The Super Rugby play-offs kick-off this week with four fascinating ties, with the pick of the action perhaps Friday’s opener in Waikato where the Chiefs host the Reds.
We’ve reached the business end of the Super Rugby season with the quarter-final phase of the tournament getting underway this Friday with a clash between the Chiefs and the Reds.
Saturday sees a triple-feature with the Hurricanes and Rebels squaring off in the day’s opener in Wellington, while the Blues and Drua go head-to-head at Eden Park straight after. The first phase of knock-out action then comes to a close in Canberra where Australia’s top-performing side, the Brumbies, play host to the Highlanders.
Friday 7 June
Chiefs 2/9 | Draw 33/1 | Reds 33/10 (09:05)
Handicap
Chiefs (-10.5) 9/10 | Reds (+10.5) 9/10
The Chiefs head into this one as massive favourites with the bookies but it may not be as clear cut as that as the Reds have been something of a bogey team for them in the recent past with Queensland’s finest winning three of the last five games between the sides.
Both teams enjoyed solid enough run-ins to the quarter-final phase with the visitors for Friday’s encounter winning four of their last five regular season fixtures while the hosts managed three wins from five.
The Reds did fare far better in the final fortnight of the regular season with Les Kiss’ men winning their final two fixtures while their hosts for Saturday lost their last two. The Queenslander’s wins came against local opposition as they hammered the Force 59-13 in Round 14, while a late penalty from Tom Lynagh spared their blushes against the Waratahs in Round 15 after they had let a massive lead slip. Lynagh’s penalty would give them a 26-27 win, however.
Like the Reds, the Chiefs ended their regular season with two derby fixtures but unlike the Reds, they were unable to win either going down 17-20 to the Hurricanes in Round 14 and then 31-17 to the Blues this past weekend.
In team news for Friday’s encounter, neither side has announced their matchday 23 at the time of writing (*article was written on Wednesday 5 June).
As noted at the start of this segment, the Reds do have the recent head-to-head advantage between the sides and while two of those wins did come on home soil, they managed to end their drought in Waikato last year as they beat the Chiefs 22-25 at the FMG.
Verdict: Reds (+10.5) 9/10
Games between these sides tend to be rather tight with the Chiefs winning the regular season clash by just six points while two of their four games before that were settled by three points or fewer. While I fully expect the Chiefs to bag the win here, I reckon it will be by a very narrow margin.
Saturday 8 June
Hurricanes 1/100 | Draw 40/1 | Rebels 14/1 (06:35)
Handicap
Hurricanes (-27.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+27.5) 9/10
It’s over to Wellington for our next fixture which pits the Hurricanes up against the Rebels. This could well be the Rebels Super Rugby swansong as the ARU have opted not to renew their Super Rugby license and the Hurricanes are by far and away the better team. However, the Rebels haven’t really got anything to lose here and a number of their players will be looking to put themselves in the shop window as they hunt contracts at other Super Rugby franchises or abroad.
The ‘Canes ended the regular season at the top of the pops having only suffered two defeats with the first coming at the close of May when they suffered their first defeat of the campaign as they went down to the Brumbies. They then went down to the Blues in early May but finished their normal campaign strongly as they registered three wins on the trot including a 17-20 away win over the Chiefs and a 41-14 win over the Highlanders, which closed out their regular season campaign and saw them claim top spot on the log.
Their opponents for Saturday had a more difficult time of it as they recorded five wins from their 14 fixtures and just scraped a quarter-final berth by finishing eighth the standings, only two points ahead of the ninth-placed Crusaders. They had a terrible run-in to the quarters losing their last six fixtures with last weekend’s 40-19 defeat to the Drua their most recent.
The Rebels have been handed two massive boosts as they look to extend their time in Super Rugby with Carter Gordon and skipper Rob Leota both set to return this weekend. Team news is rather scant on the Hurricanes’ side of things at the moment but it doesn’t look like they have picked up any major injuries headed into this one.
Verdict: Hurricanes (-27.5) 9/10
The Hurricanes have beaten the Rebels by more than 22 points in the last two games that they have squared off against the Melbourne side in Wellington and I’m expecting another comfortable win for them here.
Blues 1/100 | Draw 40/1 | Drua 14/1 (09:05)
Handicap
Blues (-25.5) 9/10 | Drua (+25.5) 9/10
It’s over to the hallowed Eden Park for our next fixture which will see the Drua attempt to go one better than last year and make the semi-finals when they take on the Blues. While the trip from Suva to Auckland isn’t exactly a fool’s errand for the Drua, the odds are certainly stacked against the Fijians here especially considering they did not win a single away game this term while the Blues are yet to be beaten on home soil this season.
Saturday’s hosts had a fantastic regular season winning all but two of their fixtures with the Crusaders (29-27) and the Hurricanes (29-21) the only two sides to register wins over Auckland’s best. They have evolved as a side under Vern Cotter. This evolution was underpinned by their 31-17 win over the Chiefs this past weekend where they ground out a lead in the first half and then moved through the gears in the second.
The Drua, while impressive on home soil in 2024, found the gong on the road rather tough with the vast majority of their defeats in the regular season coming on the road. They did manage to finish the round-robin phase on a high note as they recorded a 40-19 win over the Rebels at Churchill Park.
The Blues have kept the changes to a minimum for this one with Josh Beehre coming in for Sam Darry with the latter missing out through concussion, while Rieko Ioane returns to the centres. The Drua have been even more stingy with the changes, naming same run-on XV that beat the Rebels.
Verdict: Blues (-25.5) 9/10
They have struggled away from home and I can’t see the Drua doing much against this well-drilled Blues outfit.
Brumbies 1/7 | Draw 33/1 | Highlanders 9/2 (11:35)
Handicap
Brumbies (-13.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+13.5) 9/10
The curtain comes down on the quarter-finals at GIO Stadium where the Brumbies will look to elevate their title credentials when they take on the Highlanders. The hosts have enjoyed an impressive campaign and were by far the standout Aussie, finishing the regular season in third place with 12 wins from their 14 outings. And while they did perform a lot better than the Highlanders – the Kiwi side only managed six victories from their 14 fixtures – they will need to still be wary of the men from Otago, who are well capable of springing a surprise here.
The Brumbies’ last defeat came in mid-April and they are currently on a six-game winning streak with their latest victory being last weekend’s 19-24 win over the Force. The score line flattered their opponents somewhat, as the Brumbies conceded two late tries.
The Highlanders themselves have been in decent touch of late winning four of their last six fixtures, although it must be noted that these wins came over the Crusaders, Moana Pasifika, the Drua and the Force. The other two fixtures they played were against quality opposition and they struggled in those going down 47-13 to the Blues and 41-14 to the Hurricanes this past weekend.
Both teams have made changes for this one with the hosts Charlie Cale returning at eight overcoming an injury while Harry Vella replaces the injured Blake Schoupp in the front row. On the Highlanders’ side of things, Cameron Millar comes in at fly-half alongside outside centre Tanielu Tele’a, while Sean Withy and Fabian Holland come into the run-on pack.
Verdict: Highlanders (+13.5) 9/10
They’ve got some key men back and while I can’t see them taking the win, I can see the Highlanders making a real game of it.
