Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips for Thursday’s Australian racing from Bendigo, Belmont Park, and Warwick Farm.
Echuca
Best Bet: EMERALD CROWN (Race 8)
Value Bet: SHADOW GODDESS (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8) – Cost: R90.00
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11 |
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13 |
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Race 5
REGGAE ROC has his hat-trick attempt here after winning his last start over this distance. He hit the front at the 100M mark and then stayed on strongly to keep all challengers at bay. From draw two, he looks to be the one to side with here. JENKINS is drawn one outside the top choice and made good late progress to finish fourth last time out over the mile. He should keep the former honest. NO NEW TRICKS won his last start over this trip by a head. That was on the synthetic track, but he has posted solid form on the grass, so the switch the surface should not be an issue. He will have to negotiate a wide draw of 10, but nevertheless should still be involved in the finish.
Race 6
This looks to be a tricky race and some caution is advised. MR MISCHIEF battled all the way down to the wire before finishing third last time out over twelve furlongs, just under three lengths off the winner. He faces a wide draw of 10, but should make his presence felt here. GASWORX tried to go from jump to wire when improving to end up in fifth place in his last outing over nine furlongs. He jumps from a kinder gate five and if equally as effective over the extra ground, he should challenge the former for top spot. ETNA showed marked improvement is his last start over ten furlongs and gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time. If these have the desired effect, he should be respected in this line-up. PEACE BROTHER finished third last time out over ten furlongs and would have a chance here on that performance. His poor penultimate effort should be totally ignored as he hung badly from the start and never really got into the race.
Race 7
SHADOW GODDESS has only had the two runs to date, winning on debut over six furlongs and then finishing fourth in his next outing over 1300M. He was rested for 13 weeks after that run and returns here without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust. He drops back to the six furlongs and despite having a wideish draw of nine, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s program. TOFFEE DOLL is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys. She has her first run after a 24-week break and has also not had a barrier trial, but this is her first run for her new trainer and if fully settled into her new surroundings, she should be right up there in the mix. ENCIRCLE is a 5yr old mare who followed up her penultimate run victory over 1100M with a second-place finish next time out over six furlongs, just a head behind the victor. She will have to overcome a wide draw of eleven, but she should be doing her best work late.
Race 8
EMERALD CROWN is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she had her consistency rewarded with her maiden win by nearly two lengths last time out over seven furlongs. She set the pace that day and from gate five she is likely to attempt the same tactics here. She also has her peak run and may prove difficult to reel in over the closing stages of the contest. As such, she is made the best bet for the meeting. FAST PLAN is seldom far off the action and ended up in third place in his last outing over seven furlongs, 1.7L off the winner. He was making good late progress that day and with the seven late scratchings in the race, he will come into gate nine. PESKIJEN will also benefit from the scratchings and move into gate twelve. She is a 3yr old filly who won by nearly one length on debut over six furlongs and could be almost anything. Any betting support for her should be respected.
Townsville
Best Bet: LIGHTHORSE LAD (Race 6)
Value Bet: SYLVESTER (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8) – Cost: R90.00
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15 |
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Race 5
With the two late scratchings, a small field of seven runners go to the post here and the consistent V J DAY may prove to be the one that they all have to beat. He followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a second-place finish over this c&d, just 1.3L behind the winner next time out. He was only run out of it late that day and from a handy gate three, he could chalk up this fifth career win. BULLION WOLF made good late progress to end up in third place last time out over this distance. He has cracked pole position and could be the biggest danger to the top choice. LAST CHANCE won his penultimate start over seven furlongs and then finished fourth in his next outing over 1300M, despite racing wide and taking a bump ay the 800M mark. He is now drawn in gate five and should be involved in the finish today.
Race 6
LIGHTHORSE LAD missed out on his hat-trick last time out when fourth over six furlongs, just over a length behind the winner. He looked a possible winner before being chased down close to home. He has a wide draw of eleven to negotiate, but nevertheless, he is taken to be the best bet on today’s card. PANTONE had finished second in his two runs prior to him winning his maiden race last time out over six furlongs. He has a far kinder draw of three and could prove capable of completing his double here even though he is taking on stronger here. ACADEMY HILL is drawn one inside the latter and is seldom far off the action, finishing third in his last start over seven furlongs. He seems sure to turn in another honest performance today.
