We’re well and truly into the business end of Super Rugby’s round-robin stage with the mad scramble for play-off places heating up. This weekend’s main attraction? A tie between an improving Crusaders and an inconsistent Reds outfit. Darry Worthington previews round 11.
Like the Crusaders, my poor run of form came to an abrupt end last weekend with all my ante-post tips arriving. I must admit, however, my suggestion of a high-scoring clash between the Drua and Moana Pasifika fell flat despite the Drua going in for a try less than five minutes into the fixture.
Again, like the Crusaders who have a tasty-looking clash against the Reds this coming Saturday, I’ll be looking to turn my tipping campaign around with a solid Round 11 showing.
Friday 3 May
Hurricanes 1/16 | Draw 40/1 | Waratahs 15/2 (09:05)
Handicap
Hurricanes (-19.5) 9/10 | Waratahs (+19.5) 9/10
We kick things off in Wellington, where the Hurricanes who were undefeated up until last week, will be looking to bounce back with a big win over the Waratahs. There’s a lot riding on this game for both sides as the hosts are now only a point clear of the Blues at the top of the Super Rugby Pacific log while the visitors are three points adrift of the last quarter-final berth.
As noted above, the Wellington outfit’s eight-game win streak came to an end in Canberra this past weekend with the Brumbies beating them 27-19. A slow start saw the Kiwi franchise head into the break 27-12 down. While they did launch several attacks and pile the pressure on the Brumbies, they couldn’t convert, ending their jaunt to Canberra empty-handed.
The Waratahs also head into Friday’s clash off the back of a 22-38 defeat (against the Chiefs). This was their seventh loss of the campaign and has left them scrambling for points in the final couple of rounds as they bid to make the play-offs. Having started the match well, the ‘Tahs would see their 12-point lead evaporate before half-time as the two sides went into the break locked at 12-12. The Chiefs would then control proceedings in the second stanza with four tries while the Waratahs only managed to register one as they slipped to a 22-38 loss.
In terms of team news for this one, the visitors have been forced into a number of changes due to injuries with Hayden Thompson-Stringer coming into the front row to replace Tom Ross, while Hunter Ward and Fergus Lee-Warner are the other changes to the pack. There are further changes in the Aussie side’s backine with Will Harrison getting a start at fly-half while NRL-bound Mark Nawaqanitawase moves to fullback and Dylan Pietsch takes his place on the wing.
On the Hurricanes’ side of things, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Devan Flanders, Peter Lakai and young gun Kianu Kereru-Symes all come into the starting pack, while changes to the backline see Richard Judd start at nine and Bailyn Sullivan come in on the wing.
Verdict: Hurricanes (-19.5) 9/10
The ‘Canes have some serious firepower on the bench which should cause the ‘Tahs all sorts of problems in the second stanza. Money on the hosts clearing the handicap this Friday.
Rebels 9/2 | Draw 33/1 | Blues 1/7 (11:35)
Handicap
Rebels (+14.5) 9/10 | Blues (-14.5) 9/10
We hop across the Tasman for our next fixture which sees the overachieving Rebels take on a Blues side that is looking to hunt the log-leading ‘Canes down. The hosts currently lie fifth on the table and look primed for a play-off berth, whilst the Blues occupy second.
The hosts for Friday’s encounter had a tough time of it last weekend as they were hammered 39-0 by a desperate Crusaders side. While the Crusaders did play some good rugby, the Rebels were rather meek on attack creating next to no chances. They will need to up their game this weekend as they take on a Blues side that has been miserly on defence all season.
While their opponents head into this one off the back of a heavy defeat, the Blues head to Melbourne having scrapped a 34-41 win against the Reds in the game of Round 10. Having taken a 7-13 lead into the sheds. The Blues would be put under a lot of pressure just after the break with the Reds scoring two quick tries to take the lead on the 50-minute mark.
Despite the Blues scoring next, the Reds would take a 31-20 lead into the final 12 minutes of the fixture. The Blues, under Vern Cotter, are a very determined bunch and three tries – the final of which came in injury time – would see them to a vital victory.
Looking at the team news for this Friday, the Blues have named PJ Sheck in their starting front row while Laghlan McWhannel comes into the second row. All Black Caleb Clarke returns to the left wing and AJ Lam is at inside centre.
At the Rebels, skipper Rob Leota returns from injury on the side of the scrum while Jordan Uelese and Taniela Tupou come into the front row. There are also a couple changes to the Rebels backline with Matt Proctor coming in at 13 while Filipo Daugunu gets a start on the wing.
Verdict: Blues (-14.5) 9/10
While the Rebels have played some good rugby at home this term, I can’t see them offering much resistance against what is a very well-drilled Auckland outfit. Money on the hosts clearing the handicap.
Saturday 4 May
Moana Pasifika 7/10 | Draw 20/1 | Highlanders 12/10 (04:05)
Handicap
Moana Pasifika (-2.5) 9/10| Highlanders (+2.5) 9/10
Our next fixture is a crucial game for both teams concerned with the duo desperate to get in the mix for the play-offs. Moana Pasifika, who currently lie ninth on the standings, will get their first real home game for the year as they welcome the eighth-placed Highlanders to Tonga for Saturday’s encounter.
Both sides were involved in very tight affairs this past weekend with the Highlanders edging the Force 7-6 in the lowest-scoring fixture of the season while Moana Pasifika went down 24-17 to the Drua at Churchill Park.
The Highlanders were far from their best last weekend during their one-pint victory as they failed to create anything apart from Folau Fakatava’s 50th-minute try. In fairness to the team from Dunedin, they did hold strong on defence as they limited the Force to just two penalties.
