Australian racing tips – Thursday 19 September 2024 – Kembla Grange

Race 4

ADMITTED has only had two runs to date, winning on debut over 1000M and then showing plenty of toe to finish seventh next time out over the same sprint trip, just under six and a half lengths behind the winner, but that was in a Group 3 event, which may have been too strong, too quickly and he was immediately rested for 45 weeks. He returns here after having had two barrier trials, winning the first and finishing third in the latest. The gelding has a wideish draw seven, but gets the services of non-claiming apprentice, Zac Lloyd, son of ex-SA champion jockey, Jeff Lloyd to aid his cause.

A 6-year-old and a 5-year-old mare could chase him home, with the slight preference going to FUMIKO who has finished third in her last two outings, the latest over 1200M, four and a half lengths behind the winner, but she was bumped shortly after the start that day. She does return from a shorter 22-week spell without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so her fitness will have to be taken on trust, and she will also be having her first run for her new trainer, but from a handy draw three and if fully settled into her new surroundings, she should give a good account of herself here.

NOSTALGIA has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three starts, the latest when fifth over 1200M, just over four lengths behind the victor, but she overraced the entire way in that event and came three wide into the home straight. She will also be having her first start since a 59-week spell and the fact that her connections have brought her back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that she still has something more to offer them. From one gate outside the latter, she should be included in all bets.

Race 5

There are three unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connections believe that they can win first-time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, IMPERIAL STATE may well prove to be the best. He has cracked pole position and finished fourth on debut over 1200M and followed that up with a sixth-place finish next time over the same trip, just over four and a half lengths back from the winner, but he was bumped at the start on that occasion, before staying on well over the closing stages. The colt would have come on further with that run under his belt and could win at the third time of asking.

A 3-year-old and a 4-year-old filly could be his biggest threat, but JUST FEELIN’ LUCKY could complete the exacta. She has also only had then two runs, finishing fifth first time out over 1200M and then sixth next time out over 1400M, but she was bumped at the 300M mark and hung in all the way down the home straight that day, so she had her excuses. The filly resumes after an 18-week rest, but has had two barrier trials, finishing second in the first and fourth in the latest. She faces a wideish gate eight, but nevertheless, she should be right up there when they hit the line.

BE QUIET jumped awkwardly, but recovered quickly to take up the lead, only to be run out of it late. She will have to negotiate a wide draw ten, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.

Race 6

The day’s value bet, GREAT WHITE SHARK put his disappointing penultimate start over 1300M behind him when finishing fifth next time out over 1400M, just 1.2L back from the winner, when returning from a 13-week rest, but he was slow away that day and then did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight. The colt jumps from gate seven and may prove too good in this line-up.

NOVEMBER AIR is a 3-year-old filly taking on the boys, but she has consistent formlines to her name, finishing third last time out over 1300M, just under a length and a half off the winner. The form of that race has stood up well with four runners out of that contest subsequently winning and although drawn wide in gate ten, she should turn in another honest performance.

BLACKLIST was checked at the 900M mark and came four wide into the home stretch when ending up in seventh spot last time out over 1200M, six and a half lengths adrift of the winner, but the form of that race has been franked. She has pulled a useful draw two and should not be easily overlooked. There is an unraced runner in the field, so as with the previous race, the same comment with respect to keeping an eye on the betting moves applies here as well.

Race 7

COLOURS OF AUTUMN is a 4-year-old filly taking on males, but she had her consistency rewarded when putting 3.3L between herself and the opposition to win her last start over 1300M. She struck the front at the 200M pole in that event to win going away. The filly will be having her peak run after returning from a 19-week break and jumps from gate six and will also have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and could prove hard to topple.

ETCHED IN TIME goes for his hat-trick after victories over 1600M and the latest over 1300M by a length, when returning from a 22-week spell. The gelding will have to deal with a wide draw twelve, but he is a speedy sort who should be able to work his way across without using up too much gas and he could be the biggest threat to the top pick.

LAUREL HILL is a 5-year-old mare who followed up her penultimate run victory over 1400M with a second-place finish next time out over the same journey, 0.8L back from the winner, but she raced three wide that day. The mare is drawn one outside the latter, but she is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners over the latter part of the race. She will have ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.