PREVIEW: Super Rugby Pacific 2024 – Round 1

Super Rugby’s new(est) dawn begins in as we enter a new World Cup cycle. There’s change aplenty across Super Rugby Pacific with plenty of coaches and players moving on including one of the most successful managers in the history of the competition, Scott Robertson.

As we enter the unknown, our scribe gives his predictions for the six opening-round fixtures.

Chiefs v Crusaders | Friday 23 February | FMG Stadium Waikato | 08:05

Chiefs 5/10 | Draw 20/1 | Crusaders 17/10

Handicap
Chiefs (-5.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (+5.5) 9/10

What a way to start things off! A repeat of last season’s final is first up with reigning champions the Canterbury Crusaders making the trip to Waikato to take on the Waikato Chiefs.

These two sides currently top the betting boards to take tournament honours, which is no surprise considering the Crusaders’ dominance in Super Rugby and the Chiefs having an absolutely stacked side.

While pre-season results are never a great indicator of things to come as coaches often shuffle things around, neither side really shot the lights out in pre-season with the Chiefs beating Japanese Top League outfit Kubota Spears and going down to the Auckland Blues, while the Crusaders lost to URC side Munster and domestic foes the Highlanders while beating English team the Bristol Bears.

Both coaches have announced their matchday squads for this one with the Chiefs fielding a stacked side that features All Blacks Damien McKenzie at fly-half, Quinn Tupaea and Anton Lienert-Brown in the centres and impressive young locks Naitoa Ah Kuoi andTupou Vaa’i.

While the Chiefs have an established international pulling the strings at fly-half, the Crusaders will have young gun Rivez Reihana filling the vacated fly-half jersey. He’s part of a young but dynamic backline that features Dallas Mcleod, Macca Springer and Chay Finaki. The Crusaders do boast more experience up front, however, with their pack containing All Blacks George Bower, Scott Barrett and Tamati Williams.

Verdict: Chiefs (-5.5) 9/10

I have a feeling this Crusaders side will have a rather slow start to the campaign as they adjust to a new coaching regime and system. My money is on the Chiefs taking advantage of this and beating the handicap in the opener.

Rebels v Brumbies | Friday 23 February | AAMI Park | 10:35

Rebels 2/1 | Draw 22/1 | Brumbies 4/10

Handicap
Rebels (+7.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10

We cross the Tasman for our next fixture which will see a Melbourne Rebels side in turmoil take on the most impressive of the Aussie franchises, the Brumbies.

The hosts went into administration a month out from the kick-off of the tournament due to financial issues and there were a whole lot of issues for them to face leading into Friday’s fixture with the franchise only confirming that they will actually be able to sell tickets for the game this Monday. Surely this uncertainty has hampered their build-up for their opener?

If we look at the preseason results posted by the Rebels, it would seem the above hasn’t rung true with the Melbourners registering wins over the Waratahs (38-12) and the Drua (26-21).

Like their opponents for Saturday, the Brumbies also went two from two in preseason beating the Drua (43-40) and the Western Force (22-20). While those wins aren’t indicative of what is to come, the Brumbies will be looking to be far more clinical on attack and defence this weekend as they were guilty of conceding some soft tries against the Drua and coughing up numerous points-scoring chances against the Force.

In terms of team news for this one, the Brumbies have a good blend of experience and exciting young prospects running out in their starting XV with Wallabies James Slipper, Nick Frost and Rob Valentini providing experience in the pack while their backline features Len Ikitau, Tom Wright and Andy Muirhead.

On the Rebels side of things, there’s far less experience in the starting pack but they do have a couple of solid forwards on their bench including Alex Mafi and new signing Taniela Tupou.

Verdict: Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10

I really like the look of this Brumbies side, especially their pack who I reckon will dominate proceedings and hand the hosts a big win. I also think that Noah Lolesio will get the better of rival fly-half Carter Gordon as the duo look to stake their claims for the Wallaby ten jumper.

Force v Hurricanes | Friday 23 February | HBF Park | 13:00

Force 3/1 | Draw 25/1 | Hurricanes 1/4

Handicap
Force (+10.5) 9/10| Hurricanes (-10.5) 9/10

We close Friday’s proceedings off with our first cross-conference affair which will see the Western Force take on the Hurricanes in Perth. There’s a lot of opportunism floating around the host side’s camp as they have made some smart acquisitions during the off-season. Whether these acquisitions will bear fruit and see them make a play-off is up for debate as the men from Perth have been underachievers in every iteration of Super Rugby that they have participated in.

While the Force failed to make the play-offs off last season, the Hurricanes went better finishing fifth at the close of the regular season before being knocked out by the Brumbies in the quarter-finals. They are primed for a solid season this time around, with their young guns like Ruben Love having a season’s worth of experience under their belts.

Looking at the two sides’ pre-season results, the hosts gave a decent enough account of themselves losing by just two points to the Brumbies and beating the Reds by two points, while the Hurricanes suffered a (52-19) defeat at the hands of the Highlanders and the beat the Blues (38-24) and Moana Pasifika (59-26).

