Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid | Wednesday 30 April | Stamford Bridge | 20:45
The latest twist in the Premier League title race was perhaps the craziest one thus far. Chelsea, beset by larger European concerns, managed to fandangle an unlikely victory and defeat a rampant Liverpool side. Atletico, the fairytale story thus far on the continent, were probably hoping to deal with a psychologically depleted Chelsea side this week in the wake of recent results. The entire complexion of this second leg has been transformed by that result at Anfield, adding some gloss to what initially appeared to be a less glamorous eliminator. Atletico have remained more frugal and dogged than anyone could have expected; they stand on the brink of unprecedented greatness in the capable hands of Diego Simeone. This fixture will no doubt be just as nerve-wracking as its predecessor, as both sides stand on the cusp of a final that will be as unlikely as it is deserved.
To Win (90mins)
Chelsea 5/4
Draw 21/10
Atletico Madrid 23/10
Chelsea
Jose Mourinho, ever the humble diplomat, will see the weekend’s result against Liverpool as an added bonus leading up to this all-important tie. It will be interesting to see how he chooses to approach it, with a credible away draw counterbalanced by the lack of a crucial away goal. The onus will be on Chelsea to force the issue, but knowing Jose, we will likely see an emphasis on stoic counter-attacking football that will look to exploit the vertiginous pace of Willian and Co. The suspensions of Mikel and Lampard will simplify matters of selection, as Luiz and Ramires will almost certainly be the cogs that drive the midfield forward. Eto’o may start up front, injury depending, as Torres counts the seconds down on what has been a rather ignominious spell at Chelsea thus far.
The aura of Stamford Bridge has been diminished slightly in the aftermath of that surreal defeat to Sunderland, especially considering the magnitude of the opposition this week. However, the astute European pedigree of both Mourinho and Chelsea will give them more than a puncher’s chance in this tricky second leg fixture. Hazard, Willian and Schurrle will likely be the supporting trio, while John Terry will probably make a welcome return to the heart of defence. Chelsea are looking to make it to their third Champions League final, but in Atletico they face a stern examination of their European credentials.
Atletico Madrid
The fairytale ride of Atletico Madrid will come under intense scrutiny at Stamford Bridge this week. They are the only undefeated side remaining in the competition, knowing that a score draw will be enough to see them safely through to Lisbon. However, this is their first appearance in the semi-finals for forty years, while Chelsea have made it to this stage six times in the Abramovich era. They will have to overcome a sizable gap in know-how, hoping that Diego Costa may ignite in a way that he completely failed to do in the first leg.
Simeone will do well to go in an attacking direction, ignoring the immediate impulse to tighten up and go with the tide. Turan had an extremely positive impact when he came on in the second half in Madrid, forcing his way into contention for Simeone’s selection plans. Things just never quite clicked in Spain last week and the influence of Costa and Koke was sorely missed in their performance. They may be afforded more room with Chelsea forced to dictate the pace somewhat and we may get to see some of their intricate synchronicity this week.
VERDICT: Chelsea 5/4
Chelsea will be a persistent threat at set-pieces, having a physical dominance over their opponents that almost nullifies the greater skill on show in the Atletico side. However, I can’t see this gutsy Spanish side not scoring when their season hangs in such a critical balance. As with the Munich-Real extravaganza, I expect a positive result for the home side, but the Both Teams to Score market could be safer at 11/10.
