PREVIEW: Super Rugby 2024 – Round 5

There have been upsets galore thus far in Super Rugby and we could see a couple more this weekend with some intriguing clashes in store including fixtures between the Hurricanes and Reds, Drua and Waratahs as well as the Chiefs and Highlanders.

Hurricanes v Rebels | Friday 22 March | Central Energy Trust Arena | 08:05

Hurricanes 1/14 | Draw 33/1 | Reds 7/1

Handicap
Hurricanes (-19.5) 9/10 | Reds (+19.5) 9/10

We kick things off with an absolute cracker in Wellington as the log-leading Hurricanes take on the second-placed Queensland Reds. Both sides are enjoying brilliant seasons with youth at the core of their early success.

Queensland’s youth brigade were once again on the right side of the score line following up their clutch Round 3 25-19 win over the Chiefs with a more comfortable 26-53 win over the Rebels in Melbourne. Forward dominance was the name of the game during the early salvos of last weekend’s fixture with the Reds’ first five tries scored by the big boys, with the fourth an absolute thing of beauty. The backs then got in on the action in the second stanza scoring two of their three tries. The Reds are really looking a well-balanced side and they may well cause the ‘Canes some problems this weekend.

While the Reds were involved in an open fixture in Round 2, it was attritional for the ‘Canes who ground out a 10-14 win over the struggling Crusaders on the South Island. In slippery conditions, there were plenty of handling errors from both sides but it was the ‘Canes who managed to keep their composure and dot down for two tries – one in the first and one in the second half – while the Crusaders, who had eked into a slender three-point lead with under ten minutes in the game remaining unable to cling onto their lead as the Canes grabbed their second seven pointer two minutes before the final hooter.

Verdict: Reds (+19.5) 9/10

Both sides have played some solid attacking rugby thus far this term and I think this game will have a bunch of tries in it. I think the Reds will keep it in a big handicap as well.

Brumbies v Moana Pasifika | Friday 22 March | GIO Stadium | 10:35

Brumbies 1/7 | Draw 33/1 | Moana Pasifika 9/2

Handicap
Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10 | Moana Pasifika (+14.5) 9/10

Friday’s penultimate fixture pits a much improved Moana Pasifika outfit up against the Brumbies.

The hosts continued their decent start to the campaign as they registered a 21-27 away win over the Highlanders. Having trailed 8-0 during the first quarter of the fixture, the Brumbies moved through the gears just before the half-time break and just after with two well-worked tries that put them right back into the game. 

Unlike their opponents, Moana managed a quick start last weekend scoring the first try of the game and then a late try to go into the break 7-12 to the good against the Force. A try just after the half-time break would extend their lead to 7-19 but they would be pinned back by a rolling maul from the Force that left the score line at 14-19 with over 15 minutes play. They would hold out, however, with a penalty giving them a 14-22 which was their second victory of the season.

Verdict: Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10

The visitors have struggled at set piece time and the Brumbies are one of the stronger set piece sides in the ‘comp. I reckon dominance at the set piece will hand the hosts a comfortable win here.

Fijian Drua v Waratahs | Saturday 23 March | Churchill Park | 03:05

Drua 6/10 | Draw 20/1 | Waratahs 14/10

Handicap
Drua (-3.5) 9/10 | Waratahs (+3.5) 9/10

Saturday’s first fixture should be an absolute cracker with the Drua welcoming the Waratahs to Churchill Park.

The hosts were unable to replicate the feats of the previous weekend as they were brought crashing back down to Earth from their 20-10 Round 3 victory over the Crusaders by a Chiefs team that drilled them 46-29.

While a 17-point loss is never easy to take, there were some positives for Tana Umaga and his coaching team to take from the loss to Waikato’s finest with the Drua looking very slick on attack at times, while they were also the first team to score in the fixture and only trailed their opponents 24-17 at the break. They will, however, need to work on their second stanza efforts and defence which have been two weak areas of their game.

