six furlongs when making his debut in Hong Kong and then won his fist start in Australia over 1100M by 1.8L, when returning from a lengthy 57 week absence. That effort was made more encouraging by the fact that he was bumped at the start and then crowded shortly thereafter, before coming five wide into the home straight and finishing off his race well. He jumps from a useful gate two and will have 1.5kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice.
RESILIENT STAR has finished closer to the winner in each of his last four runs, the latest when fourth over 1100M, 2.3L adrift of the victor when returning from a 23 week break, notwithstanding being hampered at the 800M pole and coming four wide into the home straight. He gets a cozy gate four and will have the services of a 2kg claiming apprentice and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.
ABUELA is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she won her penultimate start over six furlongs and then finished sixth over the same sprint trip last time out, 2.7L back from the winner. She was reported to have bled that day and returns here after a 24 week break, but has had the one barrier trial to showcase her well-being. She has a wideish gate eight, but will have ex-SA jockey Glyn Schofield in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.