The Force will hand debuts to their two standout signings with Wallabies Nic White and Ben Donaldson forming the starting halfback pairing. While they are part of a handy backline, the ‘Canes are fielding a very tidy backline of their own with Jordie Barrett, Billy Proctor and Ruben Love players to keep your eyes on.

While the Force backline looks equally matched to their opponents on paper, the ‘Canes seem to have the edge in the forwards with Asafao Aumua, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Peter Lakai and Du’Plessis Kirifi posing massive threats at the breakdown and in open play.

Verdict: Force (+10.5) 9/10

While I fancy the ‘Canes to be one of the real challengers this term, I can see the Force giving them a real run here which is why I’m on the plus handicap.

Blues v Fijian Drua | Saturday 24 February | Eden Park | 05:35

Blues 1/12 | Draw 33/1 | Drua 13/2

Handicap
Blues (-17.5) 9/10 | Drua (+17.5) 9/10

Moving over to Saturday’s action now we start things off with a tasty old affair that sees the Blues take on the Drua. The hosts managed to advance to the semi-finals last season where they were hammered 52-15 by a red-hot Crusaders outfit while the Drua exited a stage earlier as they were also trounced by the eventual champions who beat them 49-8.

The Blues may have lost a couple of key players during the off-season with Beauden Barrett and Scott Robertson part of a handful of players that left the franchise, but they will still field a vastly experienced side which will feature the likes of new signing Angus Ta’avao as well as his fellow All Blacks Hoskins Sotutu, Caleb Clarke, Rieko Ioane and Mark Talea. They also have the brilliant one-cap All Black Stephen Perofeta ready to take over play-making duties from the departed Barrett.

The Drua have also bled a couple players during the off-season but still look a serious threat with Iosefo Masi and Frank Lomani two players who could well give their opponents issues this weekend.

Verdict: Drua (+17.5) 9/10

The Blues have won the last two clashes between the sides by 16 and 17 points so the handicap looks pretty well set. As it’s Round 1, I reckon there will be a couple of errors from the Auckland outfit which could cost them points. With this in mind, I reckon the Drua on the plus is the way to go here.

Highlanders v Moana Pasifika | Saturday 24 February | Forsyth Barr Stadium | 08:05

Highlanders 1/5 | Draw 33/1 | Moana Pasifika 7/2

Handicap
Highlanders (-11.5) 9/10 | Moana Pasifika (+10.5) 9/10

The penultimate game of Round 1 sees the much-hyped Highlanders take on perennial whipping boys, Moana Pasifika. The hosts will be full of confidence for this one having enjoyed a great pre-season that saw them claim massive wins over the Hurricanes and Crusaders. 

While the Highlanders fared well in pre-season, the same can’t be said of Moana Pasifika who lost 59-26 to the Hurricanes and then 36-28 to this weekend’s opponents. They actually led for the majority of their clash with the Highlanders but were unable to secure a morale-boosting win.

The Highlanders have wasted no time in throwing new boy Rhys Patchell into the mix, with the Welshman starting at ten this weekend. It will be extremely interesting to see how he goes with scrumhalf Folau Fakatava, who is being touted as the heir apparent to Aaron Smith’s vacated All Black jumper.

On Moana Pasifika’s side of things, they will also unleash a couple new boys on Saturday with James Lay, Julian Savea and Nigel Ah Wong all getting starts.

Verdict: Moana Pasifika (+11.5) 9/10

I reckon this Highlanders side is being rather overhyped and that this handicap is too high. My money is on the plus again here.

Reds v Waratahs | Saturday 24 February | Suncorp Stadium | 11:05

Reds 5/10 | Draw 20/1 | Waratahs 17/10

Handicap
Reds (-5.5) 9/10 | Waratahs (+5.5) 9/10

It’s an Aussie derby to close things out with Reds and Waratahs going head-to-head at the Suncorp Stadium. Both sides had decent enough 2023 seasons, bowing out at the quarter-final stage with the Reds going down 29-20 to the Chiefs and the Waratahs beaten 41-12 by the Blues.

These two sides actually met in pre-season with the the Reds winning the fixture 32-7. They then lost their next fixture going down 19-21 to the Force, while the Waratahs lost 38-12 to the Rebels.

In terms of team news for this one, the Reds have a very strong backline with Tate McDermot and Tom Lyngah the starting halfback pairing while Hunter Paisami and Jordan Petaia are outside them.

The battle of the backlines should actually be a very intriguing one with the Waratahs fielding Izaia Perese and Mark Nawaqanitawase. The latter is a surprise inclusion as he was tipped to be switching to Rugby League only a few weeks ago.

Verdict: Waratahs (+5.5) 9/10

Despite both sides having very talented backlines, I reckon this one will be littered with errors as players try and shake the off-season cobwebs. As such, I reckon things will be close here which is why I am once again on the plus handicap.