The Waratahs also head into this one off the back of a defeat but theirs was a far more harrowing one as they went down 10-12 to the Blues. In a low-scoring and error-strewn affair, the Blues raced out to a 3-12 lead with only 15 minutes left in the game. The Waratahs would hit back with a try in the 78th minute but this would ultimately prove too little too late.

Verdict: Drua 6/10

While the Waratahs have won all the Super Rugby encounters between the sides, the Drua have claimed a few preseason results over the men from New South Wales. I reckon the Drua will end their barren competitive run against the ‘Tahs this weekend.

Chiefs v Highlanders | Saturday 23 March | FMG Waikato | 05:35

Chiefs 1/8 | Draw 33/1 | Highlanders 5/1

Handicap
Chiefs (-14.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+14.5) 9/10

It’s over to the first of Saturday’s two Kiwi derbies which will see the Chiefs play host to the luckless Highlanders.

Waikato’s finest bounced back from their shock 25-19 Round 3 defeat at the hands of the Reds with a solid 46-29 win over the Drua. Having held a narrow lead at half-time, the Chiefs put their foot down in the second stanza to run out 17-point victors. Shaun Stevenson and Damien McKenzie were at their attacking best this past weekend and will be two men to watch out for again this week. The duo are joined in the matchday 23 by Emoni Narawa, who is back from a six-month layoff and is parked on the Chiefs bench.

Once again, Lady Luck did not smile upon the Highlanders as they suffered their second defeat of the campaign going down 21-27 at home to the Brumbies with a late try from a rolling maul being their undoing. The Highlanders were missing the influential Rhys Patchell for this one and a return to their starting XV is a massive boost heading into Saturday’s derby.

Verdict: Chiefs (-14.5) 9/10

While they are conceding a lot of points at the minute, the Chiefs are also scoring in spates. I reckon they’ll come out on top of a higher scorer by a comfortable margin.

Blues v Crusaders | Saturday 23 March | Eden Park | 08:05

Blues 3/10 | Draw 25/1 | Crusaders 5/2

Handicap
Blues (-8.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (+8.5) 9/10

The penultimate game of the weekend should be another absolute cracker with a Crusaders side with their backs against the wall taking on arch-rivals, the Blues.

The visitors’ woeful run of form continued this past weekend as a late try from the Hurricanes doomed them to yet another defeat. While there are mitigating circumstances for their poor showing in the early salavos of the season – they have used four different fly halves thus far and are under a new coaching regime – it’s simply not good enough for their kings of Super Rugby.

While the Crusaders went zero from four, the Blues registered their third win of the season beating the Waratahs 10-12 in a nervy Round 4 game. The Aucklanders played well and truly within themselves last week but proved they can grind out wins, which is exactly what the Crusaders haven’t been able to do this term.

Verdict: Crusaders (+14.5) 9/10

I reckon this one will be as tight as they come. I can see the Blues just edging it on home soil hence I’m on the Crusaders plus line.

Force v Reds | Saturday 23 March | HBF Park | 10:35

Force 33/10 | Draw 33/1 | Reds 2/9

Handicap
Force (+11.5) 9/10| Reds (-11.5) 9/10

We bring things to a close with two sides who inhabit polar-opposite positions on the ladder as cellar-dwellers, the Western Force, take on the second-placed Queensland Reds.

To say the two sides are experiencing different fortunes during the early salvos of the campaign is a vast understatement with the Force yet to win a game while the Reds have gone three from four with one of those wins coming over the Waikato Chiefs.

The Reds, who registered the aforementioned win over the Chiefs in Round 4, delivered the goods again this past weekend as they claimed a 26-53 win over the Rebels away from home. The Force, on the other hand, went down 14-22 to Moana Pasifika on their own patch.

Verdict: Reds (-11.5) 9/10

I expect this youthful and galvanized Reds team to make short work of an out of sorts Force outfit.