Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich | Wednesday 23 April | Santiago Bernabéu | 20:45
The final that many dreamed of will instead be an epic two leg duel; a demonstration of the finest footballing talent in Europe. Real Madrid’s epic Cup final win, courtesy of some Welsh wizardry by Gareth Bale, will no doubt galvanise the Galacticos as they continue their quest for that much vaunted ‘La Decima’. Bayern Munich’s recent dip in form should not obscure the broader truth of their season thus far. The Bundesliga is secured, they have booked their spot in the German Cup final, and they stand on the precipice of their third consecutive Champions League final. This magnificent clash of European dynasties should be an absolute humdinger.
To Win (90mins)
Real Madrid 27/20
Draw 24/10
Bayern Munich 19/10
Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti has repeatedly stated of late that winning the European crown was the primary goal for Real this season. The second leg against Dortmund left them hanging on more than they would have wanted, and they know now that they have to overcome perhaps their greatest European rivals, as well as their arch-nemesis; Pep Guardiola. Cristiano Ronaldo should have overcome his injury concerns and will provide a real threat in wide areas alongside the flying Bale. It will be critical for Bale and Ronaldo to keep Ribery and Robben honest on the flanks, and this exact duel may be the key to this tie.
Khedira remains sidelined, which will likely see Illarramendi partner Alonso in midfield. Modric will be the creative force while Isco and Di Maria offer support on the bench. Marcelo is back in training, while Varane and Ramos continue to grow as a defensive combination. Surely that will be the prudent option, as Pepe is a ticking time bomb that is waiting to implode at any moment. Madrid will be under a great deal of pressure, seeking ascendancy going into their return leg next week. But in Munich, they find a side on the brink of an unprecedented back-to-back treble success .
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich’s recent slump can be contributed to pre-glory malaise. Their well-oiled juggernaut has not really had a game of real significance since their victory over United, and Pep will be keen to dispel any growing doubts about his side’s aspirations. Neuer has rubbished talks about his injury status, while Schweinsteiger returns after serving his suspension. Thiago Alcantara remains sidelined, which should see Gotze playing just behind Mandzukic. Alaba is apparently under the weather, which may necessitate a backline reshuffle that could see versatile captain Lahm return to a more familiar full-back position.
Robben and Ribery provide an interesting contrast to both Bale and Ronaldo. Bale and Ronaldo are probably a slightly quicker combination, but the Robben-Ribery pairing offers both pace and a broader team responsibility. Munich’s one advantage is a far more compact defensive unit that will need to repel an aggressive home side. Mandzukic should cause some problems to a potentially rash central defensive unit, while Gotze and Modric have their own duel in the creative midfield roles. This should be an extremely open game, as Bayern search for valuable away goals and Real attempt to stamp their authority before a daunting trip to Germany.
VERDICT: Draw 24/10
Real could potentially create more chances in the overall scheme of the game, but Munich’s slightly more solid defensive unit should limit the damage done by the dynamic Ronaldo and Bale. Bayern will be clinical in attack and should be able to wreak havoc down the flanks. Carvajal will come under close scrutiny, deputising for the injured Arbeloa. This supremacy on the flanks should counteract the maverick qualities of both Bale and Ronaldo, setting up an entertaining game and result that will suit the away side more. If you’re nervous of the draw, over 2.5 goals at 13/20 is a sound bet.
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