PREVIEW: 2024 Super Rugby – Round 6

The shocks just keep coming in Super Rugby with the high-flying Reds going down to former cellar-dwellers, the Force, this past weekend.

While it wasn’t really a shock, the Crusaders’ horror start to the season continued as they were beaten 26-6 by local rivals the Blues. The men from Canterbury have been handed a very tough assignment as they bid to break their 2024 duck as they welcome the Chiefs to OrangeTheory Stadium in Friday’s opener.

Other round 6 clashes that catch the eye are the Highlanders versus Hurricanes clash and the Aussie derby between the Reds and Brumbies in Brisbane.

Friday 29 March

Crusaders 17/10 | Draw 20/1 | Chiefs 5/10 (08:05)

Handicap
Crusaders (+4.5) 9/10 | Chiefs (-4.5) 9/10

In seasons past, this fixture would have the pick of the round’s action but with the Crusaders having endured their worst start to a Super Rugby season with last weekend’s defeat to the Blues being their fifth on the trot and seeing them drop to the foot of the table, it may not be a glamour tie this time around.

While the Crusaders are struggling this term, the Chiefs are having no such issues with the men from Waikato bouncing back from their 25-19 round 3 defeat to the Reds with wins over the Drua (46-29) and the Highlanders (28-21). While the Highlanders did give them a scare in the second stanza, the Chiefs always had them at arm’s length.

In terms of team news for this one, the Chiefs’ brains trust has opted to rest red-hot Damien McKenzie, who is replaced by rookie Josh Jacomb getting his first start in the ten jersey. The young gun will be joined in the backline by All Black’s winger Emoni Narawa, who gets his first start of the campaign having made a cameo appearance off the bench last weekend.

On the Crusaders’ side of things, things have gotten worse for the Canterbury men with David Havilli out injured for this one. His place in the starting line-up is taken by Dallas McLeod, who will link up with Levi Aumua in the centres.

Verdict: Crusaders (+4.5) 9/10

They may be struggling but I think the ‘Saders will make a game of it and keep it within the ‘cap.

Waratahs 2/9 | Draw 25/1 | Rebels 33/10 (10:35)

Handicap
Waratahs (-10.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+10.5) 9/10

We make the trip across the Tasman for our next installment which sees the Waratahs take on the Rebels. And while it’s early doors in the season, this game could be crucial with both sides likely to be gunning for one of the away quarter-final spots come the closing weeks of the regular season.

The hosts have been struggling to get the rub of the green over the past fortnight following up their narrow 10-12 defeat to the Blues with an extra time 39-36 defeat to the Drua. The Waratahs will be ruing their slow start to last weekend’s clash with the Fijians as they finished the game extremely strongly. It’s an area they have struggled with this season and they really need to start putting in 80-minute shifts instead of 20-minute salvos,

The Rebels also head into this one off back-to-back defeats, but while the Waratahs have kept things tight the Rebels have been blown out of the water losing 26-53 to the Reds in round 4 and then 54-28 to the Hurricanes this past weekend. As is evident by a glance at their points differential – they currently sit on -60 – the Rebels have been poor on defence this term and they will need to shore that up as when the Waratahs’ backline clicks, they are capable of running in a load of tries.

Tom Ross, Hugh Sinclair, and Lachlan Swinton come into the ‘Tahs starting line-up after good showings off the bench in Suva, while the Rebels are yet to announce their matchday 23 at the time of writing.

Verdict: Waratahs (-10.5) 9/10

I fancy the ‘Tahs to take the Rebels to task here. The Melbourne outfit is one of the poorest sides defensively in the comp and I fully expect the ‘Tahs backs to have an absolute field day against the,

Saturday 30 March

Drua 2/9 | Draw 25/1 | Force 33/10 (03:05)

Handicap
Drua (-10.5) 9/10 | Force (+10.5) 9/10

We move to Saturday’s action now and the Drua will be looking to make it three wins from three starts on home soil when they take on a Force side that managed to break their duck for the season with an impressive display against the Reds.

The hosts for Saturday’s clash made hard work of what should have been an easy win but got there in the end with a very unorthodox drop goal from Kemu Valetini securing them a win in extra time. While it was a great win for the Fijians, their coaching staff will not be impressed with the fact that they let a 36-24 lead slip in the final quarter of the game to allow the ‘Tahs to force the clash into extra time.

Like their opponents for Saturday, the Force were involved in a high-scoring thriller beating the Reds 40-31 in Perth. The Force started the game like a house on fire and went into the half-time break 28-5 up. Like the Drua, they took the foot off the gas in the second stanza and allowed the Reds back into it. Two second-half tries were enough for them to keep their Queensland rivals at bay though and they held on for a vital win that saw them move off the foot of the table.

