Australian racing tips – Wednesday 31 July 2024 – Warwick Farm

Race 5

This looks to be a tricky race to start the day’s Jackpot with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. The tentative top pick goes to GOLDEN PIERRO who followed up his penultimate run victory over 2000M with a fifth-place finish next time out over 2100M, just over four and a half lengths back from the winner, when trying to go from jump to wire. He gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, he should be a big runner here, starting from a handy draw two, as he is likely to attempt similar frontrunning tactics today and could prove hard to peg back over the closing stages.

He renews her rivalry with WHETU who won over 2000M three runs back, finished tenth in his penultimate start over 1850M and then second in his latest outing, the 2100M race mentioned above, just a short-head behind the winner. The former is 1kg better off than the latter on today’s weights, which would not normally be enough to reverse that result, but WHETU is drawn wide in gate nine and may give the top pick too much start. Either way, there should not be too much separating the pair when they reach the line.

I AM THE EMPIRE overraced in the middle stages when finishing fourth last time out over 2100M, four lengths adrift of the winner, but the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He gets draw six and should not be easily overlooked.

Race 6

SAILOR did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight, only seeing daylight at the 300M mark before finishing well to end up in fourth spot last time out over 1600M, just under three and a half lengths behind the winner. He has a useful draw four and with 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice and better luck in running, he looks to be the one to side with here.

INFLUENTIAL jumped awkwardly, overraced in the early stages and then came five wide into the home straight when finishing a disappointing seventh last time out over 1500M, 21.7L adrift of the victor, but that was in very heavy going which was not to his liking. The gelding has had two subsequent barrier trials, finishing second in the latest and from gate seven, he should be right up there when they hit the wire.

PRESSER has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three starts, the latest when sixth over 1600M, 3.8L behind the winner, but he raced three wide throughout that day, was crowded at the 600M mark, before coming four wide into the home stretch and the form of that race has been franked. The gelding will have 3kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice and from gate five, he should be included in all bets.

Race 7

The day’s value bet, THE REPLICANT is seldom far off the action, finishing fourth last time out over 1300M, just under three lengths back from the winner, but he was bumped at the start in that event and raced three wide without cover, so he had his excuses. The gelding is drawn wideish in gate seven, but he should turn in another honest performance here.

NIGHTINGALE is a 3-year-old filly taking on the boys, but she has won two of her last three outings, the latest over 1100M, albeit by just a head. She was returning from a 13-week rest that day and raced wide throughout, so that effort was encouraging. From her kinder draw two, she could complete the exacta.

FLYING DESTINY has consistent formlines to his name and was bumped at the start and came three wide into the home stretch when ending up in second spot last time out over 1200M, two and a half lengths back from the winner. The gelding has pulled gate eight and will be hoping to chalk up his fourth career victory.

Race 8

LOST is a 3yr old filly taking on males, but followed up her penultimate start victory over 1200M with a ninth place finish next time out over 1100M, just over thirteen lengths behind the winner, but she overraced in the first half of the race and was reported to have bled, so was suspended for the mandatory three months. She returns here after having had two barrier trials, finishing second in the first and fourth in the latest and whilst drawn the widest of them all in gate eleven, the engaging of champion jockey James McDonald catches the eye, and she is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.

KIRIBATI on the other hand has cracked pole position and goes for his hat-trick after two victories over 1000M, the latest by 1.8L. He showed plenty of toe on that occasion and will be having his peak run after returning from a 20-week break. In addition, he will have 3kgs taken off his back for the services of his claiming apprentice and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.

OUTISHKA is a 4-year-old filly who had her consistency rewarded with a 0.8Lvictory last time out over 1000M, this after striking the front at the 150M mark and then holding off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. She will have to deal with a wide gate nine, but on the plus side she will have 3kg removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice and should be involved in the finish.