Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Chiefs failed to capitalise on the absence of the Brumbies during last week’s action, suffering a tragic 17-18 loss to the Crusaders in Hamilton, leaving them unchanged in third as the Sharks continue to strengthen their grip on pole with a six point lead as we head into Round 11. We have three fewer unpredictable entities to factor in this week as the Crusaders, Lions and Rebels have a week off, but the upcoming fixtures seem pretty evenly weighted, and so it could prove a tricky week to turn a profit nonetheless.
Blues vs Waratahs | Friday 25 April | Eden Park | 07:35
The Waratahs kick off Round Eleven’s proceedings with a clash against the blundering Blues in Auckland.
To Win (80mins)
Blues 11/10
Waratahs 15/20
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Blues (+1.5) 9/10
Waratahs (-1.5) 9/10
The Blues have battled with consistency this season, and a few experimental picks, such as Benji Marshall’s conversion from Rugby League, never quite paid off. Currently in eleventh spot on the log, with a paltry three victories from their eight clashes so far this season, a home loss this weekend could be the final nail in the coffin for the Blues. Coach Sir John Kirwan has made four changes to the side that went down 39-20 to the Hurricanes last week with Ma’a Nonu, Frank Halai and Simon Hickey coming into the backline, while upfront Peter Saili starts at eight ahead of Steven Luatua. The Waratahs are closing in on the Aussie Conference leading Brumbies, trailing by just a point as they head over to New Zealand this week. Coach Michael Cheika retains the side that that took down the Bulls last week, a game that produced the fastest Super Rugby try of the season, with Israel Folau crossing the line just 28 seconds into the game.
VERDICT: Waratahs (-1.5) 9/10
The Blues need the win more, but the Waratahs are in far better shape at the moment. The visitors should pick up their first victory in Auckland since 2009.
Brumbies vs Chiefs | Friday 25 April | Canberra Stadium | 09:40
A remake of last year’s final, the Aussie conference leaders take on the Kiwi conference leaders in the Australian capital this Friday.
To Win (80mins)
Brumbies 13/20
Chiefs 27/20
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Brumbies (-2.5) 9/10
Chiefs (+2.5) 9/10
The Brumbies have made two changes to their side as they return from their week off, with Pat McCabe dropping to the bench to make way for the evasive Christian Lealiifano. On the bench, Tom McVerry dons the Brumbies jersey for the first time having only recently joined following the loss of David Pocock for the rest of the season. The Chiefs limp into Canberra after falling just short against the Crusaders last week in what was a gruelling battle for Kiwi supremacy. Coach Dave Rennie has rung in the changes this week, the run on side seeing six in total for the Anzac day fixture, with a further four made to the bench.
VERDICT: Brumbies (-2.5) 9/10
The Chiefs remain a dangerous side in the competition, but will be feeling the after-effects of that telling clash against the Crusaders last week, so I back the Brumbies to take their chances in Canberra against their unsettled visitors.
Sharks vs Highlanders | Friday 25 April | Kings Park | 19:10
The table-topping Sharks run out in Durban against the Highlanders this week in their last home game before they embark on a four week away tour.
To Win (80mins)
Sharks 1/5
Highlanders 4/1
Draw 30/1
Handicaps
Sharks (-11.5) 9/10
Highlanders (+11.5) 9/10
The Sharks have done tremendously well in their first season under Jake White and will be determined to clinch another home victory this week to help alleviate some of the pressure to win on the road. White has named three changes to his side that took a scrappy win over the Cheetahs last week. With Tonderai Chavhanga and Odwa Ndungane out with injury, JP Pietersen, S’bura Sithole and Paul Jordaan come into the starting XV, hardly hampering their abilities on attack. Keegan Daniel picks up his 100th Super Rugby cap this week. The Highlanders head into Durban fresh from their week off in Round 10, and know a victory would go a long way in securing them a top six finish this season. Currently eighth on the log, but having only played seven games so far this season, the visitors are a far bigger threat than they were last season, where they finished in fourteenth with just three wins from the season. Coach Jamie Joseph has retained an unbeaten backline but has made a few changes up front, with Jarrad Hoeata replacing the injured Brad Thorn in the second row, and Nasi Manu reclaiming his spot at the back of the scrum shifting Elliot Dixon to the flank.