There were far more tries in the Drua versus Moana Pasifika game, although still not as many as were to be expected especially after the Drua went over for a try inside the first two minutes of the fixture. A further try and a penalty would see Moana go into the break 17 points down but they would hit back with two tries of their own but the Drua managed to bag one between their opponent’s brace which kept Moana Pasifika at arm’s length.
The Highlanders have made just two changes for this one with Daniel Lienert-Brown coming into the front row while Cameron Mitchell comes in at fly-half for Rhys Patchell. On the hosts’ side, there’s a new halfback pairing with Jonathan Taumateine partnering formr Wallaby Christian Lealiifano, while William Havili will don the 15 jersey.
Verdict: Moana Pasifika 7/10
I fancy the hosts chances here. This is an historic day for them and they’ll be looking to make a statement against a hit-and-miss Highlanders outfit.
Crusaders 2/7 | Draw 25/1 | Reds 11/4 (06:35)
Handicap
Crusaders (-9.5) 9/10 | Reds (+9.5) 9/10
The Crusaders will be looking to bag just their third win of the campaign when they take on what could well be a physically and mentally fatigued Reds outfit, who will still be smarting after their heartbreaking loss to the Blues.
The hosts are still in with a sniff of a quarter-final berth having registered a bonus point win over the Rebels last week that has seen them move to within three points of the eighth-placed Highlanders. The Reds have dropped to sixth on the ladder and will need a couple more points to ensure they make the quarters.
While the Rebels were extremely poor against the Crusaders, credit must go to the men from Canterbury who really upped their game for this one. Their set piece fired for most of the fixture and their backs were far more clinical than they had been all year. If they can repeat the dose this weekend, then they could well pick up back-to-back wins for the first time this season.
While the Crusaders will be feeling good after bagging a big win, the Reds will travel to Canterbury wondering how they let a big lead slip in the final 12 minutes against the Blues. There is a silver lining for the men from Queensland, however, as they look to have found a gem of a player in young Tim Ryan, with the youngster bagging a hat-trick and causing the Blues defence all sorts of problems.
The hosts have been handed a big boost headed into this one with Welsh veteran Leigh Halfpenny returning from injury with the veteran moving into the 15 berth. The other big change sees David Havilli start at fly-half – apparently, this was on the order of New Zealand coach Scott Robertson who wants to see his former player have a bash there.
The Reds have made a couple more changes than the Crusaders, with Wallaby flanker Fraiser McReight returning to the side of the scrum, while Peni Ravai comes into the front row in the other change to the forward pack. Like their opponents, the Reds have also made a change at fly-half with Lawson Creighton coming in for the injured Tom Lynagh, while Mac Grealy comes in on the wing.
Verdict: Reds (+9.5) 9/10
While I do feel the Crusaders will win this one, I don’t think it will be by much. Money on the Reds keeping this one within the handicap.
Chiefs 1/50 | Draw 40/1 | Force 12/1 (09:05)
Handicap
Chiefs (-22.5) 9/10 | Force (+22.5) 9/10
We head to Waikato for our penultimate game of the weekend which will see the fourth-placed Chiefs take on the cellar-dwelling Force. The two sides have vastly contrasting assignments for the final few weeks of the regular season with the Chiefs looking to claim home semi-final hosting rights – they currently sit eight points off the second-placed Blues – while the Force are looking to keep their slim hopes of quarter-finals rugby alive.
The two sides had contrasting fortunes in Round 10 with the Chiefs putting in a solid and composed display against the ‘Tahs as they overturned a 12-0 early deficit to run out 22-38 victors in New South Wales, while the Force huffed and puffed their way to a one-point defeat against the Highlanders in one of the worst games of the season.
In team news for this one, the visitors welcome back Jeremy Williams and scrum-half Issak Fines-Leleiwasa. For the Chiefs, there are a couple switches with Naitoa Ah Kuoi getting a start on the flank. while Rameka Poihipi mves from 12 to 10 with Damien McKenzie given the week off.
Verdict: Chiefs (-22.5) 9/10
They may be fielding a somewhat weekend side but I still expect the Chiefs to win this one at a canter.
Brumbies 1/8 | Draw 33/1 | Drua 5/1 (11:35)
Handicap
Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10 | Drua (+14.5) 9/10
The Round 11 action comes to a close at the GIO Stadium where the Brumbies will be looking to build on an eye-catching win over the log-leading Hurricanes when they take on a Drua outfit who are on the hunt for a quarter-finals berth.
Both sides produced very positive results in Round 10 with the Brumbies putting in a polished performance as they became the first side to beat the Hurricanes this season.
The Drua also grabbed a good win last weekend as they beat play-off rivals Moana Pasifika 24-17 at Churchill Park courtesy of a fast start that saw them open the scoring with just over a 90 seconds of the game having passed.
There have been a number of changes from the Brumbies for this one with impressive backrower Charlie Taylor and winger Corey Toole left out. Toole’s place in the side is taken by Ollie Sapsford, who shifts to the left wing with Andy Muirhead taking his vacant right wing berth. The Drua have also made a couple big changes for this one as Tevita Ikanivere returns to the run on hooking berth. He is joined in the pack by locks Mesake Vocevoce and Isoa Nasilasila. In the backline, Michael Naitokani comes into the centres while Junior Ratuva and Selestino Ravutaumada are set to start on the wings.
Verdict: Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10
The Brumbies solid forward pack should cause the Drua all sorts of problems and I reckon they’ll lay the platform for a big win at the GIO.
