Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Thursday’s racing coming your way from Kembla Grange on 29 February 2024.
Best Bet: STRAIT ACER (Race 7)
Value Bet: O’TYCOON (Race 5)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
5 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
10 | 5 |
| 4 |
Cost: R54.00
Race 5
The day’s value bet, O’TYCOON had his consistency rewarded with a victory last time out over 1100M, albeit by just a short-head. He finished strongly that day and despite shifting in over the closing stages, he got up in the shadow of the post for a well-timed win. He has pulled draw seven and will be having his peak run after returning from a 22-week break and will also have 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice.
Two 4-year-old fillies could chase him home, with the slight preference going to GIVE ME JOY who missed out on her hat-trick after two victories over 1300M, when finishing ninth last time out when stepping up to 1500M, just under three and a half lengths behind the winner. She showed plenty of toe that day but did not quite see it out, suggesting that the drop-in trip here would be to her liking. From a handy draw three and with 3kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
ROYAL INVADER is seldom far off the action, finishing fourth last time out over six furlongs, 1.3L back from the winner. She tried to go from jump to wire that day and from draw five, she is likely to attempt similar frontrunning tactics today. She is another that gets 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice.
Race 6
MARCHESI was returning from a 14-week rest when finishing third last time out over 1100M, three and a half lengths back from the winner, but he had nothing go his way that day. He jumped awkwardly bumping another runner, clipped the heels of another runner at the 900M mark and then came the widest of them all into the home straight and was also reported to have lost a near-hind shoe in running. The gelding has a wideish gate eight but nevertheless looks to be the one to side with here.
WEMBANYAMA lost two lengths at the start and hung out in the middle stages when finishing seventh on debut over seven furlongs, six lengths adrift of the victor and was immediately rested for 40 weeks. He returns here after having had three barrier trials, winning the last two and whilst drawn wide in gate eleven, the fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them.
SUSPECT finished second in his latest outing over 1100M, four lengths off the winner when returning from a 22-week spell and having his first run for his new trainer. He would have come on further with that run under his belt and should be included in all bets. There is an unraced runner in the field, so keep an eye on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether his connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for him should be respected.
Race 7
STRAIT ACER was returning from a 13-week rest and was bumped shortly after the start when finishing fifth last time out over six furlongs, 3.8L behind the winner, but that was in a Group 2 event, and he was making good late progress over the latter stages. The gelding will have to negotiate a wide draw ten, but on that last effort, he should enjoy the extra ground on offer here and is made the best bet on the day’s card.
AUSBRED FLIRT is a 5-year-old mare taking on males, but she had solid form prior to finishing twelfth last time out over a mile, twelve and a half lengths back from the winner, but that was in a Group 1 race. She returns from a 16-week rest but has had two barrier trials, winning the latest. The mare gets a kinder draw three and could be the biggest danger to the top pick.
TAVS has won two of his last three starts, the latest when putting three lengths between himself and the opposition and the form of that race has stood up well with three runners out of that contest subsequently winning. The gelding jumps from gate six and should be involved in the finish.
Race 8
IRONTON won first time out over six furlongs after striking the front at the 300M mark and then holding off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire to win a short-head and the form of that race has been franked. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected and from draw six, he could provide the training partnership of M, W & J Hawkes with their second winner in the day’s Jackpot, should the top choice win the second leg.
SIDE SHOW has cracked pole position and had finished third twice prior to winning his maiden race last time out over seven furlongs by two and a half lengths, this despite jumping awkwardly and bumping another runner and shifting in over the final 250M. The gelding takes on stronger here, but he may well be up to the task at hand.
Although SATNESS is recorded as finishing eighth last time out over a mile, he was just 2,2L behind the winner. He raced up with the speed in that contest, kicking clear at the 300M pole, only to be reeled in over the closing stages. The gelding has a cosy draw three and could complete the trifecta.
