Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid | Tuesday 29 April | Allianz Arena | 20:45
Real Madrid’s intense rearguard action at the Bernabeu may have been a surreal experience for Madrid fans accustomed to the almost arrogant dominance of their side, but it also reflected perhaps the only sane way to dismantle the Bavarian juggernaut at present. Pep Guardiola has fashioned a side that are fiendishly adept at maintaining possession in all areas of the pitch, but any team in the world is vulnerable to the counterattacking prowess of both Gareth Bale and the iconic Cristiano Ronaldo. In a strange way, this tie could suit the Spaniard contingent more given that the onus is on the defending champions to dictate the tempo of the match. In any event, this tie looks perfectly poised to go in any possible direction.
To Win (90mins)
Bayern Munich 7/10
Draw 28/10
Real Madrid 36/10
Bayern Munich
Bayern’s slightly lethargic performance last week seemed to carry some of the unwanted deceleration they acquired in their post-Bundesliga triumph malaise. Mandzukic cut an increasingly isolated figure up front, while Arjen Robben seemed to be the only one capable of creating anything in the defensive cauldron created by the home side. Mario Gotze may have to be deployed in an effort to create some more incision, as Toni Kroos offered little in the way of penetration last week. Javi Martinez may also be introduced in an attempt to solidify the defence, as Pep has to recognise that Philipp Lahm’s best role is in the right full back position, especially with the attacking potential that Madrid have in the wide areas.
Just the threat of Gotze’s through passing should bring Ribery and Robben back into the area of play. Muller and Kroos are both solid players with the ability to retain possession, but perhaps lack the added dynamism brought by the former Dortmund prodigy. Bayern are an excellent side, of that there is no doubt. But their almost dogmatic focus on possession and a measured build-up can sometimes create a predictability in their calculated play. And with the counterattacking threat offered by Madrid, that could spell danger for the defending champions.
Real Madrid
Despite the fact that they enjoyed only thirty percent of possession last week, Real will feel that they should have added to their slender advantage. Ronaldo and Di Maria both missed glaring opportunities that could have proved decisive in the end. Carlo Ancelotti’s side were quite devastating on the counter last week and should be welcoming back a fully fit Gareth Bale into the fold. This will probably see Isco relegated to the bench is an effort to open up the width of the field. Casillas will continue to deputise in the absence of the injured Diego Lopez while Carvajal similarly fills in for the injured Arbeloa at right-back.
Modric will be a key figure in this match, as Bayern will be forced to impress themselves on the game. This should afford some space to the influential playmaker whose range of passing will be critical in launching the counterattacks that Real thrive on. It was on show last week and could prove the difference between the sides if he enjoys enough possession. Ramos and Pepe will have to guard against their occasionally gung-ho approach to the art of defending, while the ever reliable Alonso shields the back four.
VERDICT: Bayern Munich 7/10
Real’s last away performance in the Champions League was their nerve shredding quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund, where the Catalan giants almost surrendered a three goal lead to the German side. With a fully fit Bale and Ronaldo however, Real should be able to acquire the away goal necessary to decimate the home side’s fanatical support. Bayern should enjoy the lion’s share of possession, but will not be able to permanently withstand the Real onslaught. Bayern to take the battle, with Robben proving influential, while Real win the war. If you’re looking for similar value and less risk, Both Teams to Score at 6/10 looks as good a pick.
