The round robin stage of this season’s URC concludes this weekend with some mouth-watering SA and Irish derbies on show as the outcome of the playoff places and Shields are decided.
Friday 31 May
Leinster 1/10 | Draw 33/1 | Connacht 6/1 (20:35)
Handicap
Leinster (-16.5) 17/20 | Connacht (+16.5) 17/20
Knowing the character in this Leinster team, one would think they’ll be going all out to rebound from their third straight Champions Cup final defeat last week. Leo Cullen’s charges will be hurting big time after that familiar disappointment, and the bad news for the rest of the URC contingent is they’ll be channelling that emotion into an all-out assault on this year’s title. They’re third, but a bonus-point win could potentially see them finish top come the end of the weekend.
Connacht’s top eight hopes look to have passed them by following last week’s dispiriting home loss to the Stormers. Lying 10th, four points off the playoff spots, nothing less than a bonus-point win in Dublin will be enough to keep them in the running, and even that may not be enough.
Verdict: Leinster (-16.5) 17/20
Leinster to ease to a comfortable win.
Glasgow N/A | Draw 45/1 | Zebre 14/1 (20:35)
Handicap
Glasgow (-34.5) 17/20 | Zebra (+34.5) 17/20
Fourth-placed Warriors can’t finish any lower after what has been an exceptional campaign so far. With a home quarter-final at the Scotstoun locked in next week, Franco Smith’s boys will be out to put themselves in a position to climb even higher on the log and secure what would be a second straight Italian-Scottish Shield.
Bottom-ranked Zebre’s season ends here, one that started so brightly but ultimately played out like so many others before it. Coming up against this powerful and focused Glasgow lineup, it’s unlikely they’ll get opportunities to fire many shots.
Verdict: Glasgow (34.5) 17/20
Glasgow to rack up a big score at the Scotstoun.
Saturday 1 June
Stormers 7/20 | Draw 20/1 | Lions 24/10 (13:45)
Handicap
Stormers (-6.5) 17/20 | Lions (+6.5) 17/20
Play-off and Champions Cup qualification is assured for John Dobson’s side, who could claim what would be a third straight SA Shield this weekend. They’re fifth and can’t finish lower than seventh but will be going all out to win a fourth game in a row and take invaluable momentum into the playoffs.
Should the ninth-ranked Joburgers claim a bonus-point win, they will leapfrog the loser of the Benetton/ Edinburgh match and qualify for the play-offs. If Ulster don’t earn any log points in their fixture at Munster and the Lions get five in Cape Town, they will play Champions Cup rugby next season. Unfortunately for the Joburg side, that looks like a tall order at this stage.
Verdict: Stormers 7/20
The Stormers should be too strong for this dogged Lions team in the Cape.
Benetton 72/100 | Draw 25/1 | Edinburgh 12/10 (14:00)
Handicap
Benetton (-2.5) 17/20 | Edinburgh (+2.5) 17/20
Benetton host Edinburgh at the Stadio Comunale in what could be a straight shootout for a play-off spot. The Italian outfit are eighth, level on points with the seventh-placed away side albeit having won one less game. That said, Marco Bortolami’s charges will be confident of bagging the result given their impressive home record that includes just one defeat in 12 matches this season.
Sean Everitt’s side were vanquished by two points in November’s reverse fixture and must overcome more injury trouble, this time in the form of makeshift full-back Wes Goosen, if they are to get the win in Treviso.
Verdict: Benetton 72/100
Benetton’s home record is the envy of many other clubs and could give them the edge they need to knock Edinburgh out of the competition.
Scarlets 41/100 | Draw 20/1 | Dragons 21/10 (16:00)
Handicap
Scarlets (-5.5) 17/20 | Dragons (+5.5) 17/20
14th-placed Scarlets welcome Dragons to Parc y Scarlets eager to end their underwhelming campaign on a high. They’ll be buoyed by their recent win at Zebre and the fact that a similar result in Llanelli could see them finish as high as second on the Welsh Shield standings. They head into the weekend third, one point behind Cardiff.
Dragons are 15th but could lift themselves off the bottom of the Welsh Shield with a big enough win on Saturday. Unfortunately for them the odds won’t be in their favour.
Verdict: Scarlets 41/100
Scarlets to get the job done at home.
Hollywoodbets Sharks 6/1 | Draw 25/1 | Bulls 1/11 (16:10)
Handicap
Sharks (+15.5) 17/20 | Bulls (-15.5) 17/20
John Plumtree’s Challenge Cup champions will be highly motivated to end their rocky season on a high and potentially prevent the Bulls from both finishing top of the log and winning this season’s SA Shield. The Sharks were thrashed 44-10 at Loftus in December but the added confidence clinching silverware brings may be the boost they need to upset Jake White’s plans ahead of the playoffs.
The visitors are second overall with 61 log points so far and a home quarterfinal in the bag. There’ll be no room for complacency though, with victory set to seal them the SA Shield and potentially even more given they trail leaders Munster by just two points. With Leinster (third) and Glasgow (fourth) locked on 60 points each though, defeat for the Bulls could spell the end of their home semi-final and/ or final hopes.
Verdict: Sharks (+15.5) 17/20
I’m on the Sharks to edge this, but the 15.5-point handicap looks way too big in my opinion. Get on.
Munster 1/9 | Draw 28/1 | Ulster 6/1 (18:15)
Handicap
Munster (-13.5) 17/20 | Ulster (+13.5) 17/20
Log-leading defending champions Munster can secure top spot by seeing off Ulster at Thomond Park. Graham Rowntree’s side are enjoying an eight-game winning run and that momentum will surely come in handy as they look to consolidate their position in what will be a fiercely competitive encounter.
Ulster already booked themselves a ticket to the playoffs thanks to their round 17 defeat of Leinster, their fourth win on the spin, but can also claim the Irish Shield with another on Saturday. Sitting sixth and with the real threat of potentially falling short of Champions Cup qualification, they won’t die wondering against their bitter rivals in Limerick.
Verdict: Ulster (+13.5) 17/20
It’ll be a tight one but get on the hosts to secure top spot with victory here.
Cardiff 16/10 | Draw 20/1 | Ospreys 11/20 (18:30)
Handicap
Cardiff (+5.5) 17/20 | Ospreys (-5.5) 17/20
Despite their opponents this week having already wrapped up the Welsh Shield, Cardiff can secure 12th place with a win at Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday. Matt Sherratt’s troops smacked a second-string Sharks team 36-14 in Durban last week to leapfrog them on the log, and a fifth win of the campaign would ensure they hang on to that placing.
Ospreys are 11th on 45 points and still in with an outside chance of sneaking into the post-season. In all likelihood however, they will complete their campaign in the Welsh capital on Saturday.
Verdict: Ospreys 5/10
The visitors to edge it in Cardiff.