Race 7
QUIDNI hit the front at the 200M mark but just could not hold on before finishing second last time out over 1500M, just a head behind the victor. He has a wideish gate nine but should be right up there in the dash down to the wire. MORE GEE won his penultimate start over 1300M and then finished seventh next time out over the same c&d. He has a handy draw four and will have 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice to aid his cause. LEFKAS ISLAND is a 7yr old mare taking on the boys. She drops in trip after finishing seventh in her latest run over nine furlongs, but she did finish third over 1500M in her penultimate outing, so this should not be an issue. She does however face a wide thirteen draw but is likely to be doing her best work late. FORGIATO put nearly four lengths between himself and the opposition when winning his last start over six furlongs. He is drawn in gate seven and should enjoy going over the extra ground.
Race 8
The draws could play a big part in determining the outcome of this race and SYLVESTER may be the biggest benefactor. He is drawn in gate three and has shown marked improvement in his last two outings, the latest when second over this trip, a half-length behind the winner when attempting to go from jump to wire. Given that two of his main rivals have very wide draws to deal with, he is taken to be the value bet on the program. ALGEROBA has gate seventeen, but did lead throughout to win his last start over five furlongs and will more than likely attempt to do the same here. COLD POWER has finished second in his last two runs, beaten only a short-head last time out over this five-furlong trip. He faces draw sixteen, but unlike the latter, he is likely to be dropped out of the race early and should be picking off the frontrunner over the closing stages of the contest.
Kembla Grange
Best Bet: SILENT TRYST (Race 5)
Value Bet: CHALK (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7) – Cost: R54.00
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Race 4
THE GRACES is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys. She has only had the two starts to date, finishing fourth on debut over five furlongs and then, although recorded as finishing ninth next time out over six furlongs, she was only two lengths behind the winner when returning from a 26-week break. She jumps from a handy draw four and could be the best of the raced horses. SAN ANTONIO has his first run since a 19-week rest, but he has had two barrier trials, finishing second in the latest. He is drawn one inside the top choice and did finish fifth on debut over five furlongs. With the natural improvement that can be expected, he could prove a threat to the former. There are three unraced entrants in the field and LONG WEEKEND may be the pick of them. He has had the three barrier trials, winning one and finishing second in the other two. Any betting support for him, or indeed either of the other two debutants should be respected.
Race 5
Three 3yr old fillies could dominate the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but the firm top choice goes to SILENT TRYST who has pulled pole position and who did not have the clearest of passages when finishing second first time out. She did well under the circumstance to end up just a length and a half back from the winner. She would have come on with the run under her belt and is selected to be the best bet of the day. SALATEEN has consistent formlines to her name and finished second in her latest outing over 1300M. She will have to overcome a wide gate ten, but she seems likely to turn in another honest performance today. POINT HOPE finished eighth over six furlongs at this track on debut, 1.7L behind the winner. She would have learned from the experience and with former SA jockey Glyn Schofield in the irons, she will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.
Race 6
PATROLLING hit the front at the 200M mark and then stayed on well to hold off all challengers to win by nearly three lengths on debut over 1100M. The form of that race has been franked and from gate two, the colt could chalk up a quick double here. BETHENCOURT was bumped at the start before recovering well to win by half a length over six furlongs first time out. He was immediately rested for 24 weeks and returns here after having had three barrier trial, winning two of them to prove his well-being. He has the widest draw of them all at gate twelve, but nevertheless, he should be right up there when they hit the line. EXOTIC RUBY is a 5yr old mare taking on males, but she has a far kinder drawn four. She has shown steady improvement in her last two outings, finishing second in the latest over 1300M, one length behind the victor, this despite casting a shoe in the race. From her handy draw four, she should give the boys a good run for their money.
Race 7
CHALK came wide into the straight but then stayed on well to finish fifth last time out over 1300M. He has a wideish draw eight, but with better luck in running today, he could be the one to side with here. TENORINO had his consistency rewarded with a short-head victory last time out over a mile. He has a wide draw of thirteen to negotiate, but he will most likely be dropped out of the race early on and the start picking off the frontrunner over the closing stages of the contest. ESTEEM SPIRIT finished third in his last outing over seven furlongs, just a neck behind the winner, despite not getting the clearest of passages in the home straight. He has an even wider draw of fifteen, but on the plus side, he will have 3kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice and should be included in all bets.