In team news, new signing and former Wallabies lock Sam Carter is on the bench for the Force with former Crusaders man Red Princip moving into the starting second row while youngster Lopeti Faifua also makes his way into the starting lock pairing. The Drua have also made a couple of tweaks to their side with Kitione Salawa and Elia Canakaivata getting a start in the back row while Epeli Momo starts on the wing.

Verdict: Drau (-10.5) 9/10

They have been red-hot in Fiji and I think the Force’s win over the Reds has been overstated and not as good as people rate it was. Money on the hosts wining this one by a big margin.

Moana Pasifika 9/1 | Draw 50/1 | Blues 1/25 (05:35)

Handicap
Moana Pasifika (-20.5) 9/10 | Blues (+20.5) 9/10

Moana Pasifika will be looking to bounce back from their heavy 60-21 defeat at the hands of the Brumbies when they take on a Blues outfit that will be looking to move into the top 3 with a big win here.

The host really struggled last weekend against the Brumbies. It was always going to be a tough assignment for them with their set piece one of the least functional in the comp while the Brumbies are traditionally one of the strongest. And so it came to pass as the Brumbies heavyweights tired out their opponents and then the Aussie backs tore things apart in the second stanza. While the set piece will be a worry for Moana’s coaching staff, their kick defence may even be of bigger concern with the Brumbies scoring several of their tries from cross-kicks.

While Moana Pasifka were shipping boatloads of points last weekend, the Blues kept this quiet for the Crusaders, only shipping six points during their 26-6 win over their arch-rivals. While it wasn’t the free-flowing Blues of recent seasons, their new approach under Joe Schmidt is certainly reaping dividends with their forwards dominating the ‘Saders pack and making ground at will through the middle of the park.

Verdict: Blues (-20.5) 9/10

I expect Moana Pasifika to enjoy a good first half here but I reckon the brutality of the Blues will be too much for them and the Kiwis will run away with it in the second stanza.

Highlanders 24/10 | Draw 25/1 | Hurricanes 1/3 (08:05)

Handicap
Highlanders (+8.5) 9/10 | Hurricanes (-8.5) 9/10

The penultimate game of the weekend pits the sixth-placed Highlanders up against the log-leading Hurricanes. The visitors are the only team left in Super Rugby that hasn’t tasted defeat this term but the Highlanders could well change that with this weekend’s hosts desperately unlucky to have won just two of their opening five games.

As I mentioned in last week’s preview, Lady Luck is not smiling on the Highlanders at the minute and it was once again the case last weekend as they went down 28-21 to the Chiefs. This was their third consecutive defeat by fewer than eight points and you have to think they will eventually get the bounce of the ball. They will however need to put in a full 80-minute shift as they have been guilty of playing in fits and starts as was the case last weekend where they allowed the Chiefs to race into a 28-0 lead before firing a shot in anger.

The Hurricanes had a far more straightforward time of it in round 5 as they hammered the Rebels 28-54 in Melbourne. former All Black nine, TJ Perenara, rolled back the years with a blistering display while Jordie Barrett marked his return from suspension with two tries. The two veterans will likely have big roles to play this weekend.

Team news for this one then, Ethan de Groot returns to the Highlanders’ starting front row while Jonah Lowe comes in at outside centre for the suspended Tanielu Tele’a. On the Hurricanes’ side of things, Xavier Numia and Asafo Aumua are elevated to the starting line-up while Cam Roigaard returns to the starting nine berth with TJ Perenara set to bring impact off the bench.

Verdict: Highlanders (+8.5) 9/10

I fancy the hosts to make a real fist of this, and while I reckon the ‘Canes will bag the win, I don’t think it will be by much.

Reds 6/10 | Draw 20/1 | Brumbies 14/10 (10:35)

Handicap
Reds (-3.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (+3.5) 9/10

The round 6 action comes to a close with what should be an absolute belter of an Australian derby with the Reds looking to bounce back from their shock defeat at the hands of the Force when they take on the Brumbies in Brisbane.

After a great start to the season that saw them win three of their opening four fixtures, the Reds hit a blip this past weekend as they were beaten 40-31 by the Western Force. In fairness, the Force were up for the fixture but the Reds were very slow to start. And while they did come into their own in the second stanza, it was too little too late.

The Brumbies had no such issues in round 5 as a second-half blitzkrieg saw them hammer Moana Pasifika 60-21. Their kicking game was on point and they may well look to put the Reds under pressure with a couple of cross kicks this weekend.

Verdict: Reds (-3.5) 9/10

I reckon the Reds will take this one and just clear a rather low handicap.