There’s now only one Super Rugby quarter-final spot up for grabs with the Drua in the driver’s seat to claim as a win for them over the Rebels at Churchill Park would see them secure eighth. However, any slips from the Fijians and the Crusaders, Moana Pasifika and the Force are all waiting to pounce.
It’s been a bombshell week for Super Rugby Pacific with confirmation that the Rebels will not receive a license from the ARU to compete in next year’s tournament. It’s a rather sad state of affairs for the Melbourne franchise who locked in a quarter-final berth this past weekend despite going down heavily to the Brumbies.
There’s now only one last quarter-final spot up for grabs with the Drua in the driver’s seat to claim as a win for them over the Rebels at Churchill Park would see them secure eighth. However, any slips from the Fijians and the Crusaders, Moana Pasifika and the Force are all waiting to pounce.
On the other end of the table, there’s something of a bun fight for first place with the Blues, Brumbies and Hurricanes all in the mix to finish at the summit of the standings come the close of this round.
For the final time this year, Darry Worthington runs the rule over Super Rugby Pacific round-robin action and gives his verdict on how he thinks each game will play out this weekend.
Friday 31 May
Crusaders 1/100 | Draw 40/1 | Moana Pasifika 14/1 (09:05)
Handicap
Crusaders (-27.5) 9/10 | Moana Pasifika (+27.5) 9/10
It’s a big one first up with both Moana Pasifika and the Crusaders looking to keep their play-off hopes alive as they square off in Canterbury. To qualify for a play-off berth they would need both the Force and Drua to lose their fixtures and while the Force should come unstuck against the Brumbies, the Drua are unlikely to lose against the Rebels at Churchill Park. However, as I noted in the intro, any slip-ups from the Drua and one of these sides will be ready to pounce.
The hosts put in their best shift of the campaign this past weekend keeping their play-off hopes alive with a 29-27 win over arch-rivals and log-leaders, the Blues. They were clinical on the day and really stretched the Blues’ defence, particularly in the second half.
Moana Pasifika also enjoyed a solid Round 14 showing as they beat the Waratahs 27-12. While the Australian team has been pretty poor this term, Moana did illustrate how dangerous they can be with ball in hand scoring four tries. What was slightly disappointing for them, however, was the fact they conceded two late tries that denied them the BP.
Verdict: Crusaders (-27.5) 9/10
They have looked a far better team in recent weeks and I’m backing them to claim a big bonus pint win here and keep their title hopes alive.
Waratahs 11/4 | Draw 25/1 | Reds 2/7 (11:35)
Handicap
Waratahs (+9.5) 9/10 | Reds (-9.5) 9/10
We head across the Tasman in standard Friday tradition for our next fixture which will see the cellar-dwelling Waratahs take on a Reds outfit who have a quarter-final berth sewn up but can’t finish any higher or lower than fifth on the log. The hosts also have little to play for bar pride as they will finish the season as wooden spoonists regardless of their result this Friday.
With little on the line here, both teams have opted to make a slew of changes with the Reds giving Joe Brial and Connor Vest starts in the pack while Lawson Creighton starts at fly-half. On the Waratahs side of things young gun Jack Bowen comes in at fly-half while Paddy Ryan, who has just returned from Japan, comes into the second row.
Both sides into this one off the back of vastly contrasting results with the Reds putting in a solid Round 14 showing as they hammered the Force 59-13, while the Waratahs struggled against Moana Pasifika going down 27-12, with the loss being their ninth of the campaign.
Verdict: Reds (-9.5) 9/10
While they are missing a few regular starters, the Reds have put out a very strong team that I think will get the job done in New South Wales.
Saturday 1 June
Drua 1/6 | Draw 33/1 | Rebels 4/1 (04:05)
Handicap
Drua (-13.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+13.5) 9/10
It’s the big one next up with the Drua looking to secure the last play-off spot by claiming a win over the Rebels. The hosts currently sit two points clear of both the Crusaders and the Force so a win here is all that is required for them. The Rebels will also be keen on bagging a win as a victory coupled with a loss for the Highlanders would see them move up to sixth on the log.
The Drua’s poor away form continued last weekend as they were outclassed by a Highlanders side that beat them 39-3. While there will be worries over their defensive efforts, the main concern will be the manner in which their attack failed to fire.
The Rebels also head into this one off the back of a heavy defeat as they were hammered 53-17 by the local foes the Brumbies. It’s been a tough old week for the Melbourne side who also found out their Super Rugby license would not be renewed for the 2025 season.
Both teams have pretty much gone full strength for this one with both sides still having a lot to play for.
Verdict: Rebels (+13.5) 9/10
I reckon it will be a tight old game with a lot on the line for both sides. Rebels on the plus for me.
Hurricanes 1/33 | Draw 40/1 | Highlanders 10/1 (06:35)
Handicap
Hurricanes (-23.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+23.5) 9/10
Our next Saturday offering is the first Kiwi derby for the day and sees a Hurricanes side looking to close the points differential gap on the log-leading Blues when they take on a Hurricanes side that is looking to sure up sixth spot on the log.
The ‘Canes head into Saturday’s clash off the back of a nervy but impressive away win in Hamilton as they beat the Chiefs 17-20 with a 78th-minute penalty from Brett Cameron. The victory saw them draw level on the points with the Blues on the log, who they now trail by 69 on points differential.
The Highlanders also come into this one off the back of a solid victory although they enjoyed a far easier time of it as they cantered to a 39-3 victory over the Drua.
In terms of team news for this one, the visitors have made a number of changes as they eye the play-off with one of the biggest seeing young gun Finn Hurley get a start at 15. The hosts have also made a few changes with Asafo Aumua returning from injury while Salesi Rayasi gets a rare start on the wing.
Verdict: Hurricanes (-23.5) 9/10
The ‘Canes have named a very strong squad for Saturday’s encounter and I reckon they’ll cruise to victory over this young Highlanders side.
Blues 4/10 | Draw 25/1 | Chiefs 2/1 (09:05)
Handicap
Blues (-7.5) 9/10 | Chiefs (+7.5) 9/10
The game of the round is next up with the Blues taking on the Chiefs in Auckland. The hosts currently sit atop the log but are only their on points differential and have the Hurricanes breathing down their necks. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are in fourth place and are unlikely to change positions with the Brumbies five points clear of them in third place.
The two sides head into Saturday’s clash off the back of narrow Round 14 derby defeats, with a late from Hurricane’s pivot Brett Cameron seeing the Chiefs pipped 17-10 by the ‘Canes, while the Crusaders inflicted upon the Blues only their second defeat of the campaign with Auckland’s finest going down 29-27 to their old foes.
Team selection was always going to be an interesting one here and the Blues have opted to go pretty much full strength with Dalton Papali’i and Caleb Clarke getting starts while Finlay Christie is set to return off the bench. The Chiefs will also welcome back some key players for this one as Samipeni Finau returns on the flank while Naitoa Ah Kuoi joins him in the forward pack.
Verdict: Chiefs (+7.5) 9/10
I reckon we’re in for a tight one in Auckland. The Blues should take it but the Chiefs will keep it within a narrow handicap.
Force 17/10 | Draw 20/1 | Brumbies 5/10 (11:35)
Handicap
Force (+5.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (-5.5) 9/10
Our final game of the weekend is an Aussie derby which pits a desperate Western Force side up against a Brumbies outfit looking to sneak up the ladder. The hosts need the Drua to lose this weekend and record a result here to make the quarter-finals while the Brumbies would need both the Blues and Hurricanes to slip up to move into pole position.
The two sides head into the final round-robin clash off very different results with the hosts hammered 59-13 by the Reds, while the Brumbies cruised to a 53-17 victory over the Rebels in Canberra.
With a finish in the top two still a realistic outcome, the Brumbies have named a very strong squad for Saturday’s clash with limited changes as Blake Schoupp replaces the injured James Slipper while Rory Scott comes in on the flank.
The Force have made a few more changes than their opponents with the biggest of the bunch seeing Wallaby Sam Carter return at lock while Max Burey replaces Ben Donaldson at fly-half.
Verdict: Brumbies (-5.5) 9/10
They’ve a class apart from all the other Aussie sides this term and I expect them to demonstrate that this Saturday.