VERDICT: Sharks (-11.5) 9/10
The Sharks will be out in front of their vocal Kings Park horde for the last time before they set off on their tour of the Antipodes and won’t want to disappoint. Plus they receive the added boost on attack with the return of game-changers Pietersen and Jordaan, something they missed against the Cheetahs last week.
Hurricanes vs Reds | Saturday 26 April | Westpac Stadium | 09:35
The Reds had a week off to think about their unexpected loss to the Force in Round 9, but will have a tough time over in Wellington as the Hurricanes eye a move into the top six.
To Win (80mins)
Hurricanes 7/20
Reds 23/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Hurricanes (-6.5) 9/10
Reds (+6.5) 9/10
Hurricanes coach Mark Hammett has made one change to the starting XV that took down the Blues, with Ben Franks returning from injury to replace Reggie Goodes in the front row. Andre Taylor claims his 50th cap for the club this week when they run out in their limited edition poppy-embroidered jersey for their Anzac clash, which are to be auctioned off to raise funds for the Returned Services Association. Reds captain James Horwill reaches his one hundred cap milestone this weekend after nine seasons with the Queensland outfit. Ben Daley returns from injury to start, and Saia Fainga’a takes over from James Hansen in a new look front row, while in the backline Mike Harris comes in at centre and Jamie-Jerry Taulagi starts on the wing.
VERDICT: Hurricanes (-6.5) 9/10
The ‘Canes are building some good momentum at the moment and have an impressive home record against the Queenslanders, last going down in Wellington all the way back in 1998. They should manage the handicap nicely.
Force vs Bulls | Saturday 26 April | NIB Stadium | 11:40
The Force had their uncanny winning streak brought to an unceremonious end last week, but will be hoping to get their logic-defying season back on track by ensuring the Bulls head home winless from their gruelling overseas stint.
To Win (80mins)
Force 15/20
Bulls 12/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Force (-1.5) 9/10
Bulls (+1.5) 9/10
Despite their loss in Round 10 the Force remain in the top six, but a loss at the ‘Force Field’ this week could signal the beginning of a steady end for the over-reaching Aussie side. Sam Wykes and Jayden Hayward return to the starting lineup this week, with Wilhelm Steenkamp providing second row cover from the bench in his first meeting with his former club. Prop Kieran Longbottom picks up his 50th Super Rugby cap for the club this week. The Bulls have lost all three games on tour thus far, but have picked up a consolation bonus point in each of them, which could make all the difference in the following weeks. Coach Frans Ludeke has named five changes to the side that went down to the Waratahs. In the backline, Francois Hougaard starts at scrumhalf, Jurgen Visser at fullback and Akona Ndungane returns to the wing. Up front, Paul Willemse replaces the suspended Flip van der Merwe and Bongi Mbonambi earns his first start at hooker. Victor Matfield takes over the captaincy in Van der Merwe’s absence.
VERDICT: Bulls 12/10
The Bulls have had a few unlucky breaks on tour, but they remain a fairly decent side. And with the Force’s luck having finally run out last week against the Rebels, the Bulls should be able to pick up a win before returning home.
Cheetahs vs Stormers | Saturday 26 April | Vodacom Park | 17:05
A clash at the bottom of the table takes place in Bloemfontein in what will probably be the hardest game of the weekend to call.
To Win (80mins)
Cheetahs 8/10
Stormers 11/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Cheetahs (-1.5) 9/10
Stormers (+1.5) 9/10
The Cheetahs have suffered a remarkable fall from grace this season, after last year saw them blast their way through the playoffs for the first time ever, only to fall to new lows this year, with only a single victory to their name after nine clashes so far. Coach Naka Drotske has made two changes to the side that went down to the Sharks in Durban last week, with Raymond Rhule taking over from Cornal Hendricks on the wing and Andries Ferreira replacing Lodewyk de Jager in the forwards. The Stormers showed a bit of improvement last weekend in their 18-3 victory over the Lions, but seemed to run out of steam in the second half which could cost them in Bloemfontein this week. Devon Williams earns his starting Super Rugby debut being named on the wing after an impressive impact off the bench last week. Peter Grant shifts back to ten as Jaco Taute takes over at fifteen.
VERDICT: Cheetahs (-1.5) 9/10
Not much in it between these two poorly performing South African sides, so I’ll give the Cheetahs the nod purely based on their home ground advantage